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-   -   Ax Man (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142577)

Spalding No! 01-03-2018 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2256770)
C...the discussion of who Ax Man's Dam ought to have been breed to is really a moot point now...and the actual results/ outcome might just be a real good thing...

This was the original point I was trying to make: that the results of this race are a bit dressed up because Ax Man essentially ran in a lopsided race practically tailored for him.

Basically ran against MCL75K - MCL40K types without being risked for a tag. The speed figures might temper some of the skepticism, but nevertheless this colt most likely did not run in a race of any real quality.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2256784)
You have no idea of the deals and arrangements that may have been made in regards to anything regarding this deal.

The bottom line is it seems to have been a great stallion selection. The rest is just message board fodder.

Of course it's just message board fodder. This is a message board. But I do know what season deals usually entail, and there's no reasonable deal which would've made sense to me to choose this stallion.

As I said before, I find it weird, odd, intriguing, whatever the term may be that Baffert can get so many of his clients to breed top mares to stallions he has an interest in. He already has the benefit of getting Hill 'n' Dale to stand horses they'd not take for anyone else. It's interesting to watch.

Fager Fan 01-03-2018 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2256947)
This was the original point I was trying to make: that the results of this race are a bit dressed up because Ax Man essentially ran in a lopsided race practically tailored for him.

Basically ran against MCL75K - MCL40K types without being risked for a tag. The speed figures might temper some of the skepticism, but nevertheless this colt most likely did not run in a race of any real quality.

I've been in favor of writing conditions similar to this, but for claiming horses so they don't have to run for a tag. The problem with this one as you note is that a homebred can be anything from homely to royal. I'd also have to point out that purchase price can likewise not be a reliable indicator of the horsepower you've got.

Spalding No! 01-04-2018 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fager Fan (Post 2256961)
I've been in favor of writing conditions similar to this, but for claiming horses so they don't have to run for a tag. The problem with this one as you note is that a homebred can be anything from homely to royal. I'd also have to point out that purchase price can likewise not be a reliable indicator of the horsepower you've got.

As far as purchase price goes, no contingencies were made for the age of the horse at the time of auction, either. In general, I would presume that a $100K weanling > $100K yearling > $100K 2yo-in-training in terms of expectations.

Not sure what the main impetus was to create these races, but they will not work if the goal is to restrict big barns from running talented horses in them--since when are homebreds considered blue collar? Simpler solutions would have been to: (1) increase the purse of maiden claimers to those of special weights and/or (2) create second-tier special weights with the purse of a maiden claimer.

Spendthrift is not going to risk a homebred half to Beholder in a claimer and probably won't want to run him for a purse of <$30K, either. However, the connections of a $50K 2yo-in-training might recoup some of their expenses despite the risk of a claim if there was a decent purse attached to it or could choose to "protect" their horse while not having to tackle any potential monsters if they thought he might be an overachiever.

Despite all that, it's really a non-existent problem. Seattle Slew, Sea Cadet, Silver Ending, Exaggerator, etc. were modestly priced colts and I don't remember them having to shy away from maiden special weights or have fake races written so they could get a win.

VigorsTheGrey 01-04-2018 12:48 PM

Why don't they just create race conditions for all sorts of claiming level horses that no longer are claiming races at all...I mean, if you like your horse and want to keep it why risk running it where it could be taken from you...? It just makes no sense, unless its a dog and you just want to get rid of it...so still have those races also...

Maiden
Claiming
Non-Claiming
Allowance
Stakes
Etc...

ultracapper 01-04-2018 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2257165)
Why don't they just create race conditions for all sorts of claiming level horses that no longer are claiming races at all...I mean, if you like your horse and want to keep it why risk running it where it could be taken from you...? It just makes no sense, unless its a dog and you just want to get rid of it...so still have those races also...

Maiden
Claiming
Non-Claiming
Allowance
Stakes
Etc...

Starter Allowances. Some of the longest winning streaks in the history of the breed have been accomplished because of this category of non-claiming, claiming level condition.

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2257406)
Starter Allowances. Some of the longest winning streaks in the history of the breed have been accomplished because of this category of non-claiming, claiming level condition.

Santa Anita has exactly ZERO Starter Allowances carded for the next thru tomorrow to the 15th of Jan per the condition books, although they had a few the first week through Jan1.

Maybe they should start carding more of these races in the future,
is the demand there from trainers...?

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 01:48 AM

Nice write-up re Ax Man, Baffert
 

Fager Fan 01-05-2018 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2257159)
As far as purchase price goes, no contingencies were made for the age of the horse at the time of auction, either. In general, I would presume that a $100K weanling > $100K yearling > $100K 2yo-in-training in terms of expectations.

Not sure what the main impetus was to create these races, but they will not work if the goal is to restrict big barns from running talented horses in them--since when are homebreds considered blue collar? Simpler solutions would have been to: (1) increase the purse of maiden claimers to those of special weights and/or (2) create second-tier special weights with the purse of a maiden claimer.

Spendthrift is not going to risk a homebred half to Beholder in a claimer and probably won't want to run him for a purse of <$30K, either. However, the connections of a $50K 2yo-in-training might recoup some of their expenses despite the risk of a claim if there was a decent purse attached to it or could choose to "protect" their horse while not having to tackle any potential monsters if they thought he might be an overachiever.

Despite all that, it's really a non-existent problem. Seattle Slew, Sea Cadet, Silver Ending, Exaggerator, etc. were modestly priced colts and I don't remember them having to shy away from maiden special weights or have fake races written so they could get a win.

Good point and absolutely true about the price being nice for a weanling can be mediocre for a yearling or 2yo in training. In addition, prices can be severely impacted by vet issues that an astute vet and buyer could see won't be a problem for the horse later on.

When I read about this set of new conditions being carded, I thought it was interesting while also wondering how it came about. I wouldn't think maidens are the ones who need some kind of protection or encouragement to get larger fields.

VigorsTheGrey 01-05-2018 10:00 AM

It is odd that the 6th race on Jan 1st conditions are not the conditions shown in the book nor one of the substitute races. It just appears on the overnights, weird.

onefast99 01-05-2018 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2257461)
It is odd that the 6th race on Jan 1st conditions are not the conditions shown in the book nor one of the substitute races. It just appears on the overnights, weird.

I have seen this before at tracks where several trainers are asking for a particular condition and based on demand the race is "adjusted" condition wise.

ultracapper 01-05-2018 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2257412)
Santa Anita has exactly ZERO Starter Allowances carded for the next thru tomorrow to the 15th of Jan per the condition books, although they had a few the first week through Jan1.

Maybe they should start carding more of these races in the future,
is the demand there from trainers...?

It's true that you seem to see a lot more of them at the smaller handle tracks. They basically just run N2L's for higher priced claimers at both SA and DelMar. However, LosAl will write races for lower level clamers, with more open conditions. I don't watch the mid-Atlantic tracks much, but I've noticed tracks like Penn seem to have more of them.

Edit: On Super Bowl Sunday, Santa Anita will run a small stake race called the Super Bowl Handicap, or something to that effect. They've been running it for years. If I'm not mistaken, it's basically a $25K starter allowance of sorts.

cj 01-05-2018 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2257485)
It's true that you seem to see a lot more of them at the smaller handle tracks. They basically just run N2L's for higher priced claimers at both SA and DelMar. However, LosAl will write races for lower level clamers, with more open conditions. I don't watch the mid-Atlantic tracks much, but I've noticed tracks like Penn seem to have more of them.

Usually the ones in the east are different. The aren't NW2, they are for horses that have started for a designated price (or lower) in a certain timeframe, usually the last year or two. There used to be a lot more of these and trainers would often try to slip a horse through a race to get it eligible for starter races. I'm sure it still goes on, but they used to be much more prevalent.

Rapid Redux's 22 race winning streak contained 18 of these races. It started in a race where he was in for an 8k tag, and he had run for cheaper tags before that.

onefast99 01-05-2018 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2257487)
Usually the ones in the east are different. The aren't NW2, they are for horses that have started for a designated price (or lower) in a certain timeframe, usually the last year or two. There used to be a lot more of these and trainers would often try to slip a horse through a race to get it eligible for starter races. I'm sure it still goes on, but they used to be much more prevalent.

Rapid Redux's 22 race winning streak contained 18 of these races. It started in a race where he was in for an 8k tag, and he had run for cheaper tags before that.

Should have been 24 in a row he got dq'd at Penn....

ultracapper 01-05-2018 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2257487)
Usually the ones in the east are different. The aren't NW2, they are for horses that have started for a designated price (or lower) in a certain timeframe, usually the last year or two. There used to be a lot more of these and trainers would often try to slip a horse through a race to get it eligible for starter races. I'm sure it still goes on, but they used to be much more prevalent.

Rapid Redux's 22 race winning streak contained 18 of these races. It started in a race where he was in for an 8k tag, and he had run for cheaper tags before that.

Exactly. I wasn't sure if it was a big track/small track thing. Your comment implies an east coast/west coast thing.

They changed the conditions of the StAl$40KN2L a couple years ago in SoCal. They were always for horses that had broken maiden for $40K or less and never won 2 races. They made the change a couple years ago to horses that had started for $40K or less and never won 2 races. HUGE difference. Before the MSW winners could never get into these races. They had to go to the Cl$25Kn2l if they couldn't cut it in the Alwn2l. Now if a MSW winner can't cut it in Alwn2l, they sneak them into a $40K claimer, then wheel them into the StAl races. The Cl$25Kn2l used to be a better race, with all those MSW winners, than the StAl$40Kn2l with all those MCl$20K winners in them. It was hidden class that many handicappers didn't really pick up on. They believed that the Alw race was stronger than the Cl by definition, and usually handicapped those Cln2ls all wrong. It was a great advantage understanding conditions, a must in handicapping horse races.


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