Smarty Jones Stakes PPs
 

not that interesting of a field...

agree; actually think the horses in race 9, MSW, has more potential and better bred horses

:8: Gray Attempt

:7: Bankit

:9: Jack Van Berg

Not to confident in this race, odds might change my mind.

:8:,:9: will try to go to the lead and Long Range Toddy might have to go as well and the short stretch could help. Don't have a good handle on this race. Super Steed couldn't be as bad as his last race in New Orleans-maybe he didn't like the gumbo.

few interesting SJ
 

superficial(just a glance at PPs) analysis:

Boldor - expensive 2yo purchase. Decent MSW win. Has an excuse and a good rival in only loss. Flashy works.

Super Steed - was sugar bowl a bad performance or did he chase a slow pace that held together? Has to 'break' today going 2 turns. Pace numbers strong enough that he can be a 'P'(stalker/closer) style and not an 'S'(deep closer) should they translate to the stretch out. Larry Jones.

Forloveofcountry - expensive 2yo. Experience at 2. Odds last race suggest that was a salty OC for 2yo. Can't tell on paper whether the favorites also 'fired'. Bris has him 7th in Prime Power but his class may actually be a strength. Good work at Hawthorne, then a good work over the Oaklawn track. Joe Bravo in to ride.

^^These may be right on, or completely wrong. Just a superficial glance.

Bankit - Thought he was best in sleepy hollow, and then he got a good trip and paid $12.40. Kind of a last-time-was-the-time horse for me in that regard. Even with the Springboard Mile race in between. Give me a big price. Not at a short price.

If a horse does not like "gumbo" he is a toss.:)

What I find interesting is the fact that the :9: horse Jack Van Berg is also entered on Saturday in an Allowance/Optional Claimer race. Let's see what they think of this horse and where they decide to run.

saw that; he still drew the 9 hole again

Scratches and that might put the :8: all alone on the front. Dangerous at Oaklawn.

As Jay said :8: looks to be controlling speed...how will he do at 2 turns? My guess is he is good enough to win, but the two I see having the best shot at passing him in the stretch are the :1: and :6:

Box all three in an exacta.

Gotta take a stab at the :6: anywhere near his ML. If he takes to firm dirt he will be dangerous.

:1: Long Range Toddy (E/P 8) - Colt is coming off two Remington stakes victories he had to work for. I thought the Clevor Trevor win through a hot pace was better of the pair. The final figures in those races leave some doubt.
:2: Sleepy Eyes Todd (S 4) - I think this bomber would fare better on grass. 4-wide in winning maiden voyage. Wouldn't be totally stunned if it spoiled the dime super but would probably need an absolute meltdown to do it.
:3: Super Steed (P 3) - This one has Raise A Native on top and Mr.P in the power hole. Solid trainer but downgrades in pilot here. I'd want for for the 9/2 ML.
:4: Six Shooter (P 5) - Respect the Tapit on top and Mr.P in the power hole. Also gets the Buckpasser-x. The horse simply hasn't shown much improvement over his many starts. Won the Big Drama but with an 85 Bris figure. Worthy of exotics play.
:5: Boldor (E 5) - Spendy horse with some odd breeding. Speightstown on top not a problem for this distance but don't like it much longer. Non-Phalaris damside and In Reality in tail female line. Needs to improve and recent work suggest the colt will do just that. Gets the Asmussen zapper. Decent play at 8-1 ML.
:6: Forloveofcountry (P 3) - Popped going from turf to dirt and nothing in breeding suggests it was a fluke. Fractions in the slop were decent resulting in 91 Bris figure. You get Jersey Joe and 12-1. Nice value play, in my opinion.
:7: Bankit (E/P 3) - Speightstown on top and the non-Phalaris Tiznow damsire line. Popinjay in tail female. Closed from dead last in Springboard and should have some pace to chase here. The 89 Bris figure was nothing special and might need to improve a few lengths to win here. Always respect Asmussen at OP. Can't toss but not jumping to the windows at what might be generous 7/2 ML.
:8: Gray Attempt (E 8) - This one along with the 9 are the early speed. Unfavorable setup fro outside draw if the 9 doesn't scratch. Respectable Bris figures sprinting but now must go an extra panel and a half. Can't toss but enough questions making 5/2 ML tough to swallow.
:9: Jack Van Berg (E 8) - Had a nice maiden breaker on Breeders Cup undercard then flopped in the slop, albeit a fairly hot pace. The 8 on his inside hampers the running style plus he's stretching out. Gotta pass from top spot today.

Tentative low confidence win bet on the :5:.

Negative Ghost Rider . . . the Pattern is Full
 

The winners of the Jerome, Sham and Lecomte:

1) Class of the field
2) Hadn’t raced in sixty days
3) Showed 6+ works
4) Among first three betting choices
5) Ranked 1st or 2nd in BRIS Prime Power
6) CD fit (2/3)

~

Average DI and CD for 8f: 2.92 0.68

~

Smarty Jones entrants fitting the early winning patterns:

BANKIT - DP = 2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58
260k - Broke his Mdn @ Sar @ 75k in a race Restricted to NY Breds; (3) Blacktype NY Restricted races in the FunnyCide, Bongard and Sleepy Hollow; (6) weeks off (6) works; returns w/2nd place finish in the 400kL Springboard in a new running style; (3) works @ OP, two sharp w/1 bullet – worked in company w/ Long Range Toddy; good RR; good CR; even speed figures with highest @ 98; appears to be the class of the field; expect improvement, no excuses; CD fits 9.5f.

FORLOVEOFCOUNTRY - DP = 3-11-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.65
300k - Broke his Mdn @ Dmr @ 60k T; 4th in the DelMar Juv Turf and 9th in the G3 Bourbon; switches to dirt with an easy win in OC75k; two months off w/(5) works two sharp w/1 bullet; below par figures, highest 91; positive jock switch; expect improvement; CD fits.

LONG RANGE TODDY - DP = 4-11-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.79
17.5k - Broke his Mdn @ 33k @ RP; comes back in the 100kL Clevor Trevor, wins; advances in the 400k L Springboard, wins/holds sway; (3) works @ OP, two sharp w/1 bullet - worked in company w/Bankit; good RR; good CR, but averages below Bankit; should be tough; CD fits 6.5f.


Interesting and perplexing race.

Asmussen trains Bankit and Long Range Toddy, looks like they worked in company. Judging by his running lines, Asmussen is trying to rate Bankit or control his speed. He was off almost two months, put in six works came back fresh and missed by a head; I figure his last race was a prep for this one. Long Range Toddy should be tough here, has the favored post, but appears outclassed.

“Listed stakes deserve the special attention of handicappers, since few racegoers are even aware this category of stakes exists, and listed winners can regularly throttle their open but unlisted counterparts. (Quinn, 2000)

Following the pattern . . .

:7:

:6:/:1:

Interesting observations. No trainer has won the race twice and the Zapper has none at all (bearing in mind there have only been 11 events).

I might box two of his shots :5:/:7:. This is a weak field. I think the Race 4 maiden at Gulf on the Pegasus undercard might have better horses.

I took another look @ the 5, Boldor, see he is another Asmussen entry, that makes it three if I didn't miss any. This is what I've got on him: 700k; possesses Dominant Classicity; CD suited for >12f; game first out w/ troubled start in last; jockey w/Trainer 41/64%; jockey w/Routes 22/50%; RR low; CR good; Speed figures low; hasn't raced in two months; (4) works, three sharp w/two bullets; likely worked in company w/Bankit on 5 Jan.

Judging from his works looks like the horse has some ability and can run w/ 1 and 7 and is likely to improve, but I figure he has some work to do yet. I see your angle here, good luck. :ThmbUp:

I haven't been following the Pegasus, think I'll take a look @ it . . .