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-   -   Mohawk Vulnerable Favorites Thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=163970)

Sea Biscuit 04-01-2021 03:25 PM

Mohawk Vulnerable Favorites Thread
 
I have been mulling over starting this thread for some time now. This will be an ongoing thread for at least a month. After a month I will then decide whether to continue the thread or its just an exercise in futility. I will be keeping stats and will be sharing with you the results from time to time. I am hoping for a 50 to 60 % hit rate. For the purpose of this thread a vulnerable favorite should not win the race. They can come 2nd or 3rd which most of these vulnerable favorites do end up finishing. I will be targeting the 1st and 2nd morning line favorites which take most of the monies come post time and eventually ending up as the favorites. Weeding out a vulnerable favorite is no easy task. I employ a number of handicapping skills which I have learned over the years which Iíll be discussing during the course of this thread. If you are successful at weeding out a VF (vulnerable favorite) at least 50 to 60 % of the time, you have a chance at making good money in this very tough game. I say this because the horses you will be betting will be going off at decent odds anywhere from 3-1 to 8-1 and even higher. Needless to say weeding out a VF is just half the job and the other half being able to select the right winning horse. For the purpose of this thread we will be concentrating only on the first half ie weeding out the VF. If you have a VF of our own, please chime in this thread. All you have to give out is the track name the date and the horses # and the name of the horse. If you wish to comment on one of my given VFs please do so before the race and not after its all over. Its OK to call me nuts or crazy if one or more of the horses I have declared a VF is the one you liked the most. Enuff said lets get down to business at hand.

Mohawk Thursday April 1, 2021
Race 1 #8 Arrakis is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. He goes into the winning Richard Moreau barn off a claim in his last start. In his last start Arrakis was stalking the leader in the 3 hole when the front end was going at killing pace (-2.03) with a split of 3 secs and yet he managed to get 2nd by 4 lengths. A weak race at best. He went off as the even money favorite and claimed from the 2nd best trainer on the grounds who is no slouch either as a trainer. Arrakis moves from the 2 hole to the tough 8 hole and he is my first VF of the day. The 7/2 morning line favorite is the #2 Apostle Peter and for the life of me I canít see him winning the race. A definite VF for me.

Race 2 #8 Bluemoon Bayama will be the hot favorite in here. He set a slow pace (+0.47) and prevailed. He is also going in the 8 hole from the favorable 5 hole last time out. I have often seen such horses stop in the stretch. A VF for me.

Bogo 04-01-2021 04:53 PM

Great idea. Thanks for posting SB.

Ray2000 04-01-2021 06:06 PM

Very interesting, Mr. Sea Biscuit. And an added interest to watch these racesÖ.:)

Thanks for the comments.

Sea Biscuit 04-02-2021 05:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit (Post 2712189)
Mohawk Thursday April 1, 2021
Race 1 #8 Arrakis is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. He goes into the winning Richard Moreau barn off a claim in his last start. In his last start Arrakis was stalking the leader in the 3 hole when the front end was going at killing pace (-2.03) with a split of 3 secs and yet he managed to get 2nd by 4 lengths. A weak race at best. He went off as the even money favorite and claimed from the 2nd best trainer on the grounds who is no slouch either as a trainer. Arrakis moves from the 2 hole to the tough 8 hole and he is my first VF of the day. The 7/2 morning line favorite is the #2 Apostle Peter and for the life of me I can’t see him winning the race. A definite VF for me.

Race 2 #8 Bluemoon Bayama will be the hot favorite in here. He set a slow pace (+0.47) and prevailed. He is also going in the 8 hole from the favorable 5 hole last time out. I have often seen such horses stop in the stretch. A VF for me.


Race 1 The complexion of the race changed dramatically when #9 Montalbano Bi, who was expected to take the lead, made a break at the start of the race. #8 Arrakis went to the top and never looked back on the heavily biased track favoring the front runners.


Race 2 #8 Bluemoon Bayama was installed as the heavy favorite and got himself a 2 hole trip but had nothing left in the stretch to overtake the leader.

Sea Biscuit 04-02-2021 12:11 PM

Mohawk Friday April 2



Race 5 The morning line favorite is the #10 horse Jaydens Place. He was my pick in that race of March 26 and he rewarded me with a 13.70 mutuel. He won from an impossible position from almost dead last to 1st. He has been docked with the 10 hole once again today and the track of late has been favoring the front runners. Besides that this horse has already won 3 times and asking him to win from the tough trailing 10 hole a 4th time is asking a bit too much from a 15 claimer in my humble opinion. Today he is a VF for me.

Sea Biscuit 04-03-2021 02:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit (Post 2712379)
Mohawk Friday April 2



Race 5 The morning line favorite is the #10 horse Jaydens Place. He was my pick in that race of March 26 and he rewarded me with a 13.70 mutuel. He won from an impossible position from almost dead last to 1st. He has been docked with the 10 hole once again today and the track of late has been favoring the front runners. Besides that this horse has already won 3 times and asking him to win from the tough trailing 10 hole a 4th time is asking a bit too much from a 15 claimer in my humble opinion. Today he is a VF for me.


#10 Jaydens Place came 2nd.


3 VFs Right 2 times wrong once.

Ray2000 04-04-2021 01:33 PM

I'll post these numbers for year 2019. Sampling from all North American tracks.

You might be able to use it in evaluating the Vulnerable Fave.
Lowest ROI and Hit% is fave today going off greater than 1/1 but NOT fave in last.

A number that stands out is the high price favorite who was fave in last race. 1.03 ROI !

Code:

Post time Faves 1/1 or less   
               
    All Faves        Fave Last    Not Fave Last
Races    3522        1008        2514
1$Ret    3308        1002        2306
ROI      0.94        0.99        0.92
Hit %    59%        64%        58%
                   
                   

                   
Post time Faves Greater than 1/1
                   
    All Faves        Fave Last    Not Fave Last
Races    3819        807        3012
1$Ret    3532        835        2698
ROI      0.92        1.03      0.90
Hit %    36%        41%        35%


Bogo 04-05-2021 12:42 AM

Good stuff Ray. I guess I have been playing too many long shots. I know this is a sampling but it would be interesting to know more specific stats with tracks separated.

Ray2000 04-05-2021 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bogo (Post 2713248)
Good stuff Ray. I guess I have been playing too many long shots. I know this is a sampling but it would be interesting to know more specific stats with tracks separated.

Thx Bogo, I posted it here thinking it could apply to vulnerable faves.

I'll break it down by track in a new thread. Probably won't have a big enough sample for most tracks.

Bogo 04-05-2021 07:02 PM

Sounds good Ray. I look forward to the new post. If it covers 2019 there should still be a decent amount of data depending on the track.

Sea Biscuit 06-26-2021 09:56 PM

Mohawk June 26



Race 8 #6 Cold Creek Cabo VF at best

Sea Biscuit 06-26-2021 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit (Post 2733684)
Mohawk June 26



Race 8 #6 Cold Creek Cabo VF at best


Wrong this time. He won by open lengths.

Sea Biscuit 07-15-2021 08:46 AM

Mohawk July 15
 
Race 4 #10 Gaudi Kir Hasn't raced since June 17. A definite VF for me.

Sea Biscuit 07-15-2021 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit (Post 2738008)
Race 4 #10 Gaudi Kir Hasn't raced since June 17. A definite VF for me.


#10 Gaudi Kir was dead last after making a dirty break. He went off as the 2nd favorite at 3-1 with a total of $5196 bet on him to win.

Sea Biscuit 07-22-2021 06:45 PM

Mohawk July 22
 
Race 4 #2 Sassy Blue Chip A VF for me


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