Rebel Stakes
 

A large field is expected for the Rebel, which is expected to include Southern California-based Solomini for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Solomini, who will be making his 3-year-old debut, finished second in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 4 at Del Mar.

Baffert has won the Rebel a record six times (all since 2010), including the 2015 edition with future Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Zayat Stables, which campaigned American Pharoah, owns Solomini.

Locally based horses pointing for the Rebel include Combatant, Sporting Chance and Zing Zang, 2-3-5, respectively, in the $500,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 19, and Higher Power, a Jan. 13 allowance/optional claiming winner.
Combatant worked a half-mile in :51.60 over a fast track Sunday morning for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

High North, based at Oaklawn late last year before moving to Fair Grounds, will run in the Rebel, trainer Brad Cox said in a text message Sunday morning. Pryor, a dominant Feb. 19 maiden graduate, is under consideration for the Rebel, trainer Ron Moquett of Hot Springs said Sunday morning.

The Rebel will offer 85 points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile race is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 14.

http://www.oaklawn.com/news/2018/mar...sses-saturday/

Sporting Chance should be ready to go in his second start off the layoff. He ran against a strong pace in the Southwest.

Not sure if he can beat Solomini.

:1: Title Ready [ML – 15-1 – More Than Ready – Asmussen/Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-1-1 - $101,350] .

:2:Curlin’s Honor [ML – 6-1 – Curlin – Casse/Geroux – 2: 2-0-0 - $56,220]

:3: Solomini [ML – 5-2 – Curlin – Baffert/Prat – 4: 1-2-1 - $472,000]

:4: Magnum Moon [ML – 4-1 – Malibu Moon – Pletcher/L. Saez – 2: 2-0-0 - $37,800]

:5:Higher Power [ML – 20-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Von Hemel/Eramia – 3: 2-0-1 - $68,728]

:6: Pryor [ML – 30-1 – Paynter – Moquett/Albarado – 4: 1-0-1 - $54,886]

:7: Sporting Chance [ML – 3-1 – Tiznow – Lukas/J. Velazquez – 4: 2-1-1 - $319,140]

:8: High North [ML – 20-1 – Midnight Lute– Cox/G. Stevens – 5: 1-1-0 - $73,350]

:9: Zing Zang [ML – 20-1 – Tapit – Asmussen/Lanerie – 5: 1-0-0 - $49,845]

:10: Combatant [ML – 10-1 – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Santana, Jr. – 5: 1-3-0 - $248,550]

:11: Bode’s Maker [ML – 30-1 – Bodemeister – Milligan/Loveberry – 9: 1-2-1 - $67,272]

Did Saez hop off Sporting Chance to ride Magnum Moon? Curlin's Honor went for $1.5 million at the sales; Geroux must have came for a reason. Baffert owns this race, Prat in to ride. Asmussen w/3 in the field. Higher Power out of a Seattle Slew mare-don't see that everyday. Magnum Moon ran 1 40 yards in 1:39@TAM, equaled the best 3 year time at the distance. Combatant always right there w/leading rider aboard.

Interesting stat from horseracingnation:

Since 2000, the Rebel has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, five 3-year-old champions and two Horse of the Years. Rebel participants have an overall record of 50: 3-2-3 in the Run for the Roses.

I truly believe Solomini could very well be as good as Bolt and McKinzie....

He has already crossed the line in front of both. Has the figures to blow this field apart but there's often one or two that pop in these races. Title Ready might be one to hit the board for a price. He gets a red hot rail, Ortiz, and Asmussen's zapper. Also has Buckpasser-x. I'm skeptical he can win but I'll definitely play in the trifecta.

Difficult to disagree with anything in your post:ThmbUp:

The only thing against Title Ready in the Rebel is his running style, he'll likely be part of what should be a solid pace though I expect him run well.

If someone is looking to upset Solomini, Magnum Moon would appear as the most likely though there are a couple others in here who will will run new tops by lots imho

Title Ready has that Phipps breeding on the bottom-always a good sign. Ortiz will lower the odds, seems like an underlay

Just read the Paulick report picks Title Ready. Don't follow him closely but is this a good thing or bad thing?

Bennie, I do better when I pick my own losers and I will confess that I read too many "expert" opinions.

Pick your own winner. Solomini here for reasons unexplained...my method would freak you out.

Fred - I was not planning on using Paulicks selections. I was just curious as to whether his selections are a curse like so many other "experts". I have found certain "selectors" can lead to a automatic toss in my opinion. Not always wrong but more so than not. it is like when they feature a certain horse on the front of the DRF and sure enough that horse gets beat. Has saved me money many times.

This is an interesting race. Not sure which rider is the most aggressive, I think Sporting Chance has the most early speed but wont be suprised if others go.

I thought Combatant got a brilliant ride last time in a collapsing race and still lose, I feel like he will be overbet.

Sporting Chance was close to the wicked pace but was on the gold rail most of the race so I am mixed there.

Solomini is playing catch up in my opinion and at 3/2 ML has to be played against.

I guess that leaves Pletcher and Title Ready.

8/1 on Title Ready seems fair enough, he has to jump up slightly on figures but there may be a chance decent chance.

:1::2::3::4::7::10: are the "logicals", but I'm far from logical.

Going bombing with the :8: High North.

They've had pretty high aspirations for this one, and while he hasn't ran horrible, he hasn't ran a big one yet either. 2nd race as a 3YO, and looking for obvious massive improvement with the Cox/Stevens connections.

He was a bit trapped and a bit in tight on the rail in the Risen Star, so some room outside may be what he needs as he was closing in what is obviously a key race in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last November. A race that has now produced Derby trail winners in Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Bravazo as 3YOs.

Yeah :8:High North is flying under the radar and likely to go off at big odds 15-1 range.

He's very well bred and is capable of running 3rd or 4th here, I thought his last race was a bit underwhelming but he should fire his best race to date tomorrow, time is running out.

Frankly I'd be surprised to see him win the Rebel but he's a useful horse in the exotic pools.

I think there are better here but I will probably use this one on the bottom of a couple of dime super bets. I like seeing Mr.P on top. Many of the prep upsets have featured a Mr. P top line. It also seems like middling horses at Fair Grounds pop elsewhere. Nothing to dislike on the J/T side either.