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-   -   Justify (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143394)

Spalding No! 02-19-2018 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2279092)
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:

Going to be an interesting dilemma for Baffert with respect to the Triple Crown.

He has been in this position or similar before and while he's been close a couple of times with them in the classics, he's never fully delivered. Furthermore, the effort usually comes with the cost of 6-12 months layup if not outright retirement.

2001 - Congaree, who made an early fall start at 2 before going to the sidelines, reappeared in a February maiden (off-the-turf mile) and romped. Took an allowance and the Wood Memorial in succession, gave a brave account in the Derby under a ridiculous pace, ho-hum in the Preakness, regrouped in the Swaps and then melted down at odds on in the Jim Dandy. Gone for several months afterwards and took over a year and a half to show anything like Grade 1 quality again.

2011 - Bodemeister takes a February route maiden in his second career start (debuted in January), then places in the San Felipe and romps in the Arkansas Derby. Couldn't stave off the streaking I'll Have Another in either the Derby or the Preakness then couldn't get out of gallop when aiming for the Haskell. Never ran again.

2014 - Bayern romps in a January 7f maiden, destroys an allowance route then sat out the month of March to await the Arkansas Derby where he flopped. Tossed into the Preakness after a disastrous Derby Trial, he folded like a cheap suit. The season went up and down like this the rest of the year, but was ultimately a success when eliminating both his pace rival (Moreno) and perhaps the best of horse in the race (Shared Belief) at the start of the BC Classic. The fact that he even carried on after the Preakness was a bit of surprise in the face of the demands placed on him early, but eventually the physical toll caught up with him and he was utterly useless as a 4yo.

2014 - Hoppertunity was blitzed by Bayern in his debut race, but romped right back in a route maiden. Was all over the place subsequently, running in major preps at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita. Not surprisingly, with such management, he was a Derby week casualty after shipping to Churchill Downs, supposedly with a foot issue (that apparently got better with ankle surgery). Gone for 6 months and has had a prolonged and modestly successful career ever since.

Non-Baffert trained late-comers have faired a bit better.

Curlin went to Churchill with a bullet after romping in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby and despite wilting in the Derby, he took down the Preakness and just missed in the Belmont. Surprisingly, never missed a beat after that.

Red Bullet went through 6f, 7f, and 8f races starting in January before tasting defeat in the Wood Memorial. Wisely held from the Derby, he spoiled Fusaichi Pegasus' pre-ordained Triple Crown run by winning the Preakness. Imploded at 3-5 in the Dwyer (though he edged Belmont winner Commendable for 3rd to keep out of last place) and didn't start again for over a year. Never anything like Grade 1 when he finally returned.

Pulpit was put through the ringer after a sensational January 7f maiden at Gulfstream, taking down an allowance and Fountain of Youth, placing in the Florida Derby, and regrouping with a win in the Blue Grass all ahead of the Derby. At Churchill he was a tired horse down the lane, only managing a distance 4th. Never ran again.

I would guess Justify will target the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, given Baffert's prior success there. McKinzie seems distance-challenged to me, Solamini is of suspect physical robustness (lugs in, doesn't change leads in all starts), and Mourinho has never really looked like a top prospect. That means Justify is probably Baffert's main hope for the Triple Crown which in turn means he probably won't get the patient handling of Arrogate or even West Coast.

horses4courses 02-19-2018 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279608)
Going to be an interesting dilemma for Baffert with respect to the Triple Crown.

He has been in this position or similar before and while he's been close a couple of times with them in the classics, he's never fully delivered. Furthermore, the effort usually comes with the cost of 6-12 months layup if not outright retirement.

2001 - Congaree, who made an early fall start at 2 before going to the sidelines, reappeared in a February maiden (off-the-turf mile) and romped. Took an allowance and the Wood Memorial in succession, gave a brave account in the Derby under a ridiculous pace, ho-hum in the Preakness, regrouped in the Swaps and then melted down at odds on in the Jim Dandy. Gone for several months afterwards and took over a year and a half to show anything like Grade 1 quality again.

2011 - Bodemeister takes a February route maiden in his second career start (debuted in January), then places in the San Felipe and romps in the Arkansas Derby. Couldn't stave off the streaking I'll Have Another in either the Derby or the Preakness then couldn't get out of gallop when aiming for the Haskell. Never ran again.

2014 - Bayern romps in a January 7f maiden, destroys an allowance route then sat out the month of March to await the Arkansas Derby where he flopped. Tossed into the Preakness after a disastrous Derby Trial, he folded like a cheap suit. The season went up and down like this the rest of the year, but was ultimately a success when eliminating both his pace rival (Moreno) and perhaps the best of horse in the race (Shared Belief) at the start of the BC Classic. The fact that he even carried on after the Preakness was a bit of surprise in the face of the demands placed on him early, but eventually the physical toll caught up with him and he was utterly useless as a 4yo.

2014 - Hoppertunity was blitzed by Bayern in his debut race, but romped right back in a route maiden. Was all over the place subsequently, running in major preps at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita. Not surprisingly, with such management, he was a Derby week casualty after shipping to Churchill Downs, supposedly with a foot issue (that apparently got better with ankle surgery). Gone for 6 months and has had a prolonged and modestly successful career ever since.

Non-Baffert trained late-comers have faired a bit better.

Curlin went to Churchill with a bullet after romping in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby and despite wilting in the Derby, he took down the Preakness and just missed in the Belmont. Surprisingly, never missed a beat after that.

Red Bullet went through 6f, 7f, and 8f races starting in January before tasting defeat in the Wood Memorial. Wisely held from the Derby, he spoiled Fusaichi Pegasus' pre-ordained Triple Crown run by winning the Preakness. Imploded at 3-5 in the Dwyer (though he edged Belmont winner Commendable for 3rd to keep out of last place) and didn't start again for over a year. Never anything like Grade 1 when he finally returned.

Pulpit was put through the ringer after a sensational January 7f maiden at Gulfstream, taking down an allowance and Fountain of Youth, placing in the Florida Derby, and regrouping with a win in the Blue Grass all ahead of the Derby. At Churchill he was a tired horse down the lane, only managing a distance 4th. Never ran again.

I would guess Justify will target the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, given Baffert's prior success there. McKinzie seems distance-challenged to me, Solamini is of suspect physical robustness (lugs in, doesn't change leads in all starts), and Mourinho has never really looked like a top prospect. That means Justify is probably Baffert's main hope for the Triple Crown which in turn means he probably won't get the patient handling of Arrogate or even West Coast.

What?

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.

menifee 02-20-2018 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses (Post 2279611)
What?

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.

I would take Baffert. If Baffert takes him to the Derby, he is basically trying to do what Curlin tried to do. Very tough to do. Winning the Derby in your 4th career start without a 2yo foundation is nearly impossible. That said, I still have not seen any world beaters yet in this division.

Spalding No! 02-20-2018 12:36 AM

A few more late comers:

2006 - Bernardini broke his maiden in March (after debuting in January), and went on a massive tear taking the Preakness in his 4th career start and streaking through the rest of the year before getting out-footed by Invasor in the BC. Retired by design if I recall correctly and didn't start at 4.

2009 - Summer Bird debuts in March and yet makes the Derby after winning a route maiden and placing in the Arkansas Derby. No count at Churchill, but took down the Belmont and later the Travers and JCGC before being derailed by a synthetic surface in the BC. Connections refused to slow down, targeting the Japan Cup only a couple weeks after the BC Classic. Broke a leg in Japan training for the race and never ran again.

2017 - Cloud Computing made a winning debut in a 6f sprint in February, placed in the key Aqueduct preps before just edging the 2yo champion in the Preakness. Showed little in his 2 summer outs and hasn't been seen since, though he finally returned to the work tab yesterday.

Robert Fischer 02-20-2018 12:55 AM

Mourhino (sp?) looked good to me today.

They made him work a couple of times in the mud.

I'd much rather see that, then see him control a slow pace and look like American Pharaoh. Now, you're gonna see bandwagoners jump off, and you may get 2-1 - 5/2 next time instead of 6/5 or whatever.

Jack is no Exaggerator, but Kent worked a dream trip.

Fair amount of value for a race that looked like a walkover on paper.

Spalding No! 02-20-2018 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses (Post 2279611)
What?

"What" ain't no country I've ever heard of...

They read English in What?

Quote:

The man has trained 4 KY Derby winners.....6 Preakness winners....
and 2 Belmont winners. :eek:

Sure, racing takes it toll on some of his horses.
Let me ask you this, though.
Who would you rather have train a TC prospect for you?
Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert?

Now, if your horse needs more time to mature, with a better
chance of success down the road, there might be other trainers.
If your horse has a future on turf - again, there might be other trainers.

To get you to Churchill Downs in May?
I'll take Baffert over anyone.
If we actually stick to the crux of my original post, which is focused on late-starting 3yos (and not horses trained by Bob Baffert), then from the historical evidence it seems pointless to even bother to get to Churchill Downs in May (never mind think that you have a shot to win).

It makes more sense to target the Preakness directly with such horses.

Spalding No! 02-20-2018 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2279622)
Mourhino (sp?) looked good to me today.

They made him work a couple of times in the mud.

I'd much rather see that, then see him control a slow pace and look like American Pharaoh. Now, you're gonna see bandwagoners jump off, and you may get 2-1 - 5/2 next time instead of 6/5 or whatever.

Jack is no Exaggerator, but Kent worked a dream trip.

Fair amount of value for a race that looked like a walkover on paper.

Appears to have a future as a stalking sprinter at best.

After an impressive debut he blew a 5-length lead into the stretch in a weak Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. In the Bob Hope at Del Mar, he had dead-aim on the brave Greyvitos, collared him at the head of the stretch and was turned back. In the Smarty Jones he controlled a slow pace and looked like American Pharoah in a race with a shortened stretch run. In the Southwest he drew off seemingly in hand to the top of the lane and was swallowed up by not one, but many rivals.

I'll wait for the Woody Stephens, Allen Jerkens, etc., but he still needs to show quite a bit more fight and fortitude to achieve Grade 1 status.

cj 02-20-2018 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasch (Post 2279594)
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

Thanks for that. I do similar. But in this case for me, the projected variants for the one race matched the rest of the card. Had I split the 6f and 7f races it would have been a point or two lower, but I decided not to do so.

Vinnie 02-20-2018 11:41 AM

Hopefully he can stay very sound.... OMG!! What an engine. Watch out for this BIG GUY come the first Saturday in May... What an effort... Holy Toledo Batman!!

Robert Fischer 02-20-2018 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
(Mourinho)Appears to have a future as a stalking sprinter at best.

While I have no interest or prediction in his future (if we were pals, I'd bet you a $1 for the sake of argument) other than betting him as an overlay, should he be entered next in a derby prep route, we do have radically different form interpretation here;

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
...he blew a 5-length lead into the stretch in a weak Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita.

CJ, -Care to share the TimeformUS pace figs for this one?

-Speakeasy S. was clearly a hot 3-way pace duel vs. sprinters, where he put them away impressively, only to be run down deep stretch by a perfectly setup closer, who happened to capitalize fairly well in his opportunity that day with a game late run.
raw 21.1 44.2, bris +8 +9


Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
In the Bob Hope at Del Mar, he had dead-aim on the brave Greyvitos, collared him at the head of the stretch and was turned back.

-Never at any point did he collar Greyvitos, although if he hadn't lost momentum on the turn while lugging in behind Greyvitos, it's possible that the top of the stretch would have had some action. Probably the fault of Mourhino(sp?), but the handling and right-hand whip certainly wasn't proactive. Greyvitos was 13-1, and controlled that pace. Bris had it -8 -8 for pace, so that may have helped Greyvitos control the pace and leave the 'good horses' too much to do, once they realized he wasn't folding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
In the Smarty Jones he controlled a slow pace and looked like American Pharoah in a race with a shortened stretch run.

We completely agree here. I feel like the previous races pointed to this. I feel like the workouts (most are available on xbtv.com for free) reinforced this.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
In the Southwest he drew off seemingly in hand to the top of the lane and was swallowed up by not one, but many rivals.

He had to use some horse early after breaking a step slow, and having the 5 break inwards. Then at the half, apparently Johnny V thought he had a good horse in the 5, or the 5 ran away from him, or he had intentions of dueling Mourhino. For whatever reason, the 5 moved prematurely to get a head in front of Mourhino.
Mourhino then used more horse, whether jockey DVD ****ed up, or whether it's a fault that Mourhino has where he tends to put away dueling rivals with premature moves.
The track was also a muddy sloppy mess.
Mourhino was supposed to cruise around the track in front at an even pace, not make 2 moves and tough-out a surface. Had he the opportunity to run 'his' race, I have no doubt he would have repeated the Smarty Jones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279627)
I'll wait for the Woody Stephens, Allen Jerkens, etc., but he still needs to show quite a bit more fight and fortitude to achieve Grade 1 status.

If he runs in those races, he'll be no more than a 'use' if I happen to be stringing multis. I also have no interest or expectation of him ever being a true Grade 1 horse, but I do expect him to win his next race, should he be entered in a derby prep at a route.

dasch 02-20-2018 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasch (Post 2279594)
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

To be a little more precise, the number I ended up with(and again will say am very confident in) was equivalent to a win in a Santa Anita 3&up Alw2x, a VERY nice race for a debuting 3yo just not freaky.

Spalding No! 02-20-2018 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2279702)
While I have no interest or prediction in his future (if we were pals, I'd bet you a $1 for the sake of argument) other than betting him as an overlay, should he be entered next in a derby prep route, we do have radically different form interpretation here;

If he runs in those races, he'll be no more than a 'use' if I happen to be stringing multis. I also have no interest or expectation of him ever being a true Grade 1 horse, but I do expect him to win his next race, should he be entered in a derby prep at a route.

Your point is taken with regards to the muddy track, where perhaps all bets are off in terms of outcome. However, I believe the track was sealed, and in general, that should favor frontrunners.

Also, point taken with regards to him running a better race next out. I was commenting on his long term prospects. Certainly if he shows up for a race like the Sunland Park Derby, he might give them all they can handle.

That aside, it seems like you are saying that his "normal" race should be for him to walk on the lead with no pressure and then we will see the "real" Mourinho. Any sort of pace pressure or challenges should not be the norm. That might be the reality in 6-horse fields in SoCal but those are not true races. Any speed horse will look otherworldly under those conditions.

If Mourinho can't handle dueling with horses that can't win allowance races subsequently or filly Cal-bred claimers (see the field for the Speakeasy) then when its all said and done, he simply isn't much horse.

jocko699 02-20-2018 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2279619)
A few more late comers:

2006 - Bernardini broke his maiden in March (after debuting in January), and went on a massive tear taking the Preakness in his 4th career start and streaking through the rest of the year before getting out-footed by Invasor in the BC. Retired by design if I recall correctly and didn't start at 4.

2009 - Summer Bird debuts in March and yet makes the Derby after winning a route maiden and placing in the Arkansas Derby. No count at Churchill, but took down the Belmont and later the Travers and JCGC before being derailed by a synthetic surface in the BC. Connections refused to slow down, targeting the Japan Cup only a couple weeks after the BC Classic. Broke a leg in Japan training for the race and never ran again.

2017 - Cloud Computing made a winning debut in a 6f sprint in February, placed in the key Aqueduct preps before just edging the 2yo champion in the Preakness. Showed little in his 2 summer outs and hasn't been seen since, though he finally returned to the work tab yesterday.

Thank you for reminding me of this race:rant::rant::rant:

cj 02-20-2018 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer (Post 2279702)


CJ, -Care to share the TimeformUS pace figs for this one?

-Speakeasy S. was clearly a hot 3-way pace duel vs. sprinters, where he put them away impressively, only to be run down deep stretch by a perfectly setup closer, who happened to capitalize fairly well in his opportunity that day with a game late run.
raw 21.1 44.2, bris +8 +9



104 that day after a 108 debut. He won the pace duel but lost the war, but he was on the outside of that three horse duel and it wasn't a very long duel as he cleared before the turn if memory serves.

ultracapper 02-20-2018 09:44 PM

Wow! That was pretty impressive. We'll know more what Baffert thinks if he moves away from DVD and on to VEspinoza or MSmith.


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