Picking pacelines
 

Hello,

I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.

Thanks,
Gun

Read the conditions of the race


Read the Past Performances from the bottom up for the history of the
horse

Form performance from the last line can tell a lot


Eliminate any horse over 30-1

Gun..

this is what makes this game so great.....
everyone can develop their own style on playing this game...
I suggest reading books and take it from there....

This can be a starter:

back in the day, someone develop the( +, -, or a + inside a circle) )approach to assign to each paceline......then take it from that

Mike

Here are some guidelines that may help:

try to pick pacelines from the same distance structure (sprint/route) and surface (dirt/turf/synthetic)

try to find a representative race within the last 3 or 4 races, if possible.

avoid lines that appear aberrant in a good or bad sense*, or where the horse experienced trouble in the running or at the start. Where possible, avoid races that were taken off the turf.

within the context of the above guidelines, prefer a line from a race at today's track to one at another track

most important - try to pick a line that as closely as possible matches today's projected pace.

Following these guidelines may lead to contradictory choices, so when in doubt pick a line as close to the top as possible

* for example, (don't pick) the only race in the visible past performances where the horse took the lead, or a race on an off track where the field was strung out through the running.

Practice and concentration while handicapping will improve your paceline selections over time. If you can handicap a couple races per day without betting and go back after the races are run to critique your own work, that is probably the fastest way to get good at picking pacelines. It's more an art than a science, so don't expect perfection.

I've not used paceline selection in well-over a decade, but I can tell you how I did it then.

First, I built a set of rules that start with the most preferred/represented lines, and worked backwards. Then I fine-tuned the rules.

I can tell you that this was not an easy endeavor. It took me many hours but was worth the effort.

Eventually, I coded it into my software. (Coded it as a programmable system for the end user.)

The key to making the entire process work is to begin with 40 or 50 horses, selecting paceline(s), and formulating "Why" as a set of steps.

For example:
(My opinion)
The most representative paceline in a dirt sprint race is the most recent dirt sprint in which the horse was within a head (win or lose) at the finish.

This approach tells you how good this horse really is. If he lost and is really better than this, he would have won. If he won by a head and was actually better, it wouldn't have been so close.


Dave

For older horses, besides making sure that the distance and surface match, make sure that the pace line also matches the horses running style. Younger lightly raced horses might show two or three different running styles, but older horses, especially claiming types, usually have 1 established running style.

Looking at pace is key for form's sake but picking a paceline is relatively simple. If the horse has a competitive race see how it stacks up to everybody else's competitive race. If it doesn't the analysis is over. If it does and is overlooked you might have a bet!

Good points

May I ask did the horse have impact its last race or can one excuse last line and use the second line back and our evaluation again.

How much confidence would you have if the Horse record was 1-31

Answers:

1) This might surprise you and the rest...you can use any line in PP!!

2) I limit horses to 10 races...if you couldn't win by then....or a 10% win record....TOSS

Mike

Think about this Dave...

Actually YOU ARE using paceline selections in every race you do....

maybe its not by your hand but it is your set of rules that created it..

a PC doesnt run on its own ...you told it what to do and look for in each race

Mike

I'm no expert on that situation, but what's work best for me, is finding the best of the last three races run at today's distance and surface, and beaten by no more than 5 and 3/4 lengths. Those three races can be found anywhere in the chart or could very well be the very last three races run. I use the Taulbot pace software so these lines are automatically picked for me.

Thank you Atlasaxis:

I use the very same rules/principles when picking my own pacelines for any particular race. Love Ray Taulbot... :)

I know you do Vinnie! Good to see you again my friend! :-)

I purchased this and find it useful


https://www.master2horses.com/non-contenders.html

let us know how it does..

I ordered as soon as this was posted two days ago - so far, no product by email, no replies to mine.

Will advise.

Pacelines
 

Tom,

I want to say thanks for the information. I tried to call that number and sent a email with no reply back.

Topgun

Pacelines
 

I also bought a pick 3 pick 4 service All I got was a receipt from PayPal and no confirmation. Sent 2 e-mails and left a message on his phone. all I got that he would be back in an hour tried again same message. Tried yesterday all I got was a busy signal all day

Pacelines
 

Hello,

I call the number all day long and it was also busy.

I'm going to call PayPal and ask for a refund.
Let you know what happens.

When your website says same day delivery, or next morning, that is what I expect.

Pacelines
 

Tom,

I agree with you, as it looks like a scam, we hope not.

Thanks!
Gun

I no the feeling .

Got through on the phone today.
No product will be shipped. Refund coming.
Guy has been sick and can't continue it.

Pacelines
 

Tom,

Thanks for the heads up! Glad you getting your money back.

Gun

I know that many of the systems/analysts in HSH are based on composite (?) factors and weighted ranks. The original NewPace employee concepts such as population samples, weighted/composite numbers. Dave fine tuned the approach over time, but the point is that an analyst does not use a single paceline to represent “the” horse. It attempts to take into account the horse’s history (or comparable parts of it) and weighs it against the other runners and expected profit/loss ($net).

Hey Jeeb....

I had/used New Pace too...
What was your take on it..?
Still use it?


Mike

That is exactly right. Thanks, Jeebus.

The idea is to emulate paceline selection without actually selecting pacelines. It works amazingly well.

Consider the old Sartin concept of EP-SP-W being the only factors.

https://www.practicalhandicapping.co...artin%20Fx.jpg

You wind up with 10 pacelines, each with 3 possibilities=30 choices. Then you interpret the model and ultimately use one column. (or maybe more)

Thus, if you chose the 2nd paceline back and decided that EP was the column to use...

https://www.practicalhandicapping.co...rtin%20Fx2.jpg


All we've done is built a modeling process that begins with the 3 columns, based upon things like Last Race, Best of Last 2 Races, 2nd Best ever, etc. In this example, there are actually 39 possible choices.

Thus, if our model said that the most important factor was EP, Best-2-of-Last-3, we'd select this:

https://www.practicalhandicapping.co...wartz%20Fx.jpg


We actually model 8 factors x 13 measurements, so there are 104 possible choices.

All of this, without selecting an actual paceline.

BTW, in the new software I am building which I hope will be in beta before the Derby, there are around 10,000 combinations.


Dave

Good stuff, as always, Dave

Update:

File a claim with PayPal today, as no refund has come yet.

Tom...Lets go get that UPTHECREEK GUY...