Mohawk Million Night Sept 26
 

Race 1 #3 HP Napoleon W/p Double 3 with 1


Race 2 #1 Bronsons Delight w/p


Race 5 #5 Notorious Pink w/p


Race 6 #6 Royal Renegade W/p


Race 7 #1 Treacherous Reign W/p Ex box 1/3


Race 9 #4 Born A Dragon W/p Best bet


Race 12 #1 Foot Soldier w/p


Goodluck to all

Mohawk hi-5 race 12
 

$.20 hi-5 race 12 with mandatory payout
:6::7:
:1::6::7::10::11:
:1::6::7::10::11:
:1::6::7::10::11:
ALL
$67.20 ticket

Goodluck Lucky.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Going to pass on the pick 5 as it will be too pricey to play as I would like to.
Going to play and early pick 3 starting in race 1 as follows.

$2 pick 3 1-6 w 1-3-4-9 w 6 that is a $16 ticket
$.80 pick 3 2-3-5 w 1-3-4-9 w 6 that is a $9.60 play

total play for the first pick 3 is $25.60

Be back later as I finish capping.

For those playig the pick 5 my comments

1) 1-6 look best and 2-3-5 fill out the contenders.

2) I assume the 9 will be heavily bet as he is unbeaten, beaten a couple of good looking horses and may very well crush these. Not sold however, especially from the 9 hole. Think the 1-3-4 have a legit shot to beat him, we will find out.

3) Like Born to Fire in here. 1 scares me some, 3, if and this is a big if he fires is obviously a big danger, the 9 I have been killed on as he gets troubled trips week after week and then last week, though I give him a decent figure, visually I was very unimpressed. Seems to be headed the wrong direction. Really do not like the rest.

4) One of those race where virtually the whole field has a shot, looks like an all race too me. Even having trouble determining who I like best.

5) 3-4 are the obvious favorites 2-5-6-10 round out the contenders, we will find out, if I am structuring tickets I am using 3-4 mainly and 2-5-6-10 on a cover/backup play.

Good luck, be back later after I do some more capping.

Posting live




Race 4 #10 w/p

Race #6
Exacta box 3,10

Late pick 4

.20 cent place

9)3-6-10
10)3-4-7-9-10
11)2-6
12)1-5-6-7-10-11

$36 play

coming back with a 40 cent pick 4

9)3-6-10
10)3
11)2-6
12)1-5-6-7-10-11


$14.40 play

$50.40 total play


By the way for those playing the mandatory payout high 5 in last

1-5-6-7-10-11 look best to me, 9 has a shot but stuck in the 9 hole, 2-3-4-8, I cant really see. Don't really have much of an opinion on who is best. The better horses are stuck in the worst post positions making them fairly equal from a chance to win standpoint imo. Maybe the crowd has a better idea than I do. They seem to get it right every race almost :) (as I typed this and hit submit, I look and see 1/5 shot Abuckabett Hanover went down and a 35-1 shot of all horses wins the race- so much for that theory).

Race 1 #3 HP Napoleon W/p Double 3 with 1 was out


Race 2 #1 Bronsons Delight w/p was out


Race 5 #5 Notorious Pink w/p 2nd paid 3.40 to place


Race 6 #6 Royal Renegade W/p 2nd at 16-1 paid 9.50 to place


Race 7 #1 Treacherous Reign W/p Ex box 1/3 was 4th


Race 9 #4 Born A Dragon W/p Best bet 2nd at 19-1 paid 9.80 to place


Race 12 #1 Foot Soldier w/p Won paid 6.90-3.80

Small profit, not bad at all:ThmbUp:

Sea Biscuit, just some unsolicited advice to you(nice capping by the way-unfortunately I bet Bronson's Delight so that is why he lost:)), and you may already do this, but when betting longhots (maybe 10-1 +) and playing into odds on (below even money) favorites (Royal Renegade and Born a Dragon both finished 2nd to odds on favorites, it is not wise to bet solely win/place. I am confident if you check your results, you will find that your place performance suffers in races where there are odds on favorites. The reason is odds on favorites on this circuit (probably on just about all circuits but my data is on this circuit) do really well (They are going to win at least 50% of the time and probably be 2nd at least 20% of the time, obviously the lower their odds the more likely they win). There are 2 approaches. One is just make your win place bet and just make an extra box bet with the chalk(maybe 80/20 with the chalk on top. So if you bet 20 wp on a horse bet like a 10 exacta chalk over your horse and $3 exacta with your horse over the chalk. If your horse comes 1/2 without the chalk you get the benefit of a much bigger place payoff and if your horse comes in with the the chalk instead of making $55 and $58 on a $40 bets, yesterday the extra $13 in each race would have gotten you back another $248.50 and 174.00 on your 2 longshots. Even though you are raising your outlay on these bets by using this strategy, I don't even think you are increasing your bankroll by much because of the hedge nature of this strategy. Once they get to 1-1 and up I have found that the chalks aren't nearly as deadly. Doesn't mean you can't use this strategy to a lesser degree, but I think you need to use this strategy against odds on favorites on this circuit.

The 2nd strategy, would be to bet to win only, and use exactas with your horse to come 2nd. So instead of $20 to place maybe a $12 exacta with the favorite over your horse and $8 worth of other exactas with other contenders over your horse. The drawback with this strategy is that if your horse wins you cost yourself the place money and if he happens to come 2nd to a non contender you cost yourself big. So if you are comfortable with win/place betting the first approach would likely be the better approach for you and may be the better approach period as I think about it. I typically use the 2nd strategy, but lately I am thinking the other approach is likely better and I think I am going to change up.

One other strategy I like for trifectas is a small Chalk/all/longshot, a bigger Chalk/ main contenders/longshot and a small main contenders/chalk/longhot in the trifecta. That way when your horse comes 3rd you are likely getting back some money. By the way the 4th ticket I would use would be redundant because of the exacta play, but Chalk/longshot/main contenders, but a lot of these will hit(in fact imo, your 2 seconds we talked about would have hit using these stategy based off of my opinion in those races).

By the way just updating my record for the year. Saturday bet $76 and got back a juicy $20.79. So a net -$55 on the night with $76 bet. Lost $24 on $24 the night before. Year to date record is now:

$1490 bet($1985 Returned-$1646 omitting mistake)

Poindexter All good points. I appreciate your input.


SB

I had always wanted to ask you this. What is a omitting mistake?

Just getting back to you on this as I haven't been near a computer since I last posted. The mistake was that a few months back I posted a pick 5 play where I meant to single the 4(the odds on favorite) and on my post I singled the 3 who won at somewhere between 5-1 and 8-1 and that mistake was the difference between hitting and missing the pick 5. It was just a mistake in my post that worked out to my records benefit, but unless you played the mistake (and I didn't and I doubt anyone bets my plays blindly) it doesn't represent my performance. Thus I give two records, one including the mistake which is my actual record as posted and one omitting the mistake that represents my actual personal performance as I do bet every ticket I post.