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-   -   exacta plays that, in the long run, outperform win plays (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142896)

formula_2002 01-21-2018 08:24 AM

exacta plays that, in the long run, outperform win plays
 
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".

formula_2002 01-21-2018 09:11 AM

Code:

        "UK Fontwell
Race
3

Post
9:10

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,428"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        4        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        39
2ND HORSE        2        39
2ND HORSE        3        13
2ND HORSE        4        ----
2ND HORSE        5        9
2ND HORSE        6        ----
2ND HORSE        7        ----
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00


georgetkingiv 01-21-2018 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2264083)
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT

I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.

THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.

IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.

THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.

IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.

THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".

:ThmbUp:

formula_2002 01-21-2018 10:25 AM

posted in error . deleted

formula_2002 01-21-2018 10:51 AM

Code:

        "IRE Thurles
Race
6

Post
10:50

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,602"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        8        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        29
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        9
2ND HORSE        4        26
2ND HORSE        5        10
2ND HORSE        6        ----
2ND HORSE        7        ----
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        4
2ND HORSE        10        22
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $2,638       
% win pool played played        91%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 12:54 PM

Code:

        "Aqueduct
Race
2

Post
12:50

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$52,481"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        3        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        3
2ND HORSE        2        19
2ND HORSE        3        ----
2ND HORSE        4        21
2ND HORSE        5        11
2ND HORSE        6        39
2ND HORSE        7        6
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $49,592       
% win pool played played        100%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 01:07 PM

Code:

        "Gulfstream Park
Race
3

Post
1:05

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,937"                       
        PGNO        BET SIZE               
FAVORITE        7        BET SIZE               
2ND HORSE        1        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        2        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        3        18        72.01        393.18
2ND HORSE        4        61        238.40        393.18
2ND HORSE        5        10        40.52        393.18
2ND HORSE        6        3        11.52        393.18
2ND HORSE        7        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        8        8        30.73        393.18
2ND HORSE        9        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        10        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        11        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        12        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        13        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        14        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        15        ----        0.00        393.18
2ND HORSE        16        ----        0.00        393.18
                100.00        393.18       
win pool        $21,157                       
% win pool played played        94%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 01:40 PM

Code:

        "Gulfstream Park
Race
4

Post
1:36

MTP
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$86,473"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        8        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        29
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        ----
2ND HORSE        4        ----
2ND HORSE        5        8
2ND HORSE        6        7
2ND HORSE        7        55
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $73,279       
% win pool played played        96%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 02:01 PM

Code:

        "Fair Grounds
Race
1

Post
2:00

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,843"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        5        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        ----
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        ----
2ND HORSE        4        75
2ND HORSE        5        ----
2ND HORSE        6        2
2ND HORSE        7        8
2ND HORSE        8        15
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $8,062       
% win pool played played        97%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 02:07 PM

Code:

        "Gulfstream Park
Race
5

Post
2:05

MTP
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,101"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        3        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        22
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        ----
2ND HORSE        4        11
2ND HORSE        5        33
2ND HORSE        6        24
2ND HORSE        7        10
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $37,986       
% win pool played played        96%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 02:25 PM

Code:

        "Aqueduct
Race
5

Post
2:24

MTP
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$122,377"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        2        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        22
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        12
2ND HORSE        4        16
2ND HORSE        5        6
2ND HORSE        6        ----
2ND HORSE        7        45
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $111,559       
% win pool played played        100%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 03:25 PM

Code:

        "Aqueduct
Race
7

Post
3:26

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$73,710"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        8        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        8
2ND HORSE        2        6
2ND HORSE        3        15
2ND HORSE        4        ----
2ND HORSE        5        31
2ND HORSE        6        ----
2ND HORSE        7        ----
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        34
2ND HORSE        10        7
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $64,681       
% win pool played played        92%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 03:36 PM

Code:

        "Tampa Bay Downs
Race
7

Post
3:35

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$24,724"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        8        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        ----
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        ----
2ND HORSE        4        ----
2ND HORSE        5        9
2ND HORSE        6        62
2ND HORSE        7        10
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        5
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        15
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $16,375       
% win pool played played        91%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 04:20 PM

Code:

        "Tampa Bay Downs
Race
8

Post
4:17

MTP
0

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,801"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        4        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        ----
2ND HORSE        2        ----
2ND HORSE        3        23
2ND HORSE        4        ----
2ND HORSE        5        ----
2ND HORSE        6        12
2ND HORSE        7        10
2ND HORSE        8        8
2ND HORSE        9        47
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $24,386       
% win pool played played        89%


formula_2002 01-21-2018 05:36 PM

Code:

        "Santa Anita Park
Race
5

Post
5:36

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,970"       
        PGNO        BET SIZE
FAVORITE        6        BET SIZE
2ND HORSE        1        6
2ND HORSE        2        76
2ND HORSE        3        7
2ND HORSE        4        11
2ND HORSE        5        ----
2ND HORSE        6        ----
2ND HORSE        7        ----
2ND HORSE        8        ----
2ND HORSE        9        ----
2ND HORSE        10        ----
2ND HORSE        11        ----
2ND HORSE        12        ----
2ND HORSE        13        ----
2ND HORSE        14        ----
2ND HORSE        15        ----
2ND HORSE        16        ----
                100.00
win pool        $68,062       
% win pool played played        97%



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