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Search: Posts Made By: TrifectaMike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-15-2015, 03:28 PM
Replies: 307
Views: 42,049
Posted By TrifectaMike
ML, My first calculus textbook, "Elements of...

ML,

My first calculus textbook, "Elements of The Differential and Integral Calculus", by Granville and Smith, Copyright 1904, given to me by my seventh grade math teacher. That book was my...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-15-2014, 02:18 PM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
Thanks. As of now, based on prior beliefs...

Thanks.

As of now, based on prior beliefs and the evidence, the posterior probability suggests, I will not be posting.

Mike
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-15-2014, 11:44 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
Thanks and the same to you. By the way, your...

Thanks and the same to you.

By the way, your little gift is NOT so little.

Mike
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-15-2014, 11:36 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
Let's make this simple. If there aren't at least...

Let's make this simple. If there aren't at least 10 people who find my posts useful, I'll simply stop posting.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-15-2014, 11:19 AM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,280
Posted By TrifectaMike
A major reason is that there is an infinite...

A major reason is that there is an infinite number of ways to achieve that 1:10.2

Mike
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-15-2014, 11:15 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
That is why inference is so critical. Mike

That is why inference is so critical.

Mike
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-15-2014, 10:35 AM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
This a TERRIFIC post!!!!! Mike

This a TERRIFIC post!!!!!

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-15-2014, 08:04 AM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,280
Posted By TrifectaMike
I agree a power law is better as you suggested,...

I agree a power law is better as you suggested, if you want to work with point estimates.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-15-2014, 07:37 AM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,280
Posted By TrifectaMike
Here , in the states, as useless as balls on a...

Here , in the states, as useless as balls on a chick. That "info" and a stolen metro card "may" get you on a train.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-14-2014, 07:04 PM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,280
Posted By TrifectaMike
DL, even if there is a measurable difference,...

DL, even if there is a measurable difference, what would you do with it?

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-13-2014, 03:46 AM
Replies: 435
Views: 39,280
Posted By TrifectaMike
Thask, you've made some good points, but not...

Thask, you've made some good points, but not entirely accurate.

The game is a mathematical problem waiting to be solved, "unlike the theory of gravity".

When one, as yourself, speaks of a...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-11-2014, 12:01 PM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,791
Posted By TrifectaMike
AITrader, a "real" Benter guy, from across the...

AITrader, a "real" Benter guy, from across the pond. An interesting and very sharp fellow. AITrader come back and say hello.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-01-2014, 09:35 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
Raybo, read post #55 Precious Mike

Raybo, read post #55

Precious Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-01-2014, 05:50 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
Raybo, read post 91. Precious Mike

Raybo, read post 91.

Precious Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-01-2014, 08:50 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
People are not very good at choosing a purely...

People are not very good at choosing a purely random sequence.

"Shannon-machine example" essentially exploits the fact that people do not behave as "randomly" as they think they do.

I believe...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-30-2014, 11:02 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
This might help or not! Let's look at a...

This might help or not!

Let's look at a finite sequence of length, k. For demonstration purposes, let k = 20.

One way to proceed. First a histogram table would be generated showing the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-28-2014, 07:51 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
Too muich confusion.... Put all the data,...

Too muich confusion....

Put all the data, table, criteria, aside for the moment

Let 2 represent that PP2 beats PP1
Let 1 represent that PP1 beats PP2

In a series of races, we have the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-26-2014, 02:39 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
Dl, Expected Win % for PP1 = Odds Ratio for...

Dl,

Expected Win % for PP1 = Odds Ratio for PP1/ (Odds Ratio for PP1 + Odds Ratio for PP2)

Odds Ratios based on your table for long term stats and Expected Win % for PP1 is for a single event....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-26-2014, 01:13 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 28,870
Posted By TrifectaMike
A marriage of what you suggest with Dave's monte...

A marriage of what you suggest with Dave's monte hall thingy might have possibilities.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-14-2014, 07:12 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 6,622
Posted By TrifectaMike
Hi lansdale, Following the flow of money bet...

Hi lansdale,

Following the flow of money bet to determine "informed" betting is chaotic at best. Identifying "bad" money is doable. And leads to more stable solutions and useful information for...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-12-2014, 09:16 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 2,158
Posted By TrifectaMike
More importantly, DL has a methodology in place,...

More importantly, DL has a methodology in place, which allows him to assess how well (or not) the public treats the data derived factors as expressed by the odds.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-12-2014, 09:00 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 6,622
Posted By TrifectaMike
Robert, you might find this useful (down the...

Robert, you might find this useful (down the road).

I kinda left this hanging. I've given it some thought, and I believe I have a way of explaining in understandable terms without giving up too...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-11-2014, 11:13 PM
Replies: 194
Views: 26,984
Posted By TrifectaMike
Precious. Mike

Precious.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2014, 08:42 AM
Replies: 194
Views: 26,984
Posted By TrifectaMike
Just a simple tale. Seeking a solution to...

Just a simple tale. Seeking a solution to question A and discovering something more important.

Mike
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2014, 08:38 AM
Replies: 194
Views: 26,984
Posted By TrifectaMike
With a Hierarchical Bayes Model Mike

With a Hierarchical Bayes Model

Mike
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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