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-   -   Two year old races (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=165996)

Mick 07-31-2021 01:26 PM

Two year old races
 
For the last year and a half, I have been getting back into the swing of horse racing after a 40 year + layoff working for a living. As such, I am starting out handicapping and betting young horses only. At Saratoga, I have been betting a lot of two year old races with multiple FTS. What tools do you use when studying FTS? I have my list and the priority that I use, but what do others use to evaluate two year old races in addition to FTS?

alhattab 07-31-2021 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 2742456)
For the last year and a half, I have been getting back into the swing of horse racing after a 40 year + layoff working for a living. As such, I am starting out handicapping and betting young horses only. At Saratoga, I have been betting a lot of two year old races with multiple FTS. What tools do you use when studying FTS? I have my list and the priority that I use, but what do others use to evaluate two year old races in addition to FTS?

I try to watch works on XBTV or the sale works (you can find works even if horse didn’t sell e.g. the 7 in 1st at Saratoga today)

Mick 07-31-2021 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alhattab (Post 2742492)
I try to watch works on XBTV or the sale works (you can find works even if horse didnít sell e.g. the 7 in 1st at Saratoga today)

That is an excellent site, I am playing Sweeping Giant and saw him work against his Dam. Maggie prefers the 2-1 favorite Doctor Davis, but I am sticking with the Curlin offspring Sweeping Giant.

thaskalos 07-31-2021 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 2742456)
For the last year and a half, I have been getting back into the swing of horse racing after a 40 year + layoff working for a living. As such, I am starting out handicapping and betting young horses only. At Saratoga, I have been betting a lot of two year old races with multiple FTS. What tools do you use when studying FTS? I have my list and the priority that I use, but what do others use to evaluate two year old races in addition to FTS?

How has this been working out for you?

Tom 07-31-2021 06:27 PM

FTS FACTORS.....

1. No other horse has run within 2 lengths of par

2. Sire FTS stats at least 11%
3. Trainer FTS stats at least 11%

4. Good workout within last 3-4 weeks
-bullet work
-bullet work that was a full second faster than the next one - double credit
-at 4 furlongs, in top 10% of at least 10 total workouts for the day
-at 5 furlongs, in top 20% of at least 10 total workouts for the day

Mick 08-01-2021 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2742521)
How has this been working out for you?

I am not losing a ton of money, so not bad. I've had five winners and two seconds in 12 total races. The list I played is below. I was checking this morning and had I just stuck to win bets, I'd be ahead. I bet progressively more to place and show and that is where I lose money. I am reconsidering how to bet them.


Microbiome
Echo Zulu
Tough Street
Chattalot
Headline Report
Coinage
Good Skate
Chileno
Miss Interpret
Raw Courage
LaoBan's Legacy
Sweeping Giant

Mick 08-01-2021 08:35 AM

Looking at race two at Saratoga today, it looks like seven fillies will hit the lawn.

Silvery Rill and Barrett both appear to have the pedigree needed to win at this level. Blissful is another FTS who wouldn't be much of a surprise. Waterville out of Kitten's Joy could be dangerous. I bet Sweeping Giant yesterday and a Kitten's Joy offspring (Limited Liability) bested my horse for the win.

I watched the Silvery Rill workout on the site mentioned and she looked good working. Usually, I wait to see them in the paddock before betting but I have an event to go to today, so will sneak a bet in later.

Bennie 08-01-2021 11:04 AM

Mick - They are not always right but if you watch Spa Babies at Saratoga on the DRF site, Nicole and Dan can offer some insight. Nicole is very knowledgeable about breeding.

Mick 08-01-2021 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bennie (Post 2742680)
Mick - They are not always right but if you watch Spa Babies at Saratoga on the DRF site, Nicole and Dan can offer some insight. Nicole is very knowledgeable about breeding.

Thanks Bennie.

I like Dan very much but I haven't seen Nicole before. The latest video I see on youtube was the race I took Raw Courage. Do you know if there is a more recent video on the DRF page? I couldn't find a section for Spa Babies.

classhandicapper 08-01-2021 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 2742657)
I am not losing a ton of money, so not bad. I've had five winners and two seconds in 12 total races. The list I played is below. I was checking this morning and had I just stuck to win bets, I'd be ahead. I bet progressively more to place and show and that is where I lose money. I am reconsidering how to bet

The stats on FTS suggest that those that get bet are less likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than their win odds suggest. They tend to be more all or nothing than the typical horse probably due to gate and greenness issues. But the public is pretty sharp and bets them accordingly.

Mick 08-01-2021 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2742698)
The stats on FTS suggest that those that get bet are less likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than their win odds suggest. They tend to be more all or nothing than the typical horse probably due to gate and greenness issues. But the public is pretty sharp and bets them accordingly.

Yes, I see that there is a lot more information available today about FTS and lightly raced horses than back in the day. That is why there are fewer great odds on logical firsters.

What I like about these races is that those sharp handicappers that rely on computer statistics are less likely to be interested in these baby races. Pace scenarios are very unpredictable when you have 4-5 FTS in a race.

Bennie 08-01-2021 02:13 PM

Mick - go to DRF.com , click on news and info at the top , then click on drf.tv. Just scroll down from there.

Mick 08-01-2021 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bennie (Post 2742721)
Mick - go to DRF.com , click on news and info at the top , then click on drf.tv. Just scroll down from there.

That worked like a charm. They put on a good show with insight about the two year olds.

Thanks

-Mick

Mick 08-04-2021 11:31 AM

Thanks to everyone for the help thus far. I was looking over race three today and checked work out videos and Dan Illman solo on Spa babies. Dan more or less confirmed most of what I had analyzed and added some pedigree information that I couldn't find.

I have whittled the race down to my final four:

1. Sire side is new but appears to be hot with FTS.
2. Nyquist as sire and a very fast 3F early workout.
3. Last race was very good and experience is on her side.
4. Her workout on the grass visually impressed me.

pandy 08-04-2021 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 2742456)
For the last year and a half, I have been getting back into the swing of horse racing after a 40 year + layoff working for a living. As such, I am starting out handicapping and betting young horses only. At Saratoga, I have been betting a lot of two year old races with multiple FTS. What tools do you use when studying FTS? I have my list and the priority that I use, but what do others use to evaluate two year old races in addition to FTS?

BreezeFigs, were are included in DRF Plus subscriptions, are very good.


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