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-   -   Ax Man (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142577)

jocko699 01-01-2018 08:05 PM

Ax Man
 
Baffert firster looked awesome today winning by 9.5 lengths. I watched his workout on December 27th when he worked with McKinzie. He would side by side but the gallop out by McKinzie was impressive.

Spalding No! 01-02-2018 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocko699 (Post 2256291)
Baffert firster looked awesome today winning by 9.5 lengths. I watched his workout on December 27th when he worked with McKinzie. He would side by side but the gallop out by McKinzie was impressive.

Kind of an odd maiden race with the disparate restrictions.

At its extreme, such a race could prove lopsided when 7-figure caliber bluebloods run against horses priced at less than $100K.

Sure enough, the homebred 1/2 brother to a champion and BC winner romped home easily. Practically a training race or well orchestrated public workout.

Fager Fan 01-02-2018 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2256365)
Kind of an odd maiden race with the disparate restrictions.

At its extreme, such a race could prove lopsided when 7-figure caliber bluebloods run against horses priced at less than $100K.

Sure enough, the homebred 1/2 brother to a champion and BC winner romped home easily. Practically a training race or well orchestrated public workout.

Who is its half-brother?

Spalding No! 01-02-2018 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256377)
Who is its half-brother?

Ax Man is a half to Indian Blessing (2 Eclipses, 1 BC race, nearly $3 million) among other talented if fragile Baffert-trained runners.

cj 01-02-2018 11:22 AM

Only fitting that Baffert would win the first race that was supposed to help the little guys.

ultracapper 01-02-2018 11:36 AM

At least it wasn't Pegram or Kaleem Shah. I'm sure Earnhardt ain't a "little guy" to the rest of us, but he's at best number 4 or 5 in the Baffert barn.

Still a pretty good neighborhood.

outofthebox 01-02-2018 01:15 PM

See that Baffert has now picked up some Godolphin runners. 3yo filly Enboldened making her debut thursday 2nd race. Never going to stop for Baffert. As for Axman, that was some debut....

Spalding No! 01-02-2018 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2256412)
Only fitting that Baffert would win the first race that was supposed to help the little guys.

Retooling the 3yo maiden ranks to produce more lopsided victories is consistent with the illogical graded stakes schedule at Santa Anita that often showcases but a single prospect (not even an established horse) in a 4 or 5 horse field.

Last year at this meet it was so ludicrous that the maiden special weights proved stronger than the graded stakes, as evidenced by Irap, who could place in multiple graded stakes, but failed to hit the board in his maiden special weight starts.

Next weekends Sham Stakes promises to be more of the same.

GMB@BP 01-02-2018 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2256412)
Only fitting that Baffert would win the first race that was supposed to help the little guys.

holy cow thats funny...and quite intentional I would imagine

cj 01-02-2018 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2256565)
holy cow thats funny...and quite intentional I would imagine

I was wondering the same thing.

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 07:04 PM

Bob tends to hold these cards close...there was no indication other than a $2500 stallion fee and really good works to go off of here...Usually, there is more of a higher price sire or high sale price associated with these talented firsters.

Since I didn't see those, I sided with Shanghai Billy who looked really good on the track, and under performed in my opinion (I boxed the 2 horses in vertical exotics)...sometimes I think that this is what barns tend to do...they know that they are not going to run down Ax Man today, so they get a fast work in, throw the placing, and hide form for next time...you have to really get into the barns to know what's hiding there...not easy to do.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...t-sa-on-1-1-18

cj 01-02-2018 07:11 PM

It was impressive in any case. I gave him a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure, Beyer looks to be 97 or 98.

Fager Fan 01-02-2018 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2256407)
Ax Man is a half to Indian Blessing (2 Eclipses, 1 BC race, nearly $3 million) among other talented if fragile Baffert-trained runners.

That's shocking. How does Baffert get these owners of good mares to go to stallions he has an interest in? No way would I send a mare of that caliber to a $2,500 California stallion.

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2256585)
It was impressive in any case. I gave him a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure, Beyer looks to be 97 or 98.

Reminded me a little of Arrogate's break out race...Horse has interesting connections too... Owners, Patti and Hal Earnhardt III.

http://www.losalamitos.com/ProfilePage.aspx?ID=159

http://www.hillndalefarms.com/misremembered

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p...&pedloggedin=0

Derby Prospect...?

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 08:05 PM

Misremembered is listed as a Sire at Hill 'n Dale in Kentucky...

http://www.hillndalefarms.com/misrem...ormation.shtml

Regarding Race 6, Jan 1 SA: (This Race is Restricted to Homebreds and Horses Sold at Public Auction for $100,000 or Less).

Dam Shameful must be a California based Broodmare...How does one research the progeny records of Broodmares and where they are currently standing...?

Delta Cone 01-02-2018 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256580)
Bob tends to hold these cards close...there was no indication other than a $2500 stallion fee and really good works to go off of here...Usually, there is more of a higher price sire or high sale price associated with these talented firsters.

Before the race the dam had 7 foals to make it to the races, three of which had won their career debuts. In fact, she won her career debut too.

Donít think there were many cards being held close at all...in fact, it was fairly obvious the horse would be ready to run.

affirmedny 01-02-2018 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256621)
Misremembered is listed as a Sire at Hill 'n Dale in Kentucky...

http://www.hillndalefarms.com/misrem...ormation.shtml

Regarding Race 6, Jan 1 SA: (This Race is Restricted to Homebreds and Horses Sold at Public Auction for $100,000 or Less).

Dam Shameful must be a California based Broodmare...How does one research the progeny records of Broodmares and where they are currently standing...?


http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/shameful

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 08:30 PM

You are right, it is just that the $2500 sire price threw me a little off balance...i should have done some research on this one and 1.4 to one seemed a little short, so I boxed her with Shanghai Billy who really disappointed....seems now like a gift price but there have been many other Baffert firsters that dissappointed as well...this one just might have a real bright future..let's hope so:)

Fager Fan 01-02-2018 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256621)
Misremembered is listed as a Sire at Hill 'n Dale in Kentucky...

http://www.hillndalefarms.com/misrem...ormation.shtml

Regarding Race 6, Jan 1 SA: (This Race is Restricted to Homebreds and Horses Sold at Public Auction for $100,000 or Less).

Dam Shameful must be a California based Broodmare...How does one research the progeny records of Broodmares and where they are currently standing...?

That's an old page. He's no longer on their list of stallions. The current bh roster shows him standing in CA for $2,500. It was a "favor" of friend Hill 'n' Dale to stand him originally since they wouldn't normally be interested in standing a $3,500 stallion.

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 10:12 PM


Spalding No! 01-02-2018 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256593)
That's shocking. How does Baffert get these owners of good mares to go to stallions he has an interest in? No way would I send a mare of that caliber to a $2,500 California stallion.

There is some sort of Baffert-Sikura-Earnhardt link that compels or entices (free seasons) the latter to support Hill N Dale studs with their best broodmare(s).

Shameful was bred to Indian Charlie to produce Indian Blessing when he was fairly low on the totem pole as a stud (probably stood for no more than $15K at the time). That was a no-brainer though, as the Earnhardts also bred and raced Indian Charlie. Since then, Shameful has been bred to other Baffert-associated horses like Midnight Lute, Roman Ruler, and Misremembered (all Hill N Dale studs). Candy Ride (Hill N Dale) and Empire Maker are the only top rated sires she's been bred to.

Indian Blessing herself was more of the same when she was retired. She was bred to first-time sire Zensational (who also went to Hill N Dale) as a maiden mare.

Shameful seems to produce precocious offspring regardless of covering sire and the Earnhardts appear to breed to race, so if they are not looking to sell the foals avoiding 6-figure stallions is somewhat sensible.

VigorsTheGrey 01-02-2018 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256593)
That's shocking. How does Baffert get these owners of good mares to go to stallions he has an interest in? No way would I send a mare of that caliber to a $2,500 California stallion.

Maybe crosses of Candy Ride and his sons with Carson City and his sons and grandsons is the reason...=A++ Pedigree...?

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256678)
Maybe crosses of Candy Ride and his sons with Carson City and his sons and grandsons is the reason...=A++ Pedigree...?

Then I'd go to Candy Ride.

Over the years I've seen these top mares owned by Baffert's clients going to questionable and/or unproven stallions that Baffert has an interest in and it totally baffles me how he convinces them to do so. A free season isn't worth it. He'd have to offer free training on 3 horses for a year for me to consider it.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 10:05 AM

Spaulding, I understand what you say about avoiding the high two-figure or three figure stud fee, but that's still a bad plan (provided you can afford the high stud fee of course).

Let's say this horse wins another and is a hot Derby prospect. Or wins a G1 or the Derby and becomes a stallion prospect. That male side of the pedigree will value him at half what they'd get if he was by a top sire, and now we're talking millions of difference in value. Even if you breed to race, you've got to (to the best of your financial situation) set your horse up to be as commercially viable as possible as a breeding prospect.

Frost king 01-03-2018 10:21 AM

All you have to look at is California Chrome. He is basically bred to be a Cal-rat. Even though he proved on the track to be otherwise, he is still treated in the industry as one.

GMB@BP 01-03-2018 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256593)
That's shocking. How does Baffert get these owners of good mares to go to stallions he has an interest in? No way would I send a mare of that caliber to a $2,500 California stallion.

I think there is some points lost here.

The Earnhardts are from Arizona and have been long long time clients of Baffert, they own like 30 car dealerships here in the state. They have had a ton of success with Baffert.

I also believe that Misremembered was one of their horses as well, or they had a interest in him, so it was one of their mares going to a stallion they benifit to have some success with.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2256743)
I think there is some points lost here.

The Earnhardts are from Arizona and have been long long time clients of Baffert, they own like 30 car dealerships here in the state. They have had a ton of success with Baffert.

I also believe that Misremembered was one of their horses as well, or they had a interest in him, so it was one of their mares going to a stallion they benifit to have some success with.

He raced for Baffert's wife and George Jacobs.

As for the other, it's not disloyal to your trainer to breed a mare as it should be bred rather than send it to a cheap and non-commercial stallion owned by the trainer's wife.

VigorsTheGrey 01-03-2018 01:24 PM

Compared with Kentucky, California's breeding program / stallions is not very good....California really needs a Tapit or some other star to headline the roster. It has to start somewhere, hopefully with a California bred stallion...anything Bob and his connections can do in this regard is very welcome...Ax Man wasn't a foal to Candy Ride but to one of his sons, Misremembered.

If Misremembered stays in California as a Stallion, that's a good thing...the discussion of who Ax Man's Dam ought to have been breed to is really a moot point now...and the actual results/ outcome might just be a real good thing...besides there is nothing terribly wrong with a guy following the path of his own interests and the interests of his connections as well....just another opportunity among many...I wish Bob the best regardless....he's done a lot for the sport.

GMB@BP 01-03-2018 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256766)
He raced for Baffert's wife and George Jacobs.

As for the other, it's not disloyal to your trainer to breed a mare as it should be bred rather than send it to a cheap and non-commercial stallion owned by the trainer's wife.

You have no idea of the deals and arrangements that may have been made in regards to anything regarding this deal.

The bottom line is it seems to have been a great stallion selection. The rest is just message board fodder.

Spalding No! 01-03-2018 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256726)
Spaulding, I understand what you say about avoiding the high two-figure or three figure stud fee, but that's still a bad plan (provided you can afford the high stud fee of course).

Let's say this horse wins another and is a hot Derby prospect. Or wins a G1 or the Derby and becomes a stallion prospect. That male side of the pedigree will value him at half what they'd get if he was by a top sire, and now we're talking millions of difference in value. Even if you breed to race, you've got to (to the best of your financial situation) set your horse up to be as commercially viable as possible as a breeding prospect.

Sure, but my guess is that the Earnhardts are not interested in a lot of upfront investment especially given their success has essentially been achieved with modestly-bred horses from the getgo.

As far as stallion prospects, they must have made out pretty well on Indian Charlie, with whom I believe they were able to secure a stud deal prior to his Kentucky Derby race (which proved to be his last start). That horse had the pedigree of a Cal-bred. So it's believable from their perspective that if a horse shows enough talent, the stud deal will materialize regardless of bloodlines.

The Earnhardts actually bred Indian Blessing to a top stallion in Tapit and got a colt, Ten Blessings, that displayed Grade 1 ability (placed in the Malibu), but has been too injury plagued to be a certifiable stallion prospect in KY--at least for now as he is still in training. They also bred Shameful to Empire Maker and got Maker Or Breaker, who had to go to AZ to get black type, then died before she could produce a foal. So up to this point, their experience has not been great when ponying up for the higher stud fees.

Nevertheless, if they wanted a quick return on investment, the easiest thing to do would to breed Shameful (an aging mare) to Tapit or whoever and sell the foal. That's why I presume they are more interested in racing and hoping lightning strikes twice (or 3 times if you count the filly).

Spalding No! 01-03-2018 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256770)
C...the discussion of who Ax Man's Dam ought to have been breed to is really a moot point now...and the actual results/ outcome might just be a real good thing...

This was the original point I was trying to make: that the results of this race are a bit dressed up because Ax Man essentially ran in a lopsided race practically tailored for him.

Basically ran against MCL75K - MCL40K types without being risked for a tag. The speed figures might temper some of the skepticism, but nevertheless this colt most likely did not run in a race of any real quality.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2256784)
You have no idea of the deals and arrangements that may have been made in regards to anything regarding this deal.

The bottom line is it seems to have been a great stallion selection. The rest is just message board fodder.

Of course it's just message board fodder. This is a message board. But I do know what season deals usually entail, and there's no reasonable deal which would've made sense to me to choose this stallion.

As I said before, I find it weird, odd, intriguing, whatever the term may be that Baffert can get so many of his clients to breed top mares to stallions he has an interest in. He already has the benefit of getting Hill 'n' Dale to stand horses they'd not take for anyone else. It's interesting to watch.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2256947)
This was the original point I was trying to make: that the results of this race are a bit dressed up because Ax Man essentially ran in a lopsided race practically tailored for him.

Basically ran against MCL75K - MCL40K types without being risked for a tag. The speed figures might temper some of the skepticism, but nevertheless this colt most likely did not run in a race of any real quality.

I've been in favor of writing conditions similar to this, but for claiming horses so they don't have to run for a tag. The problem with this one as you note is that a homebred can be anything from homely to royal. I'd also have to point out that purchase price can likewise not be a reliable indicator of the horsepower you've got.

Spalding No! 01-04-2018 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256961)
I've been in favor of writing conditions similar to this, but for claiming horses so they don't have to run for a tag. The problem with this one as you note is that a homebred can be anything from homely to royal. I'd also have to point out that purchase price can likewise not be a reliable indicator of the horsepower you've got.

As far as purchase price goes, no contingencies were made for the age of the horse at the time of auction, either. In general, I would presume that a $100K weanling > $100K yearling > $100K 2yo-in-training in terms of expectations.

Not sure what the main impetus was to create these races, but they will not work if the goal is to restrict big barns from running talented horses in them--since when are homebreds considered blue collar? Simpler solutions would have been to: (1) increase the purse of maiden claimers to those of special weights and/or (2) create second-tier special weights with the purse of a maiden claimer.

Spendthrift is not going to risk a homebred half to Beholder in a claimer and probably won't want to run him for a purse of <$30K, either. However, the connections of a $50K 2yo-in-training might recoup some of their expenses despite the risk of a claim if there was a decent purse attached to it or could choose to "protect" their horse while not having to tackle any potential monsters if they thought he might be an overachiever.

Despite all that, it's really a non-existent problem. Seattle Slew, Sea Cadet, Silver Ending, Exaggerator, etc. were modestly priced colts and I don't remember them having to shy away from maiden special weights or have fake races written so they could get a win.

VigorsTheGrey 01-04-2018 01:48 PM

Why don't they just create race conditions for all sorts of claiming level horses that no longer are claiming races at all...I mean, if you like your horse and want to keep it why risk running it where it could be taken from you...? It just makes no sense, unless its a dog and you just want to get rid of it...so still have those races also...

Maiden
Claiming
Non-Claiming
Allowance
Stakes
Etc...

ultracapper 01-05-2018 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2257165)
Why don't they just create race conditions for all sorts of claiming level horses that no longer are claiming races at all...I mean, if you like your horse and want to keep it why risk running it where it could be taken from you...? It just makes no sense, unless its a dog and you just want to get rid of it...so still have those races also...

Maiden
Claiming
Non-Claiming
Allowance
Stakes
Etc...

Starter Allowances. Some of the longest winning streaks in the history of the breed have been accomplished because of this category of non-claiming, claiming level condition.

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2257406)
Starter Allowances. Some of the longest winning streaks in the history of the breed have been accomplished because of this category of non-claiming, claiming level condition.

Santa Anita has exactly ZERO Starter Allowances carded for the next thru tomorrow to the 15th of Jan per the condition books, although they had a few the first week through Jan1.

Maybe they should start carding more of these races in the future,
is the demand there from trainers...?

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 02:48 AM

Nice write-up re Ax Man, Baffert
 

Fager Fan 01-05-2018 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2257159)
As far as purchase price goes, no contingencies were made for the age of the horse at the time of auction, either. In general, I would presume that a $100K weanling > $100K yearling > $100K 2yo-in-training in terms of expectations.

Not sure what the main impetus was to create these races, but they will not work if the goal is to restrict big barns from running talented horses in them--since when are homebreds considered blue collar? Simpler solutions would have been to: (1) increase the purse of maiden claimers to those of special weights and/or (2) create second-tier special weights with the purse of a maiden claimer.

Spendthrift is not going to risk a homebred half to Beholder in a claimer and probably won't want to run him for a purse of <$30K, either. However, the connections of a $50K 2yo-in-training might recoup some of their expenses despite the risk of a claim if there was a decent purse attached to it or could choose to "protect" their horse while not having to tackle any potential monsters if they thought he might be an overachiever.

Despite all that, it's really a non-existent problem. Seattle Slew, Sea Cadet, Silver Ending, Exaggerator, etc. were modestly priced colts and I don't remember them having to shy away from maiden special weights or have fake races written so they could get a win.

Good point and absolutely true about the price being nice for a weanling can be mediocre for a yearling or 2yo in training. In addition, prices can be severely impacted by vet issues that an astute vet and buyer could see won't be a problem for the horse later on.

When I read about this set of new conditions being carded, I thought it was interesting while also wondering how it came about. I wouldn't think maidens are the ones who need some kind of protection or encouragement to get larger fields.

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 11:00 AM

It is odd that the 6th race on Jan 1st conditions are not the conditions shown in the book nor one of the substitute races. It just appears on the overnights, weird.


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