Hey Dave
 

When I come to Reno for a weekend can I hang with you? :cool:

Keilan,

<G>

Dave

Really. Thank you.

I happen to trade in the Guidant crowd, and am curious why you think selling 26.5 vol in that line is better than selling 35 vol in the 60 line.

Well guys, I'm kind of bored just sitting here burning $50 bills (they make a blue and green flame BTW) but I do have a pretty interesting story to tell regarding what happened to me this morning.

I was on a date with Jennifer Anniston (I'm her post-Brad Pitt rebound) and we had a really great time. After that, I went with my friend CJ (he posts here I think!) to the circus. At the circus, they shot me out of a cannon. It shot me so far I landed in the Ocean. I surfed home on the back of a Great White Shark. Pretty cool time.

You guys would flip out if you saw this really cool Trident sub I bought from my home-boy Dick Cheney yesterday! Really great price! It only cost $230 million. Damn, it's nice to have friends in high places!

Well anyway guys---I'll catch you later---I'm about to go for a ride on my pet unicorn. That's right, I have my own stable of unicorn's! 5 years ago, I challenged my good friend Shiek Mohhammed to a match-race. His star Dubai Millennium against my fastest unicorn Smoke Horn. Winner take all---$10 million pot going 9 furlongs at Nad Al Sheba. He flew in Dettori for the mount, I decided to use Andy Serling as my jockey. After a shoulder-to-shoulder stretch battle--Smoke Horn drew off from the great Godolphin star in the final 100 yards. I was over-the-moon about the result of the race. But, Smoke Horn was subsequently DQ'ed from victory when it was discovered, by UAE stewards, that his jockey tested postive for Clembuteral.

SERIOUSLY though, I can accept what you are saying PA---that some people could possibly be doing a lot better than I am. I just would prefer that they establish the fact that they are vastly superior horse players---by producing helpful or impressive posts in threads--and not by telling people how much money they've made this year. I don't know though---maybe I'm just a jealous person---but I think I'm someone who just doesn't believe anything until I see strong indications that I feel validate whatever is in question.

Little Guy, please excuse me but I'm not certain that I understand your question. I simply sold the GDT Jan 65 Puts because of three reasons, the BSX 72 tender, the fact that JNJ will probaly counter-offer in the high 60s(all cash) & the fact that GDT as a stand alone is a major earnings driver in years to come.

Also, JNJ desperately needs GDT. So I look for a protracted bidding-war. Strategy is to buy-back the 65s & rollout to the 70s in early Jan.

Hope this helps.

Well, at least this guy discussed the rebate, which obviously was the reason for most of his so-called profits. I loved the exactness of $168,201 by the way.

Hey, there are plenty of guys out there making that much and more at the track. Fortunately they aren't making boastful claims on the internet. I'm sure some of them actually do post in chat rooms and I highly doubt they actually feel a need for cyberspace reinforcement. Anyone who doesn't believe there are people making a real living at this game, especially since the advent of rebates, hasn't been around or are kidding themselves.

On the other hand, I'm a skeptic, and tend to side with DrugS, as I find these boastful claims on the internet to be slightly more unreliable than, apparantly, most others do. But, judging by the responses here, and even from some I respect, I guess DrugS and I are in the minority....not that that's such a bad thing, especially when it comes to betting horses.

As an option trader, if you sold the Jan 65 puts, and a bidding war ensued, you would get " smushed ".

I put 21k - 30k. I was petty banged up the beginning of the year (laid up) and took 1k for a base and played wildly. I really didn't care if I lost, but I had to do something considering I was housebound. But I did something I never did, played tons of exactas and tris from Feb to June (yes, the first week I hit for over 3k, helped me play much longer), which is not 'how' I bet. Made close to 30k by June. Was I lucky, you bet! . Then I started to walk again and with the good weather, wasn't around much. Played a little during July (lost 2.5k), then just about stopped most of the rest of the year. August (DMar - Sar) are usually a killer for me, and have only just started playing again. Hopefully come Jan, again I will jump right in. The guys in the warroom can atest to this, the first part of the year. Hate to bring melman into, by name, but I used to tell him when I would hit certain milestones. (say hit 10k, up 15k etc.)

Now this is what I learned betting crazy like that ( to me anyway)

1) I 'didn't care'. Beleive me, I didn't, was lucky to be around.
2) Was not stressed at all making bets. If I ran out of the grand, I was done. Bank was to have something to do instead of wasting away doing nothing in the house.
3) Still did my selections the way I normally do. Some told me it wasn't just luck, I had to pick the horses to come in period.
4) I think I did well because I had no stress betting. Beleive me, that was a feeling I rarely had when wagering! Now I'm back to simple w/p bets and some exotic spots, my usual. I would never probably get that feeling again.(struggling right now whith them)

Thanks for the explanation Dave....to have the Midas touch would be wonderful. I remember reading some of his posts where Mr. Schmidt would change his selection process and keep winning. I assumed it was something in his thought process and/or understanding of risk analysis pertaining to his method that helped him switch so succesfully. Haven't been able to get my brain there, maybe never will but it's been been a fun (and frustrating) ride trying to get there.

Drugs
 

I don't need no clembuteral to outride that Dettori guy.

DrugS
 

I'm sure you had a time with your adventures. i do remember subs being sold by the Russians; I do know more sharks have been seen lately near shores. And a few years ago Ringling Brothers circus' main attraction that year was a large white goat that grew a real single horn out of the middle of its forehead.
So why should I not believe that at least some of your adventures were adapted from real events?
From Peta-"
On November 21, 1998 The Calgary Herald reported that the goat Ringling featured in 1980 as a "unicorn" was purchased from serial killer Leonard Thomas Lake. Lake abducted, tortured, raped, and murdered women before committing suicide when he was finally arrested in 1985. The "unicorn" was actually a mutilated goat whose horns had been manipulated to grow in the center of the animal's forehead."

Little Guy, if indeed an outright bidding war develops GDT would move substancially higher. In effect, the Put options I sold would expire worthless & I would keep 100% of the premium or about $1,200.

I understand what you are saying but that's not how things work in options trading.

Truth be told, if you really believe that you would be FAR better off buying the stock. You would participate more on the upside and your risk would hardly be significantly worse on the downside.

Sorry, I didn't want this discussion to deviate into an options seminar. I just couldn't pass up the coincidence that of all the options out there you picked one I trade.

I'm not going to sit here and say I believe this guy or that he's a liar. I have known a few professional horseplayers so I know it can be done. However, there did seem to be several possible red flags. Let's take another look:

1. As quoted earlier, the exactness of the profit number. I suppose this wouldn't be a huge stretch, if the person is really anal. There's others on here who are ahead for the year but could any of us say to the exact dollar? Yeah, if I looked it up on Excel but I certainly couldn't quote it off the top of my head.

2. Realistically, the rebate should not be considered part of the ROI. There's amount invested; amount returned; net profit/loss. The rebate should be treated separately.

3. The biggest red flag is saying "he didn't know if this could be done and he'd never bet offshore prior to August". Yet, immediately he goes into firing 100K thru the windows a month. Are there people who bet that? Sure. Are there people who aren't sure they can turn a profit betting that much? Not unless they've got a fortune to burn. It takes a while to gradually build up to wagering at that level. I find it highly unlikely somebody could start out at that level.....unless they were already rich. And if they were already rich, they'd probably lack the drive and desire to do all the paperwork it takes to beat the game.

4. "Beaten the game every week since August". That's about 19 weeks. I find it almost impossible to believe that somebody could win 19 weeks in a row. Race betting isn't like that; you have some big weeks and some slumps and when the dust clears at the end of the year, hopefully you are on the positive side of the ledger. If one had beaten the races for 19 consecutive weeks using exotic wagering exclusively, they'd likely have a far higher ROI than the low 20s.

To put that into perspective, IMO beating the races 19 weeks in a row would be more impressive than the sporting streaks of Ripken, Dimaggio and Favre.

Valuist
 

Believe me, I'm with you on almost everything you just said, but I have a serious disagreement with all the ROI discussions when it comes to being a professional/successful horseplayer. The name of the game is making money through playing horses, not delineating what return you get on every dollar bet, and if you get a rebate, and this subsequently increases your bottom line ( which it obviously will ), it all falls into the same box entitled " winnings ".

If I bet $250,000 throught the windows and make $25K, but didn't get a rebate, while another player made the same $25K, but got an 8% rebate, I am not " smarter " or " better " than him because my non-rebate ROI is higher....I am a schmuck because I could have and should have made an additional $20K by getting a rebate.