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-   -   Melbourne Cup 2023 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173146)

PhantomOnTour 10-31-2022 02:06 PM

Melbourne Cup 2023
 
First post at Flemington is 645pm Central time tonight with the big race scheduled for 11pm Central.

Going to key on Gold Trip first and second in exactas with about 5-6 other runners, including Deauville Legend, Montefilia, Lunar Flare & maybe Realm Of Flowers (who gets in at 110lbs and likes soft ground).
Deauville Legend is unproven over soft/heavy ground but has been 1st or 2nd in six of his seven lifetime starts. Maybe he lacks the seasoning to win this...???
Weather reports say turf will surely be less than good, so look for runners who like it soft to heavy.
Gold Trip is only 1-15 lifetime but is consistently in the money. Got nailed at the wire in the Caulfield Cup two back and had nowhere to go in the lane in the Cox Plate last out. Jock basically wrapped him up.
Hoping he gets a clear run at decent odds tonight.

I love this race - good luck, and who ya' got??

Michael 10-31-2022 04:02 PM

Gave the race a superficial "once over" this morning to come up with contenders.

:1::2::4::8::12:

For me, the value plays on top are the :1: & the :12: to win.
I typcially don't bet two entries and if you're going with the :1: Phantom I'm gonna play the :12: to win :popcorn: No fancy exotics for me.

Good Luck Everyone

Onesome 10-31-2022 06:01 PM

:4: / :1::19: / :2::10::12: for me.

Think the fav is way overbet here and the placing of El Bodegon in the Cox Plate 10 days ago didn't help.

CheckMark 10-31-2022 07:00 PM

Here is my take on this year's Melbourne Cup 2022!

FINAL RATINGS
:6: 113- Has Buick in irons but hoping field size does not scare him here
:19: 108- Weight advantage and can be used to beat the heavyweights
:3: 74- Will be involved early and if stamina is right then can hold on late-stage
:8: 46- Has drawn well and is amongst the likely favourites in this race

Good luck to everyone!

Michael 10-31-2022 07:40 PM

Current Odds
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...2-11-01/818511

Post scratches - It's a 22 horse field and the general public bets the :8: down to 5/2. Talk about the madness of crowds!

woodbinepmi 10-31-2022 07:47 PM

As you can see the track is SOFT today, Melbourne has been dealing with a lot of rain of late.

woodbinepmi 10-31-2022 07:53 PM

PP's for the races (they are from the HKJC, so the last run race is at the bottom)

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...ter_s2_all.pdf

woodbinepmi 10-31-2022 09:30 PM

Well, the rain has arrived.

lamboguy 10-31-2022 10:47 PM

there doesn't seem to be much money in the North American pools even for this big night. there was a prior race that only had $23,000 total in the wps pools.

PhantomOnTour 10-31-2022 11:21 PM

The play:

Ex
:4::8::19: w :1:

Ex
:1: w :2::4::6::8::17::19:

Win
:1::19:

Immortal6 10-31-2022 11:35 PM

:1::3::4::8: ex box

Add :10: and 23 under in a tri

wisconsin 10-31-2022 11:51 PM

:8: w/ :1::4::6::9::13: 22 and 24 w/ :1::4::6::9::12::13::14::19: 22 and 24

:9::13: and 22 for bomb win fun bets

:1::8::9::13: exacta box

Cheap entertainment in a wide open event.

PhantomOnTour 11-01-2022 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour (Post 2838692)
The play:

Ex
:4::8::19: w :1:

Ex
:1: w :2::4::6::8::17::19:

Win
:1::19:

"I love it when a plan comes together"
-George Peppard from The A-Team

Finished 1-17

Onesome 11-01-2022 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour (Post 2838692)
The play:

Ex
:4::8::19: w :1:

Ex
:1: w :2::4::6::8::17::19:

Win
:1::19:

Enjoy your chicken dinner.

Crazy race, aggressive moves early mid and late and on the soft turf the field were spread wide apart.

~650-1 ex. This is why you play international racing, forget this American crap these days with its 5 horse fields.

JustRalph 11-01-2022 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour (Post 2838698)
"I love it when a plan comes together"
-George Peppard from The A-Team

Finished 1-17

Nice call. Hell of a race!

50 yds more the :2::2: upsets em

Couldn’t believe his close in the last 50 yds


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