What's your plan to win?
 

First question, what are you a hunter or a gatherer? Gatherers use known systems or purchase software, and try to squeeze out a profit by not reinventing the game but by seeking out hidden patterns and/or better statistical understandings. Scenario players are a good example of this group. This is by far the largest group.

Hunters, on the other hand, say nuts to the common understanding of the game and will seek their own formulas of methods. They believe that nobody is going to give away or sell the knowledge needed to profit. These are guys like Pittsburgh Philly who invent their own handicapping ideas or methods.

Is it important that you need to know who your are in the game? I doubt it. The game is fun and that's it biggest reward. But what I find interesting are the stat guys and the programmers who think they are hunters while along they are gatherers. It sets the tone within many who post about handicapping. I'm not saying that gatherers can't be winners or hunters are better. This is all a matter of one's temperament.

Sorry about not editing the OP. I had to run to work. Some of us here still have day jobs.

Back On the topic: For me, know thyself has always paid off. I am a hunter. Recently, I was offered free software and coaching valued around $2,500 from a software vendor and a person that I much admire. Had I accepted the offer I would have gone against my nature. Moments like these force one to think what's it all about.

It sounds to me as if there's some overlap in your definitions.

I employ analysis of patterns in statistical data, which would appear to characterize me as a gatherer, according to your terminology.

However, I then use that analysis to develop my own conclusions about a race field, specifically from the standpoint of arriving at a winning probability and wagering-value assessment for any particular horse or exotic combination in the race (which differs from what seems to me to be the more prevalent technique of narrowing a field down to a single selection through a process of elimination), and which would seem to make me a hunter.

i am going to give you the best way to win at this game.

1. handicap your races ahead of time and rate your picks 1-5

2. watch handicapping shows and write down the numbers that the handicapper picks

3. compare the handicapper's picks to yours, the first one of your picks that is not the handicapper's is the horse to play.


the better the television handicapper is the more money you will make.

If being a "hunter" means believing that "nobody is going to give away or sell the knowledge to profit"...then I am a hunter.

It may just be OCD.

Interesting. I especially like your #1. It goes along the line of figuring out your best bet.

in this game you can play every horse to win that a 40% trainer puts out on the track and go broke, yet you can play every horse that a 4% trainer puts on the track and double your money or more in that same time span.

We all use some common info. No man is an island. The big difference for me is if your extrapolating your conclusion from prefigured class or speed or pace or connections or whatever figs or are you making your own figs? Statistics is an extrapolation of the data. I know a good statistian would extra better numbers from my methods than I could.

That's would be my guess too.

That too.

Trainers try to mask their numbers. Many big time trainers have assistant trainers. When they see fit for their purposes, they'll post the trainer as the assistant trainer.

Then why would anyone ever purchase a book about handicapping?

Why would anyone ever join a forum to discuss horse racing ideas?

Why would you bother post here at all?

Dave,

I made it clear in the OP that neither method has a handle on winning. We all use common info and share common ideas. The difference comes on how we extrapolate. Do we create new systems and/or supersede standard figures, hunters. Or do we find our answer by modifying the given data or better interpreting the data with better statistics or SQLs or angles through gathering.