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| the little guy |
08-15-2022 08:05 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
(Post 2824401)
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
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Isn't the worst part of that story that 70% of the pool was CAW money?
This is the biggest problem, and sadly there are others, with Jackpot bets. The carryover gets built on the backs of small players and then CAW players come in and sweep it in on force out day. The sooner these bets go away the better.
I won't hold my breath. |
| MJC922 |
08-15-2022 08:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by $w1fT
(Post 2824400)
We know that. The casual or new bettor doesnt. They see that and find something else to bet on.
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It's a good point. Casuals who bet flat are rare but I suppose this may be why. More likely is they just want 5 figure scores. Anyway, players (both serious and casual) deserve to not have to be sitting there with a spreadsheet at arms length all day long. I do think the info should be made readily available to put a lot of this to rest. |
How many years did it take toget standard color saddle cloths? :rolleyes:
This is high tech stuff, not like going to the moon, which took lees than 9 years from JFK to one small step.
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| lamboguy |
08-15-2022 09:02 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Gobbi
(Post 2824375)
CRW is pretty much the only thing keeping handle numbers afloat at most tracks
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i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now. |
| BarchCapper |
08-15-2022 09:39 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
(Post 2824404)
Isn't the worst part of that story that 70% of the pool was CAW money?
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Yes. Tied into it being CAW money into a high % takeout pool, it's so "comforting" to know that their newly wagered money is also being heavily rebated. :mad:
I hope that continually seeing the amount of new money brought in by the carryovers on the regular pick 6 at NYRA will gradually convince other track operators to put the jackpots away for good.
Granted, I'd also prefer that the pendulum would keep swinging back towards a return to higher churn single race wagering. |
| Onesome |
08-15-2022 10:01 PM |
what was the fixed odds price on the horse in the end?
Edit: final sp was 7/5....and people are shocked the tote money came in late on a horse showing 4-1 that was 7/5 fixed?
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| PaceAdvantage |
08-15-2022 11:28 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
(Post 2824417)
i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now.
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Man you're a dreamer |
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
(Post 2824404)
The carryover gets built on the backs of small players and then CAW players come in and sweep it in on force out day .
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Is this an assumption or actually based on factual bet data (real question, no snark)? Honestly I always thought it's the CAW's in these jackpot pools day in & out cause we hear about the massive rebates they're getting from these tracks (also just speculation, I have never seen actual proof) & I feel like the payouts on most of these bets on a daily basis suggest heavy CAW activity. The only track that I follow regularly which I would think does not have heavy (or any) CAW activity in their jackpot bet would be Churchill, as their pick 6 generally has a mediocre pool, despite a fairly attractive takeout situation. |
| lamboguy |
08-16-2022 05:19 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
(Post 2824440)
Man you're a dreamer
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that's what this country is all about, dreaming big. |
| lamboguy |
08-16-2022 05:34 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
(Post 2824401)
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
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that's a tremendous explanation for the money that came in on the eventual winner the 4 horse. but it does not explain the $1500 that disappeared from the 1 entry from the start of the race to the finish of it. |
| westernmassbob |
08-16-2022 07:25 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
(Post 2824401)
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
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These type of situations are great for a small ticket player especially if the bet chalks out. The infusion of that much cash will always return a higher payoff then normal. That’s why it’s always better to wait for force out day’s to play these gimmick bets. Andy Beyer has given horse bettors this same type of advice. |
| castaway01 |
08-16-2022 08:54 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
(Post 2824417)
i would like to bet that if they shored up the tote and got rid of the CAW, the handles would at least double now.
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If they got rid of CAW, handle would drop 50%. It's literally how racing survives in many places (that and slot machines). You have to wake up to reality at some point.
I finally shut down my NJ betting account this week. The game is virtually unplayable now, and that's not going to change when the thing making the game unplayable is also what is keeping it alive. |
| classhandicapper |
08-16-2022 09:29 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
(Post 2824401)
It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
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There are ways to fix this, but it would require investing in software upgrades and wind up reducing handle from the biggest bettors.
Who is going to spend money to reduce their own handle? |
| metro |
08-16-2022 09:30 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
(Post 2824401)
On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the “go” button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and don’t get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. It’s all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the “bell”. I’m all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.
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That's hard to believe. I thought the whole point of CRW groups was to find inefficiencies in wagering pools. When they are 70% of any pool how is that efficient? Wouldn't their systems stop betting at some point?
Back to the original post....the easiest way for tracks to address situations like this with the late odds drop are to be transparent with the last minute or so of wagers. Open the books, let the betting public see the amounts and time stamps of the wagers. |
| BarchCapper |
08-16-2022 10:06 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
(Post 2824457)
that's a tremendous explanation for the money that came in on the eventual winner the 4 horse. but it does not explain the $1500 that disappeared from the 1 entry from the start of the race to the finish of it.
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Cancelled wager occurring in that same time frame also not reflected until the last flash? I believe I've read that the CAWs have more restrictions on cancelling wagers given the type of access they have, but it may not be a complete restriction. Could be some other large wagerer with a cancel that took until the last second to approve because of its size. I have no trouble agreeing that regardless of the legitimacy of these changes - the optics are ugly, and whatever steps that are available to improve those optics should be taken. |
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