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formula_2002

10-05-2021 09:04 AM

1 Attachment(s)

THREE LINE GRAPHS.. ONE OBSERVATION IS THAT IN ALL THREE GRAPHS THE END OF LINE APPROACHES 1, BREAK EVEN

formula_2002

10-05-2021 11:23 PM

found a few errors and made corrections
now have 112 races, the $1 normalized return, which I previously mentioned may well be the best indicator of long term results, now returns $0.94 on the dollar. I'll post some charts after 200 races.

removing 7 outliers, the $1 normalized returns becomes $0.96
in addition when the bet size is >=100 the $1 normalized return is $1.01 in 71 races.

nuckman

10-06-2021 09:44 AM

Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.

formula_2002

10-06-2021 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuckman (Post 2758551)

Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.

Yesteday I used the statscalculator to find the "bet size outliers", today I used it to find "return" outliers. eliminating both sets of outliers brought the $1 normalized return down to something much less than $1.01, say about $0.88 to $0.92, depending on what races are included.

formula_2002

10-07-2021 04:17 PM

1 Attachment(s)

A BIT MORE THAN DUTCHING

PART OF THE STUDY.

formula_2002

10-12-2021 10:15 PM

Code:

Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00 WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET $0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66

formula_2002

10-12-2021 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2759872)

11/3 exacta $1 win paid $4.60 at the track
my total bet was $17.66 the return $33.35 (bet sizt to two decimial places was $7.29)

these plays win appox 66% of the time
the minumum average $1 must be 1/.66 = $1.52 to break even
this play returned $33.53/ $17.66 = $1.898
in a 93 race sample that average return was $1.513.

there are 17 races where the play should not be made, then the average return for the remaing races increases to $1.59 at the same win percentage of 66%.

note: with this newly designed play there are but a few races where not only the favorite is eliminated, but 1 additional horse is also eliminated

formula_2002

10-13-2021 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2759943)

Code:

Parx Racing* Race 4 0 0.00 WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Parx Racing* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET $12 $0 $5 $19 $0 $1 $9 $22 $123 $13 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $208.01

rev

9 wins total bet $208, returned $217

formula_2002

10-13-2021 02:49 PM

Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race

formula_2002

10-13-2021 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2759950)

Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race

fav #5 ran at 1/5 and won

formula_2002

10-13-2021 07:11 PM

Code:

Charles Town* Race 1 0 0.00 WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Charles Town* Race 1 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET $0 $85 $0 $64 $5 $87 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $240.53

formula_2002

10-13-2021 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2759977)

#2 wins

$240 bet
$347 returned

formula_2002

10-14-2021 01:07 PM

Yestreday, i only posted those races where the total race bet size was >=$200.
all three plays won.;)

why only those races? Glad you asked.

in a small 119 Race sample, 63% of the picks won, 54% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $1.07.

sorting those 119 races on race bet size, it was determined that 32 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 72% winners, 83% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.25 .

would it not be grand it that continued!!

formula_2002

10-14-2021 01:11 PM

Code:

Belmont Park* Race 2 0 0.00 WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 2 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET $108 $110 $0 $1 $0 $8 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $226.42

formula_2002

10-14-2021 02:18 PM

Code:

Belmont Park* Race 4 0 0.00 WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Belmont Park* Race 4 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET $0 $105 $0 $94 $42 $0 $5 $2 $44 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $292.54

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