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-   -   Klein Speed Calculator! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24897)

Maxspa 01-04-2006 07:24 PM

Klein Speed Calculator!
 
All,
Bob Pitlak has developed a new software based upon Klein's book "The Power of Early Speed" The new program will list the Klein Speed points for all the horses on the card using both the BRIS and TSN single format files as well as calculate the Track Bias Number from the BRIS comma -delimited result charts.
His website is http://sports-bet-advantage.com
Maxspa

Speed Figure 01-04-2006 07:51 PM

I love how his programs never have the horses program number.

Sly7449 01-06-2006 10:57 PM

Program On Hold
 
Greetings,

I sent in an Order for this tool however, I was notified that they were on hold due to a Claim Of Foul by DRF.

Negiotations are in the works. Hope that the price won't go up once the dust settles.

Why didn't Steve think of designing a Program to match the book?

L8R

Sly

cj 01-07-2006 06:27 AM

I don't see how in the world DRF could stop him, that is total BS. The man published it in a book, it is free information. The bias rating is in my program already, if they want it out, I'd love to see them try to stop me.

cj 01-07-2006 10:35 AM

I read this again to make sure, and I don't see any way the guy would be doing anything wrong. He provides a program, the user still has to have bought PPs or comma delimited charts to make it work. It would be different if he bought PPs, made the ratings, then turned around and sold those, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

The guy put mechanical systems in a book that people paid money for, how could he (or DRF) then possibly turn around and say you can't try to implement them?

Something doesn't seem right here, I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Tom 01-07-2006 11:04 AM

DRF probably counting on bullying people with thier size and unmlimited lawyer funds. But I agee - can't see how they hav ea leg to stand on. How many programs have Quirin speed points in them?

I would much rather see DRF do something constructive, like study the KSP and prove they are worth anything at all. I have serious doubts that they area worth the time it takes to caluclate them. If they were so damn good, why didn't DRF put out a study for the book? I suspect they ran one and found, after the book was written, that the KPS were nothing more than fun with numbers, like most of what DRF puts on the market aside from the PP's.

In this day and age, guys like Klein need to know that you can no longer get away with crap statements like " my numbers improve on the QPS....." without proof. More DRF snake oil! Do KSP cure gout as well? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Lefty 01-07-2006 12:04 PM

cj, cause it's in a book doesn't mean you can put them in another form and sell them. Sure, you can use book content for your own use but you're infringing on copyright when you sell to others. I saw this one coming.

headhawg 01-07-2006 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj
The guy put mechanical systems in a book that people paid money for, how could he (or DRF) then possibly turn around and say you can't try to implement them?

Something doesn't seem right here, I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Isn't the argument that the material is copyrighted -- not public domain -- and it would be ok for the individual person to automate the KSP process for personal use, but a commercial entity using the "system" to sell products for profit would be verboten based on intellectual property law?

I'm not a lawyer and I hope it's not true but that's what I'm thinking.

cj 01-07-2006 12:23 PM

I don't even see why they would want to stop it. It can only help sell PPs or charts, if they are ever for sale. It certainly can't hurt.

People who read Andy Beyer's book started making speed figures and selling them, was this illegal? I doubt it, but like I said, I guess we'll find out the stance sooner or later.

socantra 01-07-2006 03:17 PM

Probably a kneejerk reaction from the DRF, OR they plan on marketing the ratings themselves.

I don't really see how the technique could be copyrighted, but possibly the use of Klein's name and the DRF book in connection with the marketing of the program could be shaky.

socantra...

Overlay 01-07-2006 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by socantra
Probably a kneejerk reaction from the DRF, OR they plan on marketing the ratings themselves.

I don't really see how the technique could be copyrighted, but possibly the use of Klein's name and the DRF book in connection with the marketing of the program could be shaky.

socantra...

From a layman's standpoint, I would think that acknowledging that the information or program was based on Klein's methodology (that is, giving him due credit for it and not representing the basic method as one's own) would be a necessary condition for proper, authorized usage.

Dan Montilion 01-07-2006 04:46 PM

Kind of hard to believe that all of this foolishness is really just about who has speed and who does'nt.

Dan Montilion

Sly7449 01-07-2006 05:15 PM

DRF Files?
 
Greetings,

This mentioned software indicated that it uses either BRIS or TSN files. I cannot recall seeing where it can use DRF Files, Hmmmm.

All that it may take is to include the option for the User to utilize DRF, BRIS or TSN Files and maybe others.

Currently, I know of the Tomlinson Figures are only available from DRF. Does DRF intend to manipulate Klein Figures as they have with the Tomlinson's?

Hmmmmm

L8R

Sly

Tom 01-07-2006 06:19 PM

DRF says they have some kind of pace figures coming out...maybe they are incorporating the KSP into them????

Still, un-validated numbers. Quirin validated HIS points back in the seventies....DRF must still be in the sixties! :D

Vegas711 01-07-2006 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom
DRF says they have some kind of pace figures coming out...! :D

Probably with a price increase, its been a while since they last increased their price.

Speed Figure 01-07-2006 10:15 PM

He should not have used his name.

vtbob 01-08-2006 03:23 PM

Klein Speed Calculator
 
Just to clear the air. I did create a program which employed Steve Klein's work. Frankly, I loved the book and thought that if anything, the program would help book sales since nowhere in my website or in the program or documentation did I attempt to explain the calculation. I strongly recommended that the user buy the book.

Still, DRF did complain. Perhaps I was naive in using Steve's name in the title of the program. I can't see how providing a program that does the calculation is wrong, after all, how long has everyone been calculating Quirin Speed Points? In any case, I have stopped advertising or promoting the program until I resolve this with DRF.

Still, I have asked DRF what I need to do to satisfy them, even offered to let THEM sell the program. Haven't heard a word from them.

If I don't resolve this, I will modify the program, first to remove Klein's name from it, second to change some of the calculations. For example, I strongly distrust the idea of using some "penalty" calculations to adjust running in a turf route race so one can calculate points to be used in a sprint on dirt. While I like the idea of adding beaten lengths and the number of horses in the field into the calculation, I would ignore "dissimilar" races and find the best 3 of the last five races which were of the same "type." Also, after years of Quirin Speed Points, I'm uncomfortable with a speed point calculation in which lower numbers are better, I would also change that.

In any case, anyone who purchased this program before the "complaint" should not worry. I will (hopefully) ship the software this weed, or return the full purchase price.

I truly apologize for this absurd situation, and I take full blame for not considering DRF first. I hope everyone understands.

Regards,
Bob Pitlak

Tom 01-08-2006 04:10 PM

Good luck, Bob....hope you "slay the dragon!" ;)

Vegas711 01-08-2006 05:34 PM

The Question still remains are the Klein numbers any good in predicting who will get the lead? This should be a very easy thing to test, all you need is a couple of hundred races in a data base, if they pick less than 80 % of the time the leader at the first call then you will not get the ROI that the leader gets.


Randy at Paceappraiser in his latest newsletter basically said that they where no better than Quirin Speed Points and Running stlye.

46zilzal 01-08-2006 07:09 PM

lead at the 2nd call is MUCH more predictive than first call leading

Lefty 01-08-2006 08:44 PM

46 says: lead at the 2nd call is MUCH more predictive than first call leading
_________________________________________-
Oh my God, I agree!

Lefty 01-08-2006 08:47 PM

vtbob, take off Kleins name, change the numbers slightl, rename your prgm and say something like inspired by The Power Of Early Speed.

Dan Montilion 01-08-2006 08:55 PM

Leading at the finish call seems best to me.

Dan Montilion

Lefty 01-08-2006 09:06 PM

Dan M said: Leading at the finish call seems best to me
_________________________________
But not as an indication of early speed.

JimG 01-08-2006 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan Montilion
Leading at the finish call seems best to me.

Dan Montilion

Unless the stewards are awake.

Tom 01-08-2006 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lefty
46 says: lead at the 2nd call is MUCH more predictive than first call leading
_________________________________________-
Oh my God, I agree!


That's three of us...

May - December, 2005
All tracks
All races
All surfaces

# Races = 69,190
#winners leading at first call = 20,519 / 30%
#winners leading at second call = 23,513 / 33%

BillW 01-08-2006 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom
That's three of us...

May - December, 2005
All tracks
All races
All surfaces

# Races = 69,190
#winners leading at first call = 20,519 / 30%
#winners leading at second call = 23,513 / 33%

Sorry for pointing out the obvious Tom, but the closer you get to the finish line a higher pctg. of leaders at that point win the race including 100% at the finish line itself (barring DQ's etc.) :)

46zilzal 01-08-2006 09:57 PM

databases
 
Abandoned them years ago since they dilute the particular and give false confidence in the general...EACH race is distinct and throwing stats into a database dilutes what one learns from that distinctiveness.

ALSO early leaders PROJECTING into a contest do not need to be in front to win: a gross misconception about early horses which, I for one, am NOT going to try to change.

andicap 01-08-2006 09:58 PM

yes, but wouldn't it be much more difficult in predicting who will be leading at the second call. I think if you found a good way of predicting the 1st call leader you would be in decent shape considering how hard it would be to predict the second call leader.

Has anyone done any recent research on Quirin's numbers? (If this was already mentioned in this thread, I apologize --the Giants loss today has me groggy, disoriented and depressed.)

46zilzal 01-08-2006 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andicap
yes, but wouldn't it be much more difficult in predicting who will be leading at the second call. I think if you found a good way of predicting the 1st call leader you would be in decent shape considering how hard it would be to predict the second call leader.

Most OUT of shape, going off form plugs can run a quarter without falling apart. MANY MANY of them are not going to be around much after that. In a sprint the second call leader needs to have some formfulness to gain the lead after 60% of the contest is under it's belt.

Tom 01-08-2006 10:22 PM

Make up your mind - you said the second call was more predictive than the first.:confused:

Tom 01-08-2006 10:27 PM

Same sample races:

# winners leading at both 1st and 2nd call - 17,408
# winners leading at only 2nd call ( behind at 1st call) - 6,104

Different meaning this way.

46zilzal 01-08-2006 10:36 PM

still what I am saying

DRIVEWAY 01-09-2006 08:59 AM

Second Call vs. First Call
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom
Same sample races:

# winners leading at both 1st and 2nd call - 17,408
# winners leading at only 2nd call ( behind at 1st call) - 6,104

Different meaning this way.

Tom,

If you can add the following,
# Winners leading at 1st call and behind at 2nd Call
# Winners leading at 1st call
# Winners leading at 2nd call

This will shed more light on subject

The only thing left is ROI numbers

Thanks

ryesteve 01-09-2006 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY
Tom,

If you can add the following,
# Winners leading at 1st call and behind at 2nd Call
# Winners leading at 1st call
# Winners leading at 2nd call

This will shed more light on subject

Not really... we all know early speed is good. Klein went to great lengths to take something we already knew and prove it a dozen ways. I'm more interested in seeing if Klein's speed points, or some other method, is actually a reliable way of knowing who will be leading. It really doesn't matter how many winners are leading at the nth call if there's no way of consistently knowing which horse that'll be ahead of time.

DRIVEWAY 01-09-2006 10:57 AM

Speed Point Predictability
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ryesteve
Not really... we all know early speed is good. Klein went to great lengths to take something we already knew and prove it a dozen ways. I'm more interested in seeing if Klein's speed points, or some other method, is actually a reliable way of knowing who will be leading. It really doesn't matter how many winners are leading at the nth call if there's no way of consistently knowing which horse that'll be ahead of time.

You point is well taken. After 100 races using the rules to develop KSP(Klein Speed Points), was only able to generate less than forty percent leaders at the first call. The ROI was negative. I'm sure better studies will produce stronger results.

Thus the interest in 2nd call results vs 1st call results. If they are similar in results and it is easier to predict 2nd call leaders then that would be a better focus than 1st call.

In the final analysis the ability to replicate the results of the Klein study are paramount to success. Klein's analysis was that the morning line favorite won 33% with a 1.84 ROI and the first call leader won 28% with an ROI of 3.12. Klein's main point was, why spend your time trying to improve on the 1.84 ROI, when you can work at predicting the first call leader and an ROI of 3.12.

However, finding a method to successfully predict the first call leader seems unlikely.

Handiman 01-09-2006 03:08 PM

I'm about half way through building my time machine. It really took some doing getting copies of J. Verne's plans, but pretty sure I have it down. So when I'm done, I'll take bidds for rides into the future, one day ahead and then we can figure out who will be leading. Then, if all goes well we'll make it back in time to get some bets down.

Till then I believe it will remain just a crap shoot....with best guess estimates the best we can do.

Handi :cool: Yea that's right..I'm from California and I'm smoking some of that.:lol:

vtbob 01-10-2006 12:48 PM

Program No.s from files
 
I admit that several people have mentioned the lack of program numbers in my programs, so here's why.

All of my programs are outgrowths of my own handicapping attempts. While it is a trivial effort to include program numbers for horses, I stopped doing that in my own work several years ago because I found them to be unreliable. Nothing is worse than making a losing bet because you used the wrong program number, and that has happened to me on occassion. My reasoning is, "If I have to double check the accuracy of the program number before wagering, why print it at all?"

Perhaps I should reconsider.

andicap 01-10-2006 01:41 PM

Quirin results?
 
Has anyone posted how well Quirin's speed points do in predicting the first call leader?
Klein never says how well Quirin did only it did "reasonably well," but "we can do better."

What's "reasonably well," and what's "better?"

How well did Quirin do in predicting early speed and has anyone tested yet how well Klein's do? I guess the best way is look at a bunch of races and compare the Quirin to the Klein rating.
You could approach the research from several angles.

1. Compare the top rating of QSP and KSP and calcuate which one predicts the 1st call leader more.

2. Look at the first call leader and compare his QSP and KSP figures. Who is in the top 2 more often? Top 3?

One problem is Klein calls for using the 2f figure even in routes and some programs don't give you that call in routes.

Quirin will likely have far more ties given the limited breadth of his 0-8 range.

Klein also made the calucations needlessly complicated. Lets say you end up with 4.75 lengths in a 7-horse field (before subtracing and/or adding for distance/turf).
He tells you to divide 4.75 by 7 and multiply by 100.
That's plain silly.
Why not just divide 475 by 7. 68 either way. It's an easier division -- some you can do instantly in your head -- and you don't have to take the extra step. Even Tom might be able to do it. ;)

Did he do this on purpose or was he too slow to figure out an easier way to calcuate the points?

garyoz 01-10-2006 01:55 PM

I didn't read the Klein book and can think of no compelling reason to read it (based upon what I have read in this and other threads), but isn't this reinventing the wheel and giving it a new "branded" name? Are there really any ideas that haven't already been written about ad naseum concerning early speed? Or is this really a Eureka moment? I find that difficult to believe.

I'm curious, did Klein cite the earlier literature about speed handicapping in his book?


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