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-   -   New Handicapping book coming out (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=168415)

Tom 01-03-2022 02:52 PM

New Handicapping book coming out
 
Dick Jerardi, one of Beyer Asasosciates, has written a book based on Beyer figs, making them, using them, according to Rich Perlof on TVG today.

thaskalos 01-03-2022 06:00 PM

I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?

dnlgfnk 01-03-2022 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2777753)
I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?

Joe Cardello.

cj 01-04-2022 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2777753)
I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?

https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/speed-...4&idiq=7686767

NorCalGreg 01-04-2022 05:11 PM

Have not been able to find the new Jerardi book. Tom, any idea?

As far as the Cardello book goes--wasn't much there. Another DRF-published book--this one was about reading charts, from Nick Borg. It would be helpful to someone who has never read a chart, but generally a waste of time to anyone already familiar with them.

If I learn anything useful from a book, then I'm satisfied. Can't say I learned anything from either.

Tom 01-04-2022 08:22 PM

Jerardi book not released yet. It has been written, as I understand, and going through the process. Perloff read an advance copy, so I would guess soon.
I'll post here when I see it.

46zilzal 01-05-2022 09:29 PM

How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.

Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."

Tom 01-05-2022 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal (Post 2778104)
How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.

Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."

Woulda coulda shoulda.
All that matters is the results.
And the results are that the Beyers are sound, not at all useless. Just because you don't know how to use them......

dnlgfnk 01-05-2022 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal (Post 2778104)
How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.

Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."

Andy was quoting his trip handicapping friend "Charlie", who looked condescendingly on speed figures. Beyer obviously hasn't wavered from figures as his answer to "Who is better than whom"?

geroge.burns99 01-06-2022 09:29 AM

When people realize that every race is "unique"
They will become better handicappers.

I use FIGs for only one reason.....to see if a horse ran a top last out

My research shows less than 12% wins next out...

Most of the time with those high figs , they get bet....

With one of the favorites out , you can get value....

My handicapping is old school Bradshaw's Match-Up.....

the early horse will win if no one is faster than him...

Mike

dnlgfnk 01-06-2022 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 (Post 2778182)
When people realize that every race is "unique"
They will become better handicappers.

I use FIGs for only one reason.....to see if a horse ran a top last out

My research shows less than 12% wins next out...

Most of the time with those high figs , they get bet....

With one of the favorites out , you can get value....

My handicapping is old school Bradshaw's Match-Up.....

the early horse will win if no one is faster than him...

Mike

Agree, Mike. And agree with 46zilzal, in the sense that most are obsessed with the finish of races.

After a lot of refinements, I focus on the percentages/odds established by the public. Most favorites are in the 35% or bit higher group. The next three in odds rank usually are a collective 50%. They have my attention. I sift the remaining 15% for a type of Steven Crist "C" horse or two.

The figs don't describe ability unless today's trip figures to be very similar to that in which the figure was achieved, and I'm always looking for a big fig to translate into an "easy trip", justifying betting favorites' 30's percent chances versus the sweet spot 2nd thru 4th ranked horses.

I don't see anyone asking, as in yesterday's opener at GP, "Streaming Tap earned a top 80 (bris) in an 83 (winner) field. How is he going to earn an 80 without others in the field (the inner dynamics of the race) having the ability to do so"?
Happens every day with many top figs.

dnlgfnk 01-06-2022 11:48 AM

I think Andy's speculations here have some validity...

https://books.google.com/books?id=3j...0beyer&f=false

thaskalos 01-06-2022 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk (Post 2778204)
I think Andy's speculations here have some validity...

https://books.google.com/books?id=3j...0beyer&f=false

I too used to trust a horse's speed figures when it was being non-competitive in a race...but I now consider this to be a very costly mistake. And if Andy Beyer were here, I think he would admit that he would have preferred not to have cashed that large daily-double ticket on Big Coach.

dnlgfnk 01-06-2022 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2778234)
I too used to trust a horse's speed figures when it was being non-competitive in a race...but I now consider this to be a very costly mistake. And if Andy Beyer were here, I think he would admit that he would have preferred not to have cashed that large daily-double ticket on Big Coach.

Disagree, Thask. Andy talked a good trip handicapping game, but I never really saw him apply anything more than generalities to the trip approach. I'm exaggerating by saying the figs are his raison d' etre, but Big Coach was their desired effect.

I don't mean I disregard a top fig outright, even an outrun figure. I'm taking in GP casually today, gearing up for the weekend. Within the parameters of public percentages as I mentioned above, I compared my visual impressions of Macedonian (62-70 bris) and Merzaz (83) in the second race, hoping to downgrade the former. If you access their last race, my notes read:

Macedonian had easy outside speed, was passed by winner, gave ground 2T/3T pushing, 3ES weakened.

Merzaz 2/3 FT, restrained a few strides rounding, 3E backstretch, zoomed to stalk later B, 4T, bolted widest ES.

The latter clearly impressed, while Macedonian folded to a rival still under a hold, analagous to a driver pressing the accelerator losing ground to a car maintaining position in neutral. I was mildly concerned about the layoff- one doesn't improve upon Pletcher- and the subsequent drop, but the work on 11/21 was sufficient.

Much of the above involved watching the jockey's hands, etc. I first got the idea that this was significant when Beyer's "Charlie" was able to detect race fixing at Saratoga in '74 when applying his skills.

dnlgfnk 01-06-2022 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk (Post 2778247)
Disagree, Thask. Andy talked a good trip handicapping game, but I never really saw him apply anything more than generalities to the trip approach. I'm exaggerating by saying the figs are his raison d' etre, but Big Coach was their desired effect.

I don't mean I disregard a top fig outright, even an outrun figure. I'm taking in GP casually today, gearing up for the weekend. Within the parameters of public percentages as I mentioned above, I compared my visual impressions of Macedonian (62-70 bris) and Merzaz (83) in the second race, hoping to downgrade the former. If you access their last race, my notes read:

Macedonian had easy outside speed, was passed by winner, gave ground 2T/3T pushing, 3ES weakened.

Merzaz 2/3 FT, restrained a few strides rounding, 3E backstretch, zoomed to stalk later B, 4T, bolted widest ES.

The latter clearly impressed, while Macedonian folded to a rival still under a hold, analagous to a driver pressing the accelerator losing ground to a car maintaining position in neutral. I was mildly concerned about the layoff- one doesn't improve upon Pletcher- and the subsequent drop, but the work on 11/21 was sufficient.

Much of the above involved watching the jockey's hands, etc. I first got the idea that this was significant when Beyer's "Charlie" was able to detect race fixing at Saratoga in '74 when applying his skills.

Oops, wrong notes for Macedonian. Those are for Queen Domina in next race, another underlay.
Should read: stalk rail easy pace, moderate effort B, T while needed effort mid-T; stopped.


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