TimeformUS Derby and Oaks Points Races spreadsheet
 

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/s93TX95/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/PwwpgBP/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/rwbWqB0/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/vhT3wyx/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Thank you!Allways appreciate this to follow the derby trail.:ThmbUp:

I know the Gander is not part of the prep races but can you tell me what Barese ran in that race?

Thx

He ran a 103.

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/wRyRTcL/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/dmD1VYc/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/vjdrT4c/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/3FKP2t1/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/YB07JzS/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/WH6FgNg/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

No updates to Oaks this week, no points races. Next week there are no points races for the Oaks or Derby, so back in two weeks.

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/6y1GdyN/Derby.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/567614M/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/D4gQd8F/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Thanks CJ

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/jgFbdy0/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/P920SsZ/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/VLhGkgH/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/FDtJcJy/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Final one before the big races!

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/vwNLzmv/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/vLwN52k/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Thxs CJ for this great info.....

Question:

Out of the 2 highest races this month...Wood & SA Derby 4/9

Which horse had the most impressive race?


In the Wood , the winner came out of the rear to beat the pace horse...


In the SA Derby , winner won when pace horse collapses and finished last...


mike

I would say Taiba, it was faster and it was his second start. I also found the Wood figure difficult to make, possible it is a little slower. Very tough card.

But, that doesn't mean I want Taiba in the Derby. TBD.

:ThmbUp:

CJ. Will you be doing your Derby Array again this year? I know it’s extra work but I hope you do.

Definitely, plan to work on it this week! Next week at the latest and then I'll adjust if things change.

Great

I'm finally going to have some time to get to this tomorrow, promise!

This is with the current field, will adjust as needed until race day. It does not include the UAE Derby, but that race was so slow late there is no chance either of the entrants wouldn't be near the bottom of this chart.

https://i.ibb.co/fxv8pV6/Current-Field.png

Love it, and thank you.:ThmbUp:

On the Adj LF and LF Conv, I assume that is Adjusted Late Fraction and Late Fraction Conventional (actual time per say)?

Crazy to see Epicenter so low, but I'm not overly surprised.

That is actually only used for the Louisiana Derby since the finish times are for 3.5 furlongs, so I converted to 3 for comparability.

Thank you CJ

Epicenter 10th . That should help the prices if he finishes that way.

Will update with the actual field tomorrow.

Thank you very much for posting the summary, CJ. You da man!

I was just thinking after the PP draw yesterday, that Epicenter should have been the M/L favorite, but if I understand your numbers correctly, you have him ranked mid-pack. If he does run out of the gimmicks, the Churchill tote will get a workout on all those lit bulbs....

thx cj.....

is it possible to an average from all races for each horse?

My spreadsheet has the same top 4 (which is to be expected because of the final fractions) just a different order

Not this late in the game, busy week at DRF. :)

ok thx

Hey CJ,

Just finished my personal post-mortem review of the derby. Kind of wondering as a figure maker... what your thoughts are in regards to any of the preps and the figures that you gave them. Are you happy with all of the figs? did you over / under estimate any track variants? I ask mainly bc I used 3 different figs for this derby and certain horses came up when I used time form and beyers that I didn't land on when I used brisnet.

Specifically I had White Abbario as a contender for both timeform and DRF. Then, I eliminated mo-donegal when I used beyers, but really liked mo-donegal with timeform and brisnet. Just found it strange that Zandon had a 103 bris and a 111 bris for Mo Donegal. Obviously I'm asking out of respect for your hard work and not questioning your talent. (atm I think timeform is the best figs on the market)

What planted the seed in my mind to ask you... was Andy Beyer picked White Abarrio. (If I just used Beyers & timeform I had him as an overlay.)

i think the races or figs in question would be for the wood, any of the gulf stream park figs and I guess the bluegrass.

Ultimately I ended up keying off of Mo Donegal and I think I'm happy with my pick and my play.

You don't have to answer here.. but, thought it's a good topic for the podcast with David. I found the figs interesting for these preps.

Edit: and thank you btw for posting these derby updates in this thread every year.. Makes it fun to follow along.

First, I'm a little annoyed I didn't update the spreadsheet with Rich Strike. He was ranked 17th on Speed Figure, 4th on Last Fraction, and 8th overall. I'm traveling this week (in Philly for two NBA playoff games) and just didn't have the time.

As for the preps, nothing stuck out to me too much. Maybe the SoCal preps are a little high, but otherwise everything else fell in line. I hated the Florida preps and the Arkansas route, have been clear about that for a while. Not sure why you'd have White Abarrio as an overlay on TFUS, I didn't like him at all. I said on the podcast if I had to take one horse from that group it was Simplification.

I may have underrated Epicenter a little, but he fit, just thought he'd be overbet. I was pretty sure they winner was coming from SoCal, Kentucky, Louisiana or New York, but I never saw the actual winner at all. I admittedly was probably a little lazy since I ignored him as an AE all week, but I'm not going to be that guy to say I'd have liked him more than possible tri and super filler.

Appreciate the reply / insight.

I landed on White Abarrio as an overlay solely based off of a spreadsheet that I use to handicap. The spreadsheet is more or less just my own home-brew ability figures that highlighted White Abarrio was an overlay at 10/1 when I used timeform. (7/1 when I used beyer speed figures, and a sixth-man / non-contender using brisnet)

Then, I listened to Andy Beyer speak with Jay Privman on their annual drf webcast. He liked White Abarrio and toed the same line as you when speaking in regards to figure making on the day of the Wood Memorial. That his guy had a difficult time sussing out a track variant. I recall you saying that you were happy with the slightly higher figure that you gave Mo Donegal as compared to Beyer.

Beyer mentioned that he believed his own figures were selling White Abarrio short and that he likely ran a better race than his figures supported.

Anyway, I listen to your podcast twice a week and know you weren't hot on the the Florida preps. Just figured I'd ask how you felt after the fact of the race being ran. Thanks again :ThmbUp:

Post Derby version, fillies obviously done, will update after Preakness and Belmont.

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/7W6j3Ft/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/wKcz8Rq/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Post Preakness version, will update after the Belmont.

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/2qw13GN/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/wKcz8Rq/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)

Final version for 2022, see you next year!

Derby

https://i.ibb.co/HgBNbWW/Derby.png

Oaks

https://i.ibb.co/wKcz8Rq/Oaks.png

To see larger images, right click and open in a new tab.

Spreadsheet is attached in XLSX format, can also be viewed in Google at this link. (some formatting lost)