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betovernetcapper 09-05-2017 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevb (Post 2216803)
Woodbine. Thanks for the Horse to Watch list.

DITTO
I'm not sure I can make a commitment to get up at 5am for the Happy Valley races, given that I slept till noon today, but will be betting Sha Tin for sure. I'm sure I could set up the computer to sound an wake up bell when someone bet a lot on :3:. Maybe I could develop some kind of App for my smart phone. It could be called (Drum Roll) The Nitro Alarm.:)

Seriously thanks for the hard work.

Hong Kong Turf 09-06-2017 12:32 AM

As I mentioned before the Sha Tin card, the emphasis of my posts will be on analysis of Hong Kong horse racing, rather than on selections. I’ll analyze the races through the lens of Hong Kong Turf past performances, but the insights here should be valuable no matter how you choose to analyze Hong Kong.

The race of the week this week is Race 7 from Happy Valley, a fascinating, deep Class 3, with many live contenders who look like they could be ready to win.

The par Speed Figure for this class is 91, and most of the runners here have met or exceeded that number recently enough to be dangerous. This may be a race to circle as a key race for horses coming back next out against thinner fields.

Analysis of Top Contenders (in Program # Order)

#1 Unicorn had a nightmarish trip under a low % apprentice last out, losing a shoe in the process, but prior to that had been consistently cashing checks at this class and distance. The hard knocking type will be coming late and is a threat to win this on his day. Currently at 11-1, he offers some value.

#3 Kyrus Bowser is lightly raced and improving, and his first 3 speed figures suggest he belongs in this class. Despite finishing 7th, 5th, and 7th in his first 3 starts, he wasn’t really beaten by much. Today he cuts back from 2000M to 1650M. Optimists say that will have him finishing more strongly; pessimists will say this is a tune-up for next time going longer. Can’t fault the optimists at 14-1.

#5 Bank on Red is another lightly raced horse whose last races were better than they look at first glance. He has rallied belatedly but with sharp final 400M times of under 23 seconds each race, and has been well-backed both times out. He loses Moreira here – never a confidence booster – but as the only 3YO in the race, he still has time to put it all together for John Size. Improvement is expected, and he is another contender.

Thunder Stomp (#6) is the early favorite. The 6YO gelding finished 3rd 4 out 5 starts to end last season, and gets the big rider switch to Moreira. Wong, a low percentage apprentice may have taken Thunder Stomp out of his best game last out riding aggressively to the lead after a middling start. The trainer Tsui won 2 races on the opening card at Sha Tin and is capable of having one ready first out at the season. Still, the 6 minor finishes to the 1 win ratio is a bit concerning for a horse who always gets bet hard, and I’m not convinced this is the best spot to pay the Moreira premium. Let’s try to do better.

#8 Imperial Seal is a very interesting runner here based off trainer stats. He is coming off of a 4 win season (all in Class 4), and now moves up to Class 3 for the 1st start of the season for Casper Fownes – a tremendous angle for the trainer (Up in Class off a Win: 29% win %/49% ROI). Purton sticks, adding to the appeal. With all that said, Imperial Seal needs to continue his upward trajectory to threaten these, and is a bit light in the speed figure department. Currently at 6.0, the value may not be there for this “wise guy horse.”

#9 Kiram is tough to knock. He came off a long layoff to win moving up in class 2 races back, and then followed it up with a creditable enough 4th to close out the season. The trainer Ferraris is 2-for-72 with his first starters of the meet, but that’s about his overall average, and he had a horse run 2nd on opening day. He fits at the level and is another contender with Teetan up.

#10 High Volatility is a very interesting, speedy runner in this spot. 3 back, he ran the top speed figure in the field (104) running 2nd behind Victory Boy, but ended the season with a dreadful, wide trip from the 12 post in which he couldn’t get the lead. Draw a line through that non-effort and he has the look of a prime contender for Lui, who has some above average trainer angles for this spot. The bad news? He has to do it from the 11 post. The good news? He’s currently 20-1 and has the speed to clear.

#11 Go Go Win moves up in class off a wire-to-wire score under the “Poon Train” Matthew Poon. Hard to knock a horse who has been in the exacta 5 straight, but he’ll need to do a bit better here, and not convinced he can grab the lead again with High Volatility in the race. Currently at 10-1, I might demand a bit more value before pulling the trigger.

Who do you like?

Alwaysonpoint36 09-07-2017 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey (Post 2216797)
Nitro knows, the more you bet the more you win!

Been away for awhile
Did he really post a $2k loss :D:D:headbanger:

Link pls for the love of Christ

steveb 09-07-2017 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hong Kong Turf (Post 2216733)
Interesting analysis Woodbine, and always great seeing other folks getting seriously involved with the Hong Kong game.

Just curious about the scaling of your speed figures, and in particular the 4th race. The way I assessed the 4th was as below average for the level, and more than 15 speed figure points below the 1st out winner in the 1st race. Did you make any manual adjustments for pace, etc there?

I am preparing some thoughts on tomorrow's Happy Valley card and will add them to this thread. Let's get some good discussion going.

Aaron

@HK_Turf

race 4 was only about 3 points slow imo.
it was about 22 slower than race 1 however.
NO manual adjustment, as i want mine to be speed and nothing else.
pace would be handled separately, but that said it's rare for the pace to be very fast or very slow.
too many top riders there ensuring that others don't get away with murder.

race 10 was the only one that went too fast i think, where the leaders got the stitch.
r6 to a lesser extent.
in those cases the one that pace the race best invariably win.

woodbinepmi 09-08-2017 05:08 PM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

steveb 09-08-2017 06:53 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi (Post 2217768)
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 6th
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *705, *720, *722, *746 (4 winners so far).
Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #2 The Sylph – Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 6 #5 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Speedy Wally – Final figure came back slow for a run against Class 4 runners he’ll face next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (011): 93
2nd (012): - 95 #
3rd (013): 91
4th (014): 95
5th (015): - 97
6th (016): 100
7th (017): 100
8th (018): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8 1,800 – 1.5
1,200 – 2.3 2,000 – 1.3
1,400 – 1.9 2,200 – 1.2
1,600 – 1.7 2,400 – 1
1,650 – 1.6

Pars:
Graded stakes 110
Class 1 107
Class 2 104
Class 3 100
Class 4 96
Class 5 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

my computers' opinion of the speeds.....

and go the tigers!!

woodbinepmi 09-09-2017 12:10 AM

Yes the 2nd was very slow, most likely due to the slow early pace. Track went slow in the middle of the card then quickened up a little for the last 3. As you know it will do the at the Valley at night.

It was real hard getting up this morning at 4.30 to watch the Tigers but well worth it. Played fantastic defence in the 4th quarter.

YELLOW AND BLACK!!!!!!

Thinking real hard about buying a plane ticket IF (don't want to jinx it) they make the Grand Final. Have been waiting 35 LONG years.

woodbinepmi 09-09-2017 08:44 PM

Hong Kong for September 10th at Sha Tin. Third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 40 % chance of showers. Wind: SSW 10 mph
Post time: 12.35am ET, 9.35m PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170910_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 11 Seven Luck (7-2) Is most likely the chalk because of Moreira, has yet to run in the money in his 12 race career and draws the outside post in the 1,000 metre sprint.

Race 4 11 Furious Pegasus (7-2) Draws the 13 hole in a Class 5 race which usually means doom. Has still not finished in the money in 20 races, there are others in here that have run much faster than him at better odds.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 2 Industrialist Way (8-1)
Race 4 2 Good Method (5-1)
Race 5 8 The Full Bloom (6-1)
Race 7 8 Solar Hei Hei (8-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 5 2 Silverfield (4-1) Was able to save ground on the turn but was blocked while looking for room in the stretch, extended himself well when given room only to miss by a half-length at the wire. Galloped out past the winner after the finish.

Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1) Broke a length slow then clipped heals , rushed up into contention soon afterward to settle in a few lengths back, tired late but should like to go a little longer.

Race 7 3 Winner’s Way (2-1) Became very rank entering the turn while racing 2 wide in the turnforced his way out early in the stretch but couldn’t hold off Thewizardofoz.

Race 7 6 Jolly Banner (13-1) Got the luck of the draw by getting the rail, saved ground but when ready to run was blocked with nowhere to go in the stretch. Closed well by weaving thru when able to find some room, but outclassed by the eventual winner.

Race 10 11 Pakistan Baby (6-1) Raced a little closer than normal, was in tight on the turn. Whyte had a strangle hold of him in the stretch while searching for room, finished well in tight room galloped out past the winner after the wire.

Key Play:
Race 9 2 Pingwu Spark (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 3 Unique Happiest (18-1)
Race 5 10 Beaut Beaut (13-1)
Race 10 4 Joyful Moments (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Turf 09-10-2017 01:09 AM

Race of the Day Analysis
 
Today’s Race of the Day from Sha Tin is the featured 7th Race: the Class 1 Kwantung Handicap Cup over 1400M. It’s a solid field top-to-bottom, with a couple who are running back quickly on 1 week’s rest. In the early betting, Winner’s Way and Magic Legend are taking most of the action – let’s see if there’s anyone else in here that can create some value for us.

#1 Horse of Fortune – A hard knocking 7 year old with 6 wins never gets much help from his handicap, but has proven his ability to carry an impost and beat some of the best horses in Hong Kong. He disappointed on closing day in Sha Tin, but prior to that, took a Grade 3 and finished a good 2nd with a 102 speed figure in a class 1. From a trainer statistics perspective, the outlook isn’t great with Millard low percentage off this kind of layoff and in the first start of the season. Still, on his day, he has a shot in the 15-1 to 20-1 range

#2 Romantic Touch – Moreira takes the mount, so we have to take notice. He mixed it up with the very best in Hong Kong last season, but didn’t come away with any wins, and is still just 2 for 36 lifetime. It seems fair to wonder if he might be tailing off a bit at 7 years old, but he does have the tactical speed to be well placed for Moreira. Tony Cruz’s trainer stats are fair for this spot, but it doesn’t quite look like his best race is good enough to beat the top choices in here, and with the Moreira premium, he feels like an underlay.

#3 Winner’s Way – The current favorite put things together late in the season, and progressed from Class 3 to Class 1 by the end of the season. He dominated a Class 2, then went wire to wire again for a Class 1. On June 25th, only a freak performance by The Wizard of Oz prevented him from scoring his first stakes race. In terms of speed figures, he is the rare Hong Kong horse who can bang out triple digit figures, and may find a comfortable lead for Purton. As mentioned for Romantic Touch, Cruz can get them ready early in the meet. Rock solid and deserving favorite.

#4 Magic Legend – The 2nd choice in the betting ran a great race one week ago for John Moore and Tommy Berry. Though he was 4th, the early indications are that that race was live (2nd place finisher Blizzard is off to Japan to compete in a G1). As a southern hemisphere 4 year old, he may be improving and peaking for this. 2-back, he was a half-length behind Winner’s Way at this class and distance, but picks up 7 pounds against that effort. Then there is this stat: when starting a horse on less than 10 days rest, John Moore is 6-for-24, with a 102% flat bet ROI. If he improves at all on last week’s start, he’s a bi danger and would be no surprise.

#5 Marvel Hero – Try this: cross out this runner’s last start, where he went 2200 and faltered in the stretch: it wouldn’t be difficult to make a case for him being a rapidly improving late bloomer. 2 back, he absolutely destroyed a Class 1 field (albeit with a light weight) and earned a 106 speed figure, which would probably be good enough for this. With that said, he likely wants more ground than he’ll get here, and Casper Fownes using the low % apprentice adds to the perception that this may be a prep for something longer next out. Still, he’ll be 25-1 or longer, and it seems like a mistake to toss him completely.

#6 Jolly Banner – Here’s another hard knocking contender who enters this off of a nice campaign last season. He also exits the 6/25 Grade 3, and while he ran behind Winners’ Way and Magic Legend that day, he had a bit of trouble in the stretch and wasn’t beaten by much. He’s fairly lightly raced for a 6YO, and could be figuring things out. He may a shade behind the top 2, but has a favorable weight assignment and rates a genuine upset glance.

#7 Supreme Profit – Currently the longest shot on the board, this 7 year old won a grade 3 last season and is a 9 time winner in Hong Kong. After the G3 win in February, the form took a turn for the worse, however, with declining speed figures and series on non-competitive finishers. Add to that that this race looks well below his preferred, and he has the look of an outsider.

#8 Solar Hei Hei – The popular runner steps up from Class 2 for this and picks up hot apprentice Matthew Poon and so will carry just 106 pounds. You don’t win 7 of 27 by accident, and there are a few speed figures on the page that would be competitive in this, but this does seem like a stretch on his overall class. He ran a solid 2nd in a class 2 just a week ago, but these are much tougher. Even with the feather weight tonight, he looks in over his head.

Who do you like?

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 02:11 AM

After race 2, I am planning on visiting a Voodoo Preacher Sunday & buying a J Moreira doll and about 100 pins. :)

woodbinepmi 09-10-2017 02:28 AM

Send me the bill!

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 02:40 AM

LOL after the :8:won I'm just buying 50 pins :)

kevb 09-10-2017 03:46 AM

Wishing a good journey to Woodbine's two HTW horses

betovernetcapper 09-10-2017 06:41 PM

Lost 1st two to Moreira, won the 3rd, & lost the 4th to #13 who was completely under my radar. At that point the Valium started to kick in & I made a big win bet on Woodpine's key pick 2 Pingwu Spark in the 9th & went to bed.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/...no=09&lang=eng

Given the results, I don't feel right sending the bill for the J Moreira Voodoo doll & 50 pins to Woodpine. I should make a religious donation every 1/2 century or so & this is it. :)

woodbinepmi 09-10-2017 11:25 PM

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.


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