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-   -   Justify (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143394)

GMB@BP 02-21-2018 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2280003)
Wow! That was pretty impressive. We'll know more what Baffert thinks if he moves away from DVD and on to VEspinoza or MSmith.

I dont think that is accurate at all right now. Baffert has been using DVD on many of his good young horses right now. Owner may have something to say I suppose but doubt it.

Vinnie 02-21-2018 10:23 AM

DVD, Flavien Prat, Tyler Gaffalione, Dylan Davis, etc., etc...right now. Heck, you put any of these guys and many others that I am in no way intentionally neglecting to mention on the "Best Horse" at any given time and they will get the job done for you. The horse has always been in my estimation far more important than the passenger. If the horse isn't ready mentally, physically and fitness wise, no man or woman due to his/her own efforts is going to be able to on sheer will and intestinal fortitude "will" that magnificent, big beautiful creature home ahead of his competitors in any race. It just isn't going to happen.

ultracapper 02-21-2018 02:34 PM

If Baffert doesn't put one of the big veteran guns on him by start #3, I would take that as a negative.

Vinnie 02-21-2018 03:56 PM

If he shows the ability to stretch out his efforts with the increase in distance and the ability to carry his speed equally as well in longer races which I am of the firm belief that he will, this horse will be very tough no matter who is on him whether it be DVD, VHS, CD-R, DVR or M. Smith or V. Espinoza. LOL... :)

ultracapper 02-21-2018 04:53 PM

HA!!!

I agree that the horse will stretch out just fine.

Even with a cassette tape on his back.

Vinnie 02-21-2018 04:58 PM

You have to forgive me my silliness ultracapper. I was just playing around of course. I well understand your point believe me... :) It is a point well taken.

classhandicapper 02-21-2018 08:58 PM

I didn't think that was an especially strong MSW field, but the performance within it was impressive. He was away a little slowly, rushed up a bit, between horses briefly, put them away and drew off without being asked for his best. We'll see if he can carry that speed further and learn to rate, but that was damn good.

Spalding No! 02-21-2018 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2280259)
I agree that the horse will stretch out just fine.

While Scat Daddy has been mostly a sire of turf sprinters (at least in Europe), a mile seems to be in their wheelhouse and the odd progeny can get a classic distance (Dacita, Lady of Shamrock, Daddys Lil Darling). Not a lot of main track success as far as Graded stakes go, however.

On the bottom side, the first 3 dams all won races up to 8.5f on the main track with some minor stakes placings. The female family has produced modest stakes horses like Spellbound which won the two-turn La Canada for Richard Mandella and Preakness and Travers starter Kid Cruz who was unceremoniously dumped for $40K (and bowed a tendon and was vanned off) after 3 full seasons running in stakes races.

Speaking of claiming races, the connections of Justify's 4yo half-sister (Holiday Music, by top sire Harlan's Holiday) may have made a major flub when they dropped her in for a mere $30K claiming price last month at Fair Grounds. She won and was claimed. The new connections might not have to do much other than sit back and watch what unfolds over the next few months. They may turn a profit of astronomic proportions in one of the breeding stock sales at the end of the year if all the hype pans out.

cj 02-21-2018 09:22 PM

As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

Vinnie 02-21-2018 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2280411)
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

Very well stated CJ! For the reasons that you stated, I will remain cautiously optimistic... :)

Spalding No! 02-21-2018 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2280411)
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

That's what I was hoping for in American Pharoah, but the horse "lucked" into a bunch of paceless races for the most part and he didn't come out to race at 4. A lot of the reasons for those are the current state of both the racing and the breeding industry.

I'll settle for the next Congaree.

Lemon Drop Husker 02-22-2018 12:37 AM

When is my next opportunity to bet against a 1/9 chalk?

classhandicapper 02-22-2018 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2280411)
As a fan of the game, I hope he is the next Seattle Slew. As a bettor, I know that the majority of horses that run huge first out usually blow up sooner rather than later and that is how I'll approach the horse for now.

If we was Seattle Slew he would have gotten totally left, rushed up, drew off, and people would have said he beat nobody. ;)


Second start: Away badly; rushed on a totally dead rail, won for fun.


Tom 02-22-2018 10:32 AM

If only they would run this one like Slew - hard, fast, and often.
Today's racing schedule pretty much prevents great horse from emerging, IMHO. That's why we get one at a time nowadays.

Hello world, losing a race now and then is not the end of the horse.

Vinnie 03-06-2018 04:39 PM

You can't say that Justify is not on some folks radar after posting such a razor sharp 104 Beyer (and 131 TFUS) figure on his debut on Feb. 18th at the Great Race Place. It is notable however that he hasn't accumulated any genuine "Derby points" at this stage in the game. I don't know if he can or will eventually become the Wiseguy horse as we are quickly approaching the Derby with the passing of each day, but, I would like to consider him to be the "Stupendous Yappi" (from X Files) fame under the radar type pick for Derby 2018.... :)


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