Belmont Stakes - Lookin At Lee is the ONLY play here
 

I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown...:pound:

Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...

My value line:

:6: Lookin At Lee 2/1
:7: Irish War Cry 3/1

And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...:sleeping:

Irad Ortiz is a great fit.

Hard for Lanerie to come off, after that amazing ride in the Derby, but Irad is probably the best jock in NY for this specific horse, and he knows the trip by the back of his hand.

Other than the jockey angle, I can't use Lookin At Lee in the win, place, or show position.

One thing I've been thinking is that so many "wiseguys" now think that playing deeper closers in the Belmont is a bad value bet because less experienced players all think that closers will automatically love the 1 1/2 miles, they are probably no longer over bet. It may be true that some of the deeper closers flatten out going long, but it's also true that many speeds drop dead.

IMO, there's nothing wrong horses like Senior Investment, Multiplier, and Lookin At Lee if you think they can get 12F and the pace will be suitable (which it should be).

C'mon Mike, eating the chalk? We're talking about a race that, over its last 10 runnings, has only been won by the favorite once?(American Pharoah) And by the second favorite twice( Union Rags and Rags to Riches)> The rest have been double-digit odds.

We go through this every year. When I made the above statement last year, there was someone here who insisted that one can't use historical data in a horse race. Even though we have virtually the same trainers, same jockeys, same thoroughbred pedigree, same track, same owners, etc. and all of the best 3-year-olds have already burnt themselves out trying to win the K. Derby.

This individual insisted that Exagerrator was a stone cold lock. How did that work out?

This race is awful. And LAL isn't going to be the chalk.

2-1 would be a gift on LAL and he's going to go off higher than that.

This horse is going to win FOR FUN.

PA:

I can appreciate your line of reasoning on Lookin At Lee, and maybe Irish War Cry although it is difficult to determine which IWC will actually show up and whether or not he is going to like the added distance of the Belmont. :) That goes for almost all of the horses in here as well.

Senior Investment beat Lookin At Lee last time out in the Preakness and he seems to be blossoming more and more with each and every outing and Multiplier also endured some adversity in the form of traffic issues in his last outing. I am hoping that one of these two bring it home at a price... Good luck to you this weekend!! :)

Anybody like that horse coming out of the Peter Pan?

Mean? Something. He has a huge pace advantage :headbanger:

He might run off

Brisnet:
Sire Stats: AWD 7.4
Dam's Sire: AWD 7.2

Gotta give ya' credit for takin' a stand. Good luck.

:11:

Mike,

Best of luck. I have settled on Irish War Cry but am alive in the double also to Twisted Tom and Patch.

Safe race for all.

Lee and War Cry are the top 2 and the winner will depend on the pace. IWC's failure in the Derby can be explained by the fact that he had a bad trip, in the words of Beyer " a wide move into a hot pace". He has rebounded in the past in the Wood after a "poor" Fl. Derby and should do so again provided the Belmont pace is not crazy fast.
Lee, as a stone closer, benefited from the hot Derby pace and will need a hot pace again to repeat that performance. He may get this as the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a fast pace. He will also appreciate the distance.

As with many tactical distance races, the result will depend on pace and how the jocks adapt to it.

Without anything to go on except finishes and previous distances, I'll go with the :11: epicharis (4/1).

I don't think this race has ever been won by a foreign runner and his recorded work on 6/6 @ Bel is nothing to get excited about. But, someone spent a lot of money on him with big expectations (TC nominated).

if you like Lee
 

then you have to play Sr. Investment... fresher horse, who beat LEE last time out and much better price.

I wouldn't say the race is awful. From a wagering perspective, I see it as having solid wagering opportunities. Obviously you should see it as much if you feel LAL is a legit 2/1 chalk in this field.

As far as an historical perspective, yes, I can see this as being an awful rendition of the Belmont Stakes. Without thinking too much, I simply can't remember a worse field than this one in the last 20 to 30 years. However, we do have 12 horses likely to go to the gate. I'm perfectly fine with that. :):ThmbUp:

I'd be careful with backing Epicharis. While Japanese horses tend to be good distance horses, as shown by Lani's good finish in last years Belmont, I just don't see this horse being competitive here. Even if one is not a big fan of speed figures, one must consider that his best figure of 108 on the Timeform ratings is slower than the best of the entire rest of the field. Lookin at Lee ran a 118 in the Derby and Irish War Cry a 119 in the Wood. He would have to show considerable improvement to compete here.

What's also a negative is that he is lame in the right fore and has missed several days of training. Even if the hoof heals missing training before such a long race is problematic.

Of course if he does manage to win, you may hunt me down and shoot me. :)