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-   -   Matt Winn Stakes (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158208)

thetripleclowns 05-22-2020 03:34 PM

Matt Winn Stakes
 
We handicapped the Matt Winn stakes happening tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Do you think this race is for Maxfield? And, do you think if he wins this his odd for the derby will increase a lot? Or who is your favorites for this race?


classhandicapper 05-22-2020 05:52 PM

I thought Maxfield got favorable setups in both of his races. I don't like that he's slow out of the gate and coming off a long layoff with bigger targets down the line either. It's also not like he's clearly faster than some of the other contenders in the race. Visually he was very impressive. So the question for me is whether he's a very good horse from Godolphin that just happened to get good setups or a pretty good but overrated horse that took advantage of them. I think it's tough to take a short price on him. But it's not like I've been waiting all winter to play against him either. I'll look at the race tomorrow and see how the track is playing.

thetripleclowns 05-22-2020 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2606378)
I thought Maxfield got favorable setups in both of his races. I don't like that he's slow out of the gate and coming off a long layoff with bigger targets down the line either. It's also not like he's clearly faster than some of the other contenders in the race. Visually he was very impressive. So the question for me is whether he's a very good horse from Godolphin that just happened to get good setups or a pretty good but overrated horse that took advantage of them. I think it's tough to take a short price on him. But it's not like I've been waiting all winter to play against him either. I'll look at the race tomorrow and see how the track is playing.

Agreed! Its hard to bet against him. I think I sway between are they just going to run him tomorrow to run him, because the summer is full of derby prep races. Or are they going to run him hard to get the points now.

1GCFAN 05-23-2020 12:52 AM

Maxfield could be another Bolt d' Oro. He was obviously very impressive beating two year olds that weren't ready for two turns. I will look at others.

Ocala Mike 05-23-2020 11:00 AM

Using the :1: horse to hit the board somewhere. Agree that Maxfield seems to lay over this bunch, though.

HandyKapper 05-23-2020 11:24 AM

Scratch
#1 Mystic Guide
#8 Crypto Cash

Ocala Mike 05-23-2020 12:13 PM

My :1: horse (the other Godolphin) scratched. Now will key on the :2: in exactas with a bunch (heavy with Maxfield). Asmussen/Santana hot now.

clicknow 05-23-2020 01:10 PM

Max, at 1-1/16th not exciting. More of a belmont horse IMHO, not fast, can go 10F+. Not a speedster. For this race I was going to box :2::6::10::12: Those are the only horses I like anyway GL to everyone

clicknow 05-23-2020 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow (Post 2606629)
Max, at 1-1/16th not exciting. More of a belmont horse IMHO, not fast, can go 10F+. Not a speedster. For this race I was going to box :2::6::10::12: Those are the only horses I like anyway GL to everyone

10 $4.60 $3.80 $2.80
6 . $4.40 $3.00
2 . . $2.80
$2.00 Exacta 10/6 $25.20
$0.50 Trifecta 10/6/2 $20.90 $1.00 trifecta $41.80

Not getting rich but I'll take it.

classhandicapper 05-23-2020 06:08 PM

He ran well.

For a moment I thought I was home with my 6/2 box and win bet on the 6.

Tom 05-24-2020 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2606876)
He ran well.

For a moment I thought I was home with my 6/2 box and win bet on the 6.

Yeah, tell me about it! :rant:

GaryG 05-24-2020 10:54 AM

:2: PNEUMATIC for me

classhandicapper 05-24-2020 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2607088)
Yeah, tell me about it! :rant:

I still feel OK about that bet after the fact.

Everyone knew Maxfield might be really good, but in my mind there were enough question marks to take a shot against him. I think the :2: wound up being overbet a little. IMO, he was more the kind of lightly raced horse from a top barn I generally expect might improve and show he's a solid stakes horse, but he was bet like he had already done it.

The one that hurt me yesterday was Silver Dust. I tossed his last after that start. I had a nice bet on him and thought I had a big shot turning for home. The pace wound up being a little faster than I expected and I think that hurt him and helped Owendale.

Redboard 05-24-2020 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2607105)
I still feel OK about that bet after the fact.

......

The one that hurt me yesterday was Silver Dust. I tossed his last after that start. I had a nice bet on him and thought I had a big shot turning for home. The pace wound up being a little faster than I expected and I think that hurt him and helped Owendale.

Owendale went off at a nice price (7/2) but not high enough for me to bite. There were so many other values that were hard to pass up. (Alwaysmining).

Looks like Maxfield is the real deal. Large fields like that are hard to pass. A little silly to say this, it's only his third race, but he's looking almost "battle tested."

classhandicapper 05-24-2020 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redboard (Post 2607128)
Owendale went off at a nice price (7/2) but not high enough for me to bite.

Yeah, he went off a little longer than I expected going into the race. With the layoff, cutback, a deep closing style, a race that didn't look like a hot pace was likely, and my thinking that he got a pretty good setup in the Foster, I went into the race with an "against him" bias. Sometimes you have to adjust your thinking a little when the odds are different that you expected. It didn't cost me anything though because I didn't like Everfast. So I wasn't going to catch that exacta even if I used him with Silver Dust.


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