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-   -   Is This a good Longshot? (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=141010)

jay68802 09-27-2017 01:57 PM

Is This a good Longshot?
 
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

TheOracle 09-27-2017 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.


Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...flessmlbel.jpg

Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know

AndyC 09-27-2017 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.

jay68802 09-27-2017 02:43 PM

Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey

Whosonfirst 09-27-2017 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.

Nutz and Boltz 09-27-2017 03:12 PM

I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.

jay68802 09-27-2017 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst (Post 2225214)
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.

Funny you mention the :6: in that race, i have him as my second horse.

Nutz and Boltz 09-27-2017 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2225204)
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey


That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.

jay68802 09-27-2017 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz (Post 2225258)
That 6th race back was over 2 years ago.

You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.

jay68802 09-27-2017 08:18 PM

Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.

n.c 09-27-2017 09:22 PM

reason i would have avoided the 4 is
 
the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd:D

Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.

jay68802 09-28-2017 01:15 AM

Is This A Good Longshot?
 
Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

:1: Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.

thaskalos 09-28-2017 01:43 AM

A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.

VigorsTheGrey 09-28-2017 01:56 AM

Did you guys notice Fairy Link in the 4th today?
Krist nailed him with a 15-1 ML...! Good Guy...
http://www.kristpicks.com/

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Joe has been hot lately too...Same agent as Jose who is out with sore knee...Look for Joe to boot more sleepers in soon....

TheOracle 09-28-2017 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2225198)
Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...flessmlbel.jpg

Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know

J C Englehart really disappointed me in that race

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...disapntbel.jpg

Of course I didn't have Isotope in the 3rd


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