Which race to bet on
 

I've been working for about 8 months on handicapping races. So far I have decided that the bet I like is the Trifecta. I'm now trying to find races that I think the Trifecta will pay out more than others and if I can find that I feel pretty good about my handicapping. Any thoughts?

I recommend looking at field sizes of 9 or more, with a morning line favorite of 3-1 or higher...that is a decent way of weeding out races where the TRI is likely to pay less than you desire IMO...

thanks
 

Yes I know that and was trying to get maybe a different angle, and then there are some 5 or 6 horse races that pay out big

If I had known, I wouldn't have offered my opinion. My apologies...carry on

Hey PaceMaker

You might want to think about races on the Turf as opposed to Dirt

Right now, as of yesterday the average win payout on the Dirt at Belmont is $9

However, the average payout on the Turf is $14.70 that's almost a $6 difference in win payouts so the Trifectas are much higher right now on the Turf than the Dirt at Belmont

So if you're looking to score, at least at Belmont, you might want to try your luck on the Turf

I didn't realize there was a $123 winner on the Turf at Belmont on opening day which exaggerates the average

When you subtract that win payout the average win price is $11.50 still almost $3 more than on the Dirt so it still might be worth a shot

thanks
 

I appreciate your input!

During the betting stage, horse-betting resembles golf: You keep a bunch of different clubs in your bag...and you let the HOLE determine which club to use. Don't try to fit the race to the bet. Fit the bet to the race.

Betting on overlays is the ONLY way to make money. It's impossible otherwise.

Every long term winning player is betting on overlays. Whether they know it or not.

I have always made my own odds line and I have done so for many years as I feel it's the best way to find, and bet, on overlays.

I have never been a fan of using the racetrack's odds line as a gauge to determine what's an overlay or not. Because my betting is mostly at Parx I know this could be the reason I do it my way. The line maker at Parx is the absolute worst of his kind in the handicapping world.

I know there are also good track line makers but I still feel more comfortable with making my own line even when I play other tracks.

Good luck, PaceMaker, and try to learn how to make an odds line, if you don't already know. PA Mike gave you good advice.

You should prefer betting on races where the crowd will have a large enough chance to be misleaded by ABC handicapping!

The best bets in this game occur, when price is inflated by some basic handicapping factor that the crowd overestimates. A three year old against olders early in the year, a filly against colts, a maiden against stakes winners or a horse coming from an extended layoff, are all factors representative of some potential excellent selections. Your job is to discover them and have the courage to heavily bet against the crowd.


Some of the things you need:

• Understand how the crowd makes betting decisions.
• Develop a custom speed and pace figure methodology.
• Discover the patterns that tend to confuse the crowd and take advantage of them.
• Deep understanding of how mutual betting works and how to optimize the transformation of opinions to bets.
• An up to date database containing all the races ran in Northern America.
• Sufficient machine learning skills to create custom figures and automated detect crowd errors and mine your databases in many other ways as well.
• Study the related literature (not because you will learn to beat the game from it but because you need to know the fallacious approaches that are advertised there and followed by the crowd).
• Have enough bankroll to sustain long losing streaks.

People are always chasing the elusive "value".

For a handicapper that's just starting out. I suggest you make bets where YOU can control "value"

The Trifecta pool will always cost you somewhere around $23.00 for every $100.00 you bet.

The Win pool is only going to charge you $15.00.

Especially for someone just starting you should want to make as many bets as you can.

Betting Tri's you could be 3 or $400 in before you ever hit one. While simply trying to pick a winner is more likely to prevent long dry spells and allow you to gain much needed experience.

Despite all the.............???
 

Despite all the long winded answers............what everyone is trying to say it's that BET the race where you have some kind of advantage over the general public.

Excellent advice!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: