G2 Louisiana Derby
 

Big Kentucky Derby prep race with a number of solid contenders in here. International Star is looking to become the champ of the Fair Grounds while entertaining a number of old foes and newbies that can take it to him.

:1: Stanford: Lightly raced, and he'll definitely add some speed to the ticket. His two entries while stepping up in class are tough to overlook as he was well beaten as a favorite and smoked at Saratoga last year. Solid breeding and the connections of Pletcher and Geroux are appealing, but I can't bite on this one.

:2: Mr. Z: Gotta love this horse. Gives it up every single time. However, distance is a problem for this one, and he now stretches out to his lifetime furthest route. I'll put on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

:3: Defondo: Struggling to like anything about this entry.

:4: Fusiachi Flame: Fu-peg on top with Leestown on the bottom? And in Louisiana? Yeah, his numbers don't stack up, and he looks like a no chancer on the form, but..., the home track and all? Yeah, what the heck am I thinking. Pass.

:5: A Day in Paradise: Major step up in class, but this one is climbing the ladder and is only making his second start of the 2015 season. Recent works show he may be ready for a big one and Larry Jones and Kerwin Clark are a very nice combination at a likely price.

:6: War Story: As I stated in the Risen Star, a lot of people like this colt. He disappointed a bit in that one, but still has room for improvement. Distance shouldn't be a problem. Serious contender.

:7: Keen Ice: Closed well in the Risen Star, but it wasn't that great. An early "wise guy" Derby horse needs more distance unless he can be closer early. Can't toss from exotics, but will toss from winning.

:8: St Joe Bay: Folded as lone speed in his last 4 races and now steps up in distance to 9 panels? 6 and 7 furlong races are his calling. Not this one.

:9: International Star: Should be dead chalk, and deservedly so. Classic Derby stalking style on board and his maturity into 2015 has been solid. Keeps getting better, but can be beat. Looks like he'll get another perfect setup with speed to close upon.

WP: :5:

Haven't figured out the rest. But :5::6::9: are all I can see right now.

love that 5

What are the odds on Mr. Z?

I keep waiting for Dr Z to perform the way I think he can. International Star is the horse to beat, with his breeding and the "x gene" path intact, and strong performances starting to confirm the presence of the gene, he should handle these easily enough. However, he already has the Derby made so there is the possibility, I suppose, that he may be in the race strictly for Derby conditioning purposes. While he certainly has the performances to beat these, he is not superior enough to win if he doesn't run to his best (or very near his best).

Would not be too surprised if Fusiachi Flame produces his best performance to date. Not saying he could win, but might need to be included in vertical exotics.

4/1
 

ML 4/1 on Mr. Z, blinkers off

:6::9:/:6::9:/:1::2::7:

It's possible Mr. Z takes to the track and competes higher up the board otherwise the Star and War Story are the pair to beat. I like Star on top but should War Story get a better break and less wide trip then he could be there at the wire. Stanford has already raced the distance and Keen Ice closed well to hit the board in the Risen Star. I don't plan on using anything else in exotics but could see Defondo close out the super wager. Dallas Stewart has had a recent a knack of doing that in the LA Derby plus the horse has Buckpasser.

i only see 2 horses that are a complete toss in this race. the 3 and 4

seems like there are quite a few that you will get a price on with a great shot to finish at least 2nd.

the 8 ran a great race last out. i don't know how he gets it done here, but the horse will be lost in the betting only losing to war story by 1L and intl star by 2L last out.

if you're using 69..you have to use the 7 w/ them..the race should set up well for all of them.

I see the :7: finishing well up the track this time around.

Will look to single the :5: in the 1 and 2 holes in exotics with everybody but the :3::4: and :7:.

The BB Class/Distance rankings have (no handicapping, straight BB picks):

:2: Dr Z
:7: Keen Ice
:9: International Star
:1: Stanford

Who is Dr Z?