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| Fred Mertz |
01-17-2018 11:11 AM |
The Importance of Lowering Takeout in Horse Betting
Quote:
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
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https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing. |
| AndyC |
01-17-2018 01:27 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262227)
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
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You will have to get a little deeper in to the how-to for a track to offer 11-10 or 12-10 to the bettors through a pari-mutuel system. With a PM system the tracks would have a vested interest in a favorite losing. If a favorite has 40% of the pool the vig would only be collected from the 60% losers. With a long shot having 5% of the pool the track would collect on 95% of the bets. There is no mechanism such as point spread movements to equalize the betting as there is in sports betting. |
| biggestal99 |
01-17-2018 02:44 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262227)
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
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Well Monmouth has reduced the vig to 12% on exchange bets, WPS.
when I cash on a chalk I pay 12% and no breakage. seems very civilized.
Of course most likely Monmouth will be the first racetrack also to take sports bets.
wonder what will hill will set the vig up at Monmouth.
Allan |
| DeltaLover |
01-17-2018 03:53 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262227)
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
|
The highlighted section of your posting is a huge self contradiction; if anything it opens the discussion about your definition of a "self-respecting horseplayer".. Very simply stated, the favorite becomes one because it is backed by the majority of the bettors who obviously are making straight bets on it. |
| dilanesp |
01-17-2018 05:59 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262227)
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
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Technically the takeout on a 11-10 vigorish sports bet is 1/21, or about 4.8 percent. Not 10 percent. |
| AndyC |
01-17-2018 06:07 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
(Post 2262362)
Technically the takeout on a 11-10 vigorish sports bet is 1/21, or about 4.8 percent. Not 10 percent.
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That was stated in the article, although 5% was used. The actual vig is 4.545%, or 1/22. |
| AltonKelsey |
01-17-2018 07:27 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
(Post 2262315)
The highlighted section of your posting is a huge self contradiction; if anything it opens the discussion about your definition of a "self-respecting horseplayer".. Very simply stated, the favorite becomes one because it is backed by the majority of the bettors who obviously are making straight bets on it.
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Like the old joke, no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded. |
| thaskalos |
01-17-2018 10:58 PM |
If sports-betting is offered at 12-10 after "legalization"...then it will be a worse gamble than horse racing is right now. An first glance the 10% takeout on sports-betting looks inviting, but there isn't enough "room for error" when there are only two betting sides to a wager...and the winning gambler is looking to capitalize on his competition's "mistakes". That's why the short fields that we currently see at the track are the anathema of the profit-seeking horseplayer. The shorter the field, the lesser the betting options...and the more unlikely our chances become of finding an "overlay" by capitalizing on our competition's mistakes.
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| dilanesp |
01-18-2018 03:28 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
(Post 2262487)
If sports-betting is offered at 12-10 after "legalization"...then it will be a worse gamble than horse racing is right now. An first glance the 10% takeout on sports-betting looks inviting, but there isn't enough "room for error" when there are only two betting sides to a wager...and the winning gambler is looking to capitalize on his competition's "mistakes". That's why the short fields that we currently see at the track are the anathema of the profit-seeking horseplayer. The shorter the field, the lesser the betting options...and the more unlikely our chances become of finding an "overlay" by capitalizing on our competition's mistakes.
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It is even worse than thar.
Nobody really beats sports long term even at 11 to 10, because there aren't any information asymmetries. It is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis in pure form. |
| jay68802 |
01-18-2018 04:04 AM |
And those guys in Vegas that set the spread, are pretty damn good.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
(Post 2262533)
It is even worse than thar.
Nobody really beats sports long term even at 11 to 10, because there aren't any information asymmetries. It is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis in pure form.
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You mean all those touts I hear on sports radio are lying? :lol::lol::lol: |
| thaskalos |
01-18-2018 12:01 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262227)
My column from New Year’s Day drew so much reaction I thought I would follow up on it. If you did not read it, I compared the mentality of a sports bettor with that of a horseplayer. A sports bettor is happy to bet into 11 to 10 odds. Meanwhile most self-respecting horseplayers will almost never make a straight bet on the favorite.
Many commented that I was comparing apples to oranges. That sports bettors are playing a side or a team, so it’s an “either or” bet. In horse racing, a favorite, depending on field size, may have to defeat as many as five to 11 other horses. That makes it a more daunting task.
[Snip]
Thesis:
I believe what horse racing will need to do is fight fire with fire. If legal sports betting is offered with a 10 percent hold of 12 to 10, then the horse racing industry should reduce takeout on win, place and show betting also to 10 percent.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...-horse-betting
Richard Eng is the author of “Betting on Horse Racing for Dummies,” an introductory book for newcomers to the sport of horse racing.
|
Does this post imply that the poster Fred Mertz is Richard Eng, in real life? |
| Fred Mertz |
01-18-2018 12:15 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
(Post 2262637)
Does this post imply that the poster Fred Mertz is Richard Eng, in real life?
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Not at all. I included what I believe to be appropriate excerpts and attribution to the author on this never-ending topic. |
| thaskalos |
01-18-2018 12:48 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
(Post 2262645)
Not at all. I included what I believe to be appropriate excerpts and attribution to the author on this never-ending topic.
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Sorry. When you began your initial post here with My column from New Year's Day...I honestly thought that you were the author of the piece. |
| green80 |
01-18-2018 02:05 PM |
Somebody may have some insight on this, with all the expenses a track has, could they show a profit reducing the take to 10%? 4.5%? Keep in mind that the track puts up a large percentage of the purse money, pays taxes on the money wagered, and has overhead like any business. Maybe someone in the know can tell us at what take % the track breaks even, then we could have a discussion about the take. Sure everybody wants a better deal, a lower take but what is realistic?
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