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-   -   Justify (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143394)

jocko699 02-18-2018 04:11 PM

Justify
 
I guess Baffert's firster could be worth the 500k. Scat Daddy out of a Ghostzapper mare goes 121 and 4 first out and looked like he wanted more distance.

GMB@BP 02-18-2018 04:55 PM

Yea...Looks like DVD has taken over as Bafferts main rider.

cj 02-18-2018 05:00 PM

Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.

GMB@BP 02-18-2018 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2278783)
Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.

definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.

cj 02-18-2018 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2278990)
definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.

It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.

cj 02-19-2018 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2279019)
It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.

131, with a couple points added to final time of 129 for pace.

Tom 02-19-2018 10:50 AM

Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:

GMB@BP 02-19-2018 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2279092)
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here? :eek:

The moon...thats like what West Coast got in the travers, and is already the fastest figure run by any 3yo this year.

dasch 02-19-2018 02:28 PM

I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5

cj 02-19-2018 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasch (Post 2279231)
I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5

How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.

Robert Fischer 02-19-2018 04:39 PM

Thought the Beyer seemed a little lower than I thought the performance warranted. I could be wrong. Only recently started incorporating Beyers (half for the Beyers' opinion and half to know what the public is seeing). Seems to almost be an 'initiation period' for most new horses, where their first Beyer (or two) is a little lower than the performance seemed to warrant, and then they jump up a little more dramatically than their visual improvement seems to show in subsequent starts. Eventually it seems to find it's level.

Was a little surprised that this Beyer wasn't a 115 or so. I understand that the Beyers have to scale to the complete order of finishers, so it may have put the runner up a little too high.

GMB@BP 02-19-2018 04:49 PM

Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.

cj 02-19-2018 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2279361)
Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.

Sometimes these kinds of winners look great but the clock isn't anything special. Sometimes the race is fast but horses doesn't look that great. This guy had both IMO...fast and looked fabulous.

big frank 02-19-2018 09:48 PM

Justify
 
Best 3yo i have seen so far !

dasch 02-19-2018 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2279329)
How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.

I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.


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