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woodbinepmi 09-02-2017 02:00 PM

2017-2018 HONG KONG
 
Hong Kong for September 3rd at Sha Tin. Inaugural race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees,cloudy with squally showers and thunder-storms.Wind: West 10 mph.
Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170903_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
https://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=1&meeting=101421

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 :8: Yourthewonforme (5-2) Comes out of a slow race and is still winless after 32 races in Hong Kong.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

Horses that have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :4:Seasons Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 :5:Fairy Twins (3-1)
Race 8 :2:Hang’s Decision( 6-1) and:6:Solar Hei Hei( 7-1)
Race 10 :11: Rattan( 10-1)



Last race watch list horse:
Race 9 :6: Fifty Fifty (3-1) Drew the outside post in his initial race in Hong Kong, was rushed up into contention soon after the break. Was forced three wide in the turn uncovered, switched leads smoothly as soon as he straightened up in the stretch, dug down but was outrun by a neck versus a Size/Moreira odds on favourite winner. Now draws the two hole.


Key Play:
Race 3 :2: Magic Legend (3-1) Threw his head up at the start forcing him to a little farther back than he likes, became rank on the backside soon afterwards. On the turn while racing three wide became unbalanced when a rival in front of him was forced to check up. Was eventually outclassed by Thewizordofoz in the stretch. May catch the high weight favourite Blizzard in here using this as a prep for a graded race down the road.

Longshots:
Race 5 :11: Telecom Boom (9-1)
Race 7 :10:Sunny Dragon ( 11-1)
Race 10 :10: Club Life( 31-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases and general observations on the day.

cj 09-03-2017 12:29 PM

Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

GMB@BP 09-03-2017 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2215655)
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

When Kent was young in socal, 91-93 it was the same way, seemed like he would take speed and make them closers and the pace collapsed, closers on the lead with no pace and they would win. It was pretty amazing.

woodbinepmi 09-04-2017 02:36 AM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

steveb 09-04-2017 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi (Post 2216117)
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 3rd
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Favoured closers
Notes on the day:
Nothing out of the ordinary with Moreira winning the first 5 races, variant came back 4.3 slow for the day (on the races run with a turn in them) with the 2nd and 3rd races creating a little difficulty in making a figure for them.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 001 Multigogo – Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 002 Best Tango – Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 009 Travel Emperor – Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 010 Gorgeous King – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 007 Hair Trigger – Beat a very weak Class 3 field in a very slow time while having a bias aided track.

Speed Figures:
1st (001): 101
2nd (002): -92#
3rd (003): 111#
4th (004): -95
5th (005): 92
6th (006): +95
7th (007): 95
8th (008): 104
9th (009); -101
10th (010): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.4
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6


Pars:
Graded Stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

would you care to enlarge on the what and the how for the bit i have bolded?

your par (classes/speeds??) are relatively close to mine it appears.
i have more than one figure depending on the group for the stakes races
-----------ME DIFF
Class 1 107 93.5 13.5
Class 2 104 91 13
Class 3 100 86 14
Class 4 96 81 15
Class 5 92 77.5 14.5

the class 1 and 2 races tend to officially be scaled down more than the 3/4/5 which is probably why i underate them compared to you.

i reckon the track was 4 fast though!

all hypothetical for me as i don't study them these days, but i reckon race 1 and 3 are deservedly much faster than expected for that grade.
and i would not have adjusted any of the speeds for this meet.


betovernetcapper 09-04-2017 11:01 PM

Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)

biggestal99 09-05-2017 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2215655)
Moreira is a problem in Hong Kong right now. He is just too good for the other guys. Reminds of when Kent and Prado and even Raul were young riders in Maryland. Handicapping went out the window.

Chris McCarron too...prolly too young to remember him riding Md.

Allan

Nitro 09-05-2017 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper (Post 2216508)
Thanks Woodpinepmi for your very thoughtful analyses of this card. The most we usually hear is something profound like "lot of money on the :3:
Refreshing change to look at it critically & am looking forward to getting up at 5am Wed for another shot.:)

Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody! :ThmbUp:

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Originally Posted by castaway01
However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on tote-board action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful.

Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter


INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.


BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.

Dahoss9698 09-05-2017 04:24 PM

Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

Hong Kong Turf 09-05-2017 05:36 PM

Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

thaskalos 09-05-2017 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 (Post 2216717)
Come on Nitro....give it up already. You've been talking and talking and talking. The ONE time you actually showed all us non believers how you actually bet, it produced a loss of $2295...then you disappeared.

:lol::lol::lol:

You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

Dahoss9698 09-05-2017 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2216735)
You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

:lol:

You're asking for it now.

woodbinepmi 09-05-2017 07:52 PM

Hong Kong for September 6th at Happy Valley. Second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a chance of showers. Wind: SW 4 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15m PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170906_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221


Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 :6: Bo Duke (13-1) Race *746 The 6th, 8th and 10th place runners have come back and won their next races.

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Planet Giant (7-1)
Race 4 :4: Flying Monkey (4-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :7: Fine With Me (3-1) Was taken back after the start, became rank going into the 1st turn while racing on the rail. Moved to the 6 path in the stretch while being blocked, closed well on the outside but unable to reach the lone speed winner. You have to go back four races to find a number fast enough to win at this class though.

Race 4 :8: Dr Race (4-1) Leaped out of the gate losing 2 lengths, settled 2 wide then moved to the middle of the track and closed well after getting on his proper lead, just missed out against a rival who had a much easier trip.

Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1) Drew the 11 hole going 6 furlongs at Happy Valley, was in a little tight running down the backside unable to get over was forced 3 wide in the turn uncovered, moved out a little wider in the lane and was just beaten a nose by the favourite who saved ground on the rail.

Key Play:
Race 6 :9: Cheer Win (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 7 :3: Kyrus Bowser (15-1)
Race 8 :10: Perpetual Joyance(11-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

AltonKelsey 09-05-2017 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2216735)
You have to admire his courage though...betting $480 a race. ReplayRandall was only betting $2 on his Saratoga picks...and he was waiting for applause. :)

Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

kevb 09-05-2017 09:06 PM

Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

betovernetcapper 09-05-2017 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevb (Post 2216803)
Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

DITTO
I'm not sure I can make a commitment to get up at 5am for the Happy Valley races, given that I slept till noon today, but will be betting Sha Tin for sure. I'm sure I could set up the computer to sound an wake up bell when someone bet a lot on :3:. Maybe I could develop some kind of App for my smart phone. It could be called (Drum Roll) The Nitro Alarm.:)

Seriously thanks for the hard work.

Hong Kong Turf 09-06-2017 12:32 AM

As I mentioned before the Sha Tin card, the emphasis of my posts will be on analysis of Hong Kong horse racing, rather than on selections. I’ll analyze the races through the lens of Hong Kong Turf past performances, but the insights here should be valuable no matter how you choose to analyze Hong Kong.

The race of the week this week is Race 7 from Happy Valley, a fascinating, deep Class 3, with many live contenders who look like they could be ready to win.

The par Speed Figure for this class is 91, and most of the runners here have met or exceeded that number recently enough to be dangerous. This may be a race to circle as a key race for horses coming back next out against thinner fields.

Analysis of Top Contenders (in Program # Order)

#1 Unicorn had a nightmarish trip under a low % apprentice last out, losing a shoe in the process, but prior to that had been consistently cashing checks at this class and distance. The hard knocking type will be coming late and is a threat to win this on his day. Currently at 11-1, he offers some value.

#3 Kyrus Bowser is lightly raced and improving, and his first 3 speed figures suggest he belongs in this class. Despite finishing 7th, 5th, and 7th in his first 3 starts, he wasn’t really beaten by much. Today he cuts back from 2000M to 1650M. Optimists say that will have him finishing more strongly; pessimists will say this is a tune-up for next time going longer. Can’t fault the optimists at 14-1.

#5 Bank on Red is another lightly raced horse whose last races were better than they look at first glance. He has rallied belatedly but with sharp final 400M times of under 23 seconds each race, and has been well-backed both times out. He loses Moreira here – never a confidence booster – but as the only 3YO in the race, he still has time to put it all together for John Size. Improvement is expected, and he is another contender.

Thunder Stomp (#6) is the early favorite. The 6YO gelding finished 3rd 4 out 5 starts to end last season, and gets the big rider switch to Moreira. Wong, a low percentage apprentice may have taken Thunder Stomp out of his best game last out riding aggressively to the lead after a middling start. The trainer Tsui won 2 races on the opening card at Sha Tin and is capable of having one ready first out at the season. Still, the 6 minor finishes to the 1 win ratio is a bit concerning for a horse who always gets bet hard, and I’m not convinced this is the best spot to pay the Moreira premium. Let’s try to do better.

#8 Imperial Seal is a very interesting runner here based off trainer stats. He is coming off of a 4 win season (all in Class 4), and now moves up to Class 3 for the 1st start of the season for Casper Fownes – a tremendous angle for the trainer (Up in Class off a Win: 29% win %/49% ROI). Purton sticks, adding to the appeal. With all that said, Imperial Seal needs to continue his upward trajectory to threaten these, and is a bit light in the speed figure department. Currently at 6.0, the value may not be there for this “wise guy horse.”

#9 Kiram is tough to knock. He came off a long layoff to win moving up in class 2 races back, and then followed it up with a creditable enough 4th to close out the season. The trainer Ferraris is 2-for-72 with his first starters of the meet, but that’s about his overall average, and he had a horse run 2nd on opening day. He fits at the level and is another contender with Teetan up.

#10 High Volatility is a very interesting, speedy runner in this spot. 3 back, he ran the top speed figure in the field (104) running 2nd behind Victory Boy, but ended the season with a dreadful, wide trip from the 12 post in which he couldn’t get the lead. Draw a line through that non-effort and he has the look of a prime contender for Lui, who has some above average trainer angles for this spot. The bad news? He has to do it from the 11 post. The good news? He’s currently 20-1 and has the speed to clear.

#11 Go Go Win moves up in class off a wire-to-wire score under the “Poon Train” Matthew Poon. Hard to knock a horse who has been in the exacta 5 straight, but he’ll need to do a bit better here, and not convinced he can grab the lead again with High Volatility in the race. Currently at 10-1, I might demand a bit more value before pulling the trigger.

Who do you like?

Alwaysonpoint36 09-07-2017 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey (Post 2216797)
Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

Been away for awhile
Did he really post a $2k loss :D:D:headbanger:

Link pls for the love of Christ

steveb 09-07-2017 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hong Kong Turf (Post 2216733)
Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

race 4 was only about 3 points slow imo.
it was about 22 slower than race 1 however.
NO manual adjustment, as i want mine to be speed and nothing else.
pace would be handled separately, but that said it's rare for the pace to be very fast or very slow.
too many top riders there ensuring that others don't get away with murder.

race 10 was the only one that went too fast i think, where the leaders got the stitch.
r6 to a lesser extent.
in those cases the one that pace the race best invariably win.

woodbinepmi 09-08-2017 05:08 PM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

steveb 09-08-2017 06:53 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi (Post 2217768)
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

my computers' opinion of the speeds.....

and go the tigers!!

woodbinepmi 09-09-2017 12:10 AM

Yes the 2nd was very slow, most likely due to the slow early pace. Track went slow in the middle of the card then quickened up a little for the last 3. As you know it will do the at the Valley at night.

It was real hard getting up this morning at 4.30 to watch the Tigers but well worth it. Played fantastic defence in the 4th quarter.

YELLOW AND BLACK!!!!!!

Thinking real hard about buying a plane ticket IF (don't want to jinx it) they make the Grand Final. Have been waiting 35 LONG years.

woodbinepmi 09-09-2017 08:44 PM

Hong Kong for September 10th at Sha Tin. Third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 40 % chance of showers. Wind: SSW 10 mph
Post time: 12.35am ET, 9.35m PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 11 Seven Luck (7-2) Is most likely the chalk because of Moreira, has yet to run in the money in his 12 race career and draws the outside post in the 1,000 metre sprint.

Race 4 11 Furious Pegasus (7-2) Draws the 13 hole in a Class 5 race which usually means doom. Has still not finished in the money in 20 races, there are others in here that have run much faster than him at better odds.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 2 Industrialist Way (8-1)
Race 4 2 Good Method (5-1)
Race 5 8 The Full Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 8 Solar Hei Hei (8-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 5 2 Silverfield (4-1) Was able to save ground on the turn but was blocked while looking for room in the stretch, extended himself well when given room only to miss by a half-length at the wire. Galloped out past the winner after the finish.

Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1) Broke a length slow then clipped heals , rushed up into contention soon afterward to settle in a few lengths back, tired late but should like to go a little longer.

Race 7 3 Winner’s Way (2-1) Became very rank entering the turn while racing 2 wide in the turnforced his way out early in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Thewizardofoz.

Race 7 6 Jolly Banner (13-1) Got the luck of the draw by getting the rail, saved ground but when ready to run was blocked with nowhere to go in the stretch. Closed well by weaving thru when able to find some room, but outclassed by the eventual winner.

Race 10 11 Pakistan Baby (6-1) Raced a little closer than normal, was in tight on the turn. Whyte had a strangle hold of him in the stretch while searching for room, finished well in tight room galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Key Play:
Race 9 2 Pingwu Spark (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 3 Unique Happiest (18-1)
Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1)
Race 10 4 Joyful Moments (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf 09-10-2017 01:09 AM

Race of the Day Analysis
 
Today’s Race of the Day from Sha Tin is the featured 7th Race: the Class 1 Kwantung Handicap Cup over 1400M. It’s a solid field top-to-bottom, with a couple who are running back quickly on 1 week’s rest. In the early betting, Winner’s Way and Magic Legend are taking most of the action – let’s see if there’s anyone else in here that can create some value for us.

#1 Horse of Fortune – A hard knocking 7 year old with 6 wins never gets much help from his handicap, but has proven his ability to carry an impost and beat some of the best horses in Hong Kong. He disappointed on closing day in Sha Tin, but prior to that, took a Grade 3 and finished a good 2nd with a 102 speed figure in a class 1. From a trainer statistics perspective, the outlook isn’t great with Millard low percentage off this kind of layoff and in the first start of the season. Still, on his day, he has a shot in the 15-1 to 20-1 range

#2 Romantic Touch – Moreira takes the mount, so we have to take notice. He mixed it up with the very best in Hong Kong last season, but didn’t come away with any wins, and is still just 2 for 36 lifetime. It seems fair to wonder if he might be tailing off a bit at 7 years old, but he does have the tactical speed to be well placed for Moreira. Tony Cruz’s trainer stats are fair for this spot, but it doesn’t quite look like his best race is good enough to beat the top choices in here, and with the Moreira premium, he feels like an underlay.

#3 Winner’s Way – The current favorite put things together late in the season, and progressed from Class 3 to Class 1 by the end of the season. He dominated a Class 2, then went wire to wire again for a Class 1. On June 25th, only a freak performance by The Wizard of Oz prevented him from scoring his first stakes race. In terms of speed figures, he is the rare Hong Kong horse who can bang out triple digit figures, and may find a comfortable lead for Purton. As mentioned for Romantic Touch, Cruz can get them ready early in the meet. Rock solid and deserving favorite.

#4 Magic Legend – The 2nd choice in the betting ran a great race one week ago for John Moore and Tommy Berry. Though he was 4th, the early indications are that that race was live (2nd place finisher Blizzard is off to Japan to compete in a G1). As a southern hemisphere 4 year old, he may be improving and peaking for this. 2-back, he was a half-length behind Winner’s Way at this class and distance, but picks up 7 pounds against that effort. Then there is this stat: when starting a horse on less than 10 days rest, John Moore is 6-for-24, with a 102% flat bet ROI. If he improves at all on last week’s start, he’s a bi danger and would be no surprise.

#5 Marvel Hero – Try this: cross out this runner’s last start, where he went 2200 and faltered in the stretch: it wouldn’t be difficult to make a case for him being a rapidly improving late bloomer. 2 back, he absolutely destroyed a Class 1 field (albeit with a light weight) and earned a 106 speed figure, which would probably be good enough for this. With that said, he likely wants more ground than he’ll get here, and Casper Fownes using the low % apprentice adds to the perception that this may be a prep for something longer next out. Still, he’ll be 25-1 or longer, and it seems like a mistake to toss him completely.

#6 Jolly Banner – Here’s another hard knocking contender who enters this off of a nice campaign last season. He also exits the 6/25 Grade 3, and while he ran behind Winners’ Way and Magic Legend that day, he had a bit of trouble in the stretch and wasn’t beaten by much. He’s fairly lightly raced for a 6YO, and could be figuring things out. He may a shade behind the top 2, but has a favorable weight assignment and rates a genuine upset glance.

#7 Supreme Profit – Currently the longest shot on the board, this 7 year old won a grade 3 last season and is a 9 time winner in Hong Kong. After the G3 win in February, the form took a turn for the worse, however, with declining speed figures and series on non-competitive finishers. Add to that that this race looks well below his preferred, and he has the look of an outsider.

#8 Solar Hei Hei – The popular runner steps up from Class 2 for this and picks up hot apprentice Matthew Poon and so will carry just 106 pounds. You don’t win 7 of 27 by accident, and there are a few speed figures on the page that would be competitive in this, but this does seem like a stretch on his overall class. He ran a solid 2nd in a class 2 just a week ago, but these are much tougher. Even with the feather weight tonight, he looks in over his head.

Who do you like?

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 02:11 AM

After race 2, I am planning on visiting a Voodoo Preacher Sunday & buying a J Moreira doll and about 100 pins. :)

woodbinepmi 09-10-2017 02:28 AM

Send me the bill!

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 02:40 AM

LOL after the :8:won I'm just buying 50 pins :)

kevb 09-10-2017 03:46 AM

Wishing a good journey to Woodbine's two HTW horses

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 06:41 PM

Lost 1st two to Moreira, won the 3rd, & lost the 4th to #13 who was completely under my radar. At that point the Valium started to kick in & I made a big win bet on Woodpine's key pick 2 Pingwu Spark in the 9th & went to bed.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/...no=09&lang=eng

Given the results, I don't feel right sending the bill for the J Moreira Voodoo doll & 50 pins to Woodpine. I should make a religious donation every 1/2 century or so & this is it. :)

woodbinepmi 09-10-2017 11:25 PM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Gamblor 09-12-2017 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi (Post 2218756)
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Top analysis, thanks very much. Question - what are your speed figure adjustments? Is how many pounds you think it takes to impact 1L at each distance?

woodbinepmi 09-12-2017 09:17 PM

Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.

woodbinepmi 09-12-2017 10:08 PM

Hong Kong for September 13th at Happy Valley. Fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 50 % chance of showers. Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :5: Dr Listening (3-1) Is running for a new barn since leaving John Size. Is a very consistent racer but going up from Class 3 to Class 2 is a nice jump in class and drawing the 11 hole in the short run to the first turn may be little tough for his first time against a tough Class 2 field.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :5: Emperor Victory (13-1)
Race 5 :5: Sparkling Sword (15-1)
Race 6 :5: Ten Flames (12-1)
Race 7 :2: Extremely Fun (30-1)
Race 7 :4: Back In Black (16-1)
Race 7 :11: Bold Elegance (22-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Smart Boy (3-1) Raced in the rear moved from the 2 path to the 3 path half-way thru the turn, was blocked by three runners in front of him early in the stretch, moved to the outside and closed well but move was started when the winner was finding room near the rail.

Race 7 :6: Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1) Broke well on the rail, settled in behind the first flight, was asked at the 600 metre mark but was forced down back to the rail entering the stretch while looking for room. Looked hesitant to go thru with a whip being used right in front of his face. Closed well when able to find room.

Key Play:
Race 8 :2: Doyeni (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :4: The Show (13-1)
Race 4 :2: Iron Boy (10-1)
Race 6 :9: Magnetism (5-1)
Race 7 :1: Breeders’ Star (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf 09-12-2017 11:42 PM

#2 Doyeni must have been the best horse in Hong Kong not to win a race last season. While he mustered only a 3rd place from 4 starts, he was flying late in every start, missing by a length or less against top milers Booming Delight and Eastern Express on 2 separate occasions. He has shown the ability to consistently eclipse a triple digit speed figure, even under a significant impost as he’ll deal with today (under 128 pounds, he is the effective high weight after #1 Packing Dragon drops 7 pounds under apprentice Matthew Poon). In his only performance last season in which earned below a 99 speed figure, his jockey, Kei Chiong earned a suspension for questionable riding tactics in the stretch.

On the downside, he will need to win from barrier #10, and jockey Douglas Whyte has yet to hit the board this season. The idea is that he will be able to get over and settle without losing too much ground before uncorking a huge rally. With a reasonable run he should inhale these in the straight. Currently at odds of 9.1, he’s a terrific bet at a big price.

Gamblor 09-13-2017 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi (Post 2219357)
Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.


Yeah but I mean the table you list in your posts with adjustments for each distance, to what does it refer?

Gamblor 09-13-2017 08:22 AM

My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7
R5 think #11 is big overs, and the 10 for that matter, 11-10-1-2-3
R6 I'm drawn to Magnetism, will be backing it, 9-2-1-10-4
R7 too tough 6-11-5-12-10
R8 I'll be asleep by this time too tough anyway 10-6-11-5-9

Gamblor 09-13-2017 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamblor (Post 2219421)
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1

2 wins from 9, quinella pays 40/1. :jump::p:ThmbUp::):pound::rant::coffee::headbanger :

Did I say the race was too tough? I meant too easy!! :headbanger::headbanger::headbanger::jump:

Gamblor 09-13-2017 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamblor (Post 2219421)
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1 - 2,9 quinella 40/1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11 11 dead heats for first at 40/1
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7 E-super bolts in

Gee... this game isn't too hard, is it? Why's there so many threads on here about this and that, millions of discussions about speed figures and blah blah blah, don't worry about that garbage, just follow the Gamblor mail!!

Gamblor 09-13-2017 10:24 AM

R5 sends me back to earth with a thud.

Magnetism has drawn out all the money in my account, to have on it the win. Come on!! :headbanger::bang::headbanger:

kevb 09-13-2017 10:52 AM

Good pickin' Gamblor. You and Poon are hot tonight.


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