Sticking To Your Guns?
 

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo..._Thoughts_123#

The above article I found as a great read and wanted to pass it along. Makes me want to ask the question. How much do you stick to the information youve learned from the first pts race thru the Arkansas Derby and how much you let the chatter change your mind from the Arkansas Derby thru race day?

a lot changes with those horses between the prep races and first saturday. the race is always impossible to handicap and if you do handicap it more than likely you will be on one of the top 4 choices in the betting pools.

You started a thread (tosses), i posted that Hence was a horse i was tossing. After reading some of the opinions on this site, i went back and looked again at this horse. After that i thought i might have to use him in the derby. Then, a couple days later i watched his Sunland Derby and now am back with my original point of view. Good thing there is only a week left before the derby, because i can only change my mind 7 more times.

I am sticking to my Gunnevera

Yep. Even if one of my choices draws the rail or 17 hole.

* Most WEIGHT ever carried....

* Most DISTANCE ever travelled....

I stick to these same sobering premises with every new iteration of the Derby....

This one rings a huge bell for me!

Weight over distance, a classic factor too often under used in modern handicapping. I'm keeping this one near the top of my list LK, thanks. Classic reminder.

I am sticking to this and it's 1 race theory. Buildup is great! I have had to timeout myself on this so I am not offering my own psychotic version of Derby fever! Sticking to my guns to POT!

Last line is a classic J!

None of the above! :eek:

We know Nitro, we know...you'll be playing Hong Kong :lol:

I will be playing HK, but not on SAT afternoon!

So tell us what you'll use to get a winning play in the Derby?

It was a joke Nitro..easy mon!

Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.

Keep it real. :cool:

Derby Week chatter is a good example of the things that our brain's Conformation Bias has evolved to protect us from.

In general, we should stick to our guns.


However, nothing beats skilled unbiased, rational application of true insight.