What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?
 

What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?

At least 30 to 1. Maybe more.

I think he is an almost certain loser.

What odds will you give me, I will take a bet. 15/1?

The track is going to offer me excellent odds. I think this is the betting opportunity of a lifetime.

I would rather bet Justify at 1/1 or lower.

4/1 or higher he would have ZERO chance of winning. He would be so Icey on the odds board, it would shatter.

How I bet depends more on the odds of the horses I like for a tri or super. So even money or less is expected and ok.

I think 3/1 would be a good price, but won't happen, especially with the main contenders dropping like flies. I think it will be closer to 8/5.

Bravazo & Tenfold will get some interest but I don't think either of them will be under 5-1. They were 15-1 & 26-1 in the Preakness.

I think Justify will go off around 4/5.

I wouldn't be surprised.

But since Todd Pletcher won this race last year by skipping the Preakness, I think Vino Rosso and Noble Indy will both get some buzz, say around 4-1 each. Bravazo & Tenfold at 5-1, so we have, 16 + 16 + 20 + 20, which adds up to 72 (we need 125). There's always some interest in the Peter Pan winner so that's probably around 7-1 (12 points). The rest of the field might add up to 10-1, that's another 9 points, leaving 32 for Justify or 2-1.

I put it at 3/2 ... I'd start to seriously look at him at this point.

Who will be the pace? That's the trick. Will he "handle" Big Sandy?

Justify will be much lower than 2-1. Vino Rosso and Noble Indy at 4-1 each? Maybe 5-1 and 10-1. Justify will be no higher than 3-5 odds.

4/5 at best. Wayyyy too many $2 souvenirs will be bought.

I can get 1/2 at my sportsbook right now, so 95% chance it will be at least that high...

One thing for certain, how low Justify goes will have a huge impact on the value of everyone else, which isn't exactly something you didn't know, but I was looking at the odds of the last three Belmont TC attempts:

*AP 0.75
4.1
5.4
14.1
14.6
17.2
19.9
21.7

Chrome 0.85
5.3
8.3
8.9
9.2*
19.5
24.75
28.0
34
34.5
40.75


Big Brown 0.30
7.2
14.5
17.0
17.4
25.0
28.75
34.25
38.5*

* = winner

Maybe now that someone has actually won the TC (AP) bettors will be more likely to pound Justify down to Big Brown level. Whereas Chrome's and AP's relatively high odds were due to bettor frustration over years of TC flops.

If even money or lower, you'd be a damn fool to bet Justify to win, because there is a much better bet.

I've posted on this before, too. It's such a good bet, I won't tell you. I think you guys may know what I'm talking about.

Paid fairly well with AP (-:

A friend didn't sack up with a G on it like I did :p