Lecomte 2021 picks and longshot!
 

Hay guys, hay! Here's my picks for the Lecomte!


Thanks for watching and good luck!

Nice job on the video.

You know your racing.:ThmbUp:


Lecomte:
Looked like the post draw and first turn was very important, with the :1: saving ground, and the :10: burning some energy trying to get forward and wide.

Interesting race. It was more or less a merry-go-round race on a day with some strange fractions in the routes. I wonder if there was any wind.

could be. I'm interested in anything you know regarding the wind or dynamics.


I took at face-value. Sometimes these early preps have a couple standouts that lay over the field, and sometimes a few surprises jump up.
The :10: maybe looked a touch stronger than the :1: on paper. With both, seemingly a level above the competition.
- Did have some respect for Jaycee's longshot, as Dallas Stewart's horses have been finishing well in the stretch of late.

:10: ended up with a Tough enough post draw, that they were forced to decide to 'Go!' or 'Stalk', and they didn't want to 'rate' out of the gate and attempt to fit into a stalking position, but they also weren't quite the gate-speed to clear the field so quickly before the turn...
Not sure it made much difference, given the ease of the :1:'s break and control of the rail, effortlessly saving ground AND having the forward position.

Maybe if the :1: comes back as a chalk, in the next stakes, I'll put $2 against him?


Getting to be fun again, with these Derby points races.

I don't have any special insights into the wind.

I wasn't surprised Midnight Bourbon went for the lead from the rail, but even with some of the speed scratching I thought there was enough speed to keep it honest. Proxy had some speed. (he stalked). Regular Guy, Red and Wild, and Santa Cruiser had all shown some speed at times but didn't go this time.

Ultimately, I think the top 3 were better than the others, but the pace/flow probably wound up favoring Midnight Bourbon loose on the lead in a moderately slow pace.

Santa Cruiser has some speed. He wound up getting out of the gate about a length slow, then got squeezed a bit, and dropped far back. He was the only one besides the top 3 running late. If he gets out better next next, gets better position, and has a little more pace to run at, I'd expect him improve quite a bit. Though he may need a little softer than these to win.