Is This a good Longshot?
 

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...flessmlbel.jpg

Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know

If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.

Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey

So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.

I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.

Funny you mention the :6: in that race, i have him as my second horse.

That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.

You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.

Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.

reason i would have avoided the 4 is
 

the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd:D

Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.

Is This A Good Longshot?
 

Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

:1: Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.

A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.

Did you guys notice Fairy Link in the 4th today?
Krist nailed him with a 15-1 ML...! Good Guy...
http://www.kristpicks.com/

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Joe has been hot lately too...Same agent as Jose who is out with sore knee...Look for Joe to boot more sleepers in soon....

J C Englehart really disappointed me in that race

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...disapntbel.jpg

Of course I didn't have Isotope in the 3rd

I don't know about the #1 since I don't handicap but if I had to try to beat Brown's horse today I would go with D A Cannizzo's horse #8 Rachel's Temper

Cannizzo's horses have been doing well in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt as I see it going back to May 1st 2016

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...woptbeldrt.jpg

It might not win but it could hit the board at a decent price

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

Correct, had a brain fart when I did that.

What makes you to believe that it is a good idea to start a new thread with the same name and topic with an existing one?

Threads merged

Thanks PA.

The decision a handicapper often faces, go with the hot trainer and jockey, as you have pointed out. :ThmbUp: Or go with the guy(Rudy) who has been on a bad streak of late but can turn around at any moment. Hopefully he can get his "juice" back from Navaro.:D

Belmont Race #5: 9/29/17


:3: Cursor 8-1

Short field long price. Speed figures are a little light. Trainer or jockey do not have overwhelming numbers. Coming off a break with 3 nice works in a row. But I think this horse has 1 big advantage. The only closer in a race full of speed.

Race went as I thought it would, and got a win. Did not think I would only get 7-2, thought it would be 9-2 to 5-1. Paid more to show than to win.

Belmont Race #5: 9/30/17

:8: Alex the Terror 12-1

Another one with out the trainer of jockey. Get's a good PP, and from there has a very good trip. 3 wins at the distance, and the highest speed figure at the distance.

Nice score bro

I find it interesting that J C Englehart had #8 Alex The Terror

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...talwoptbel.jpg

G Sciacca has the horse now and has been showing some positive returns across the board in Allowance Optional Claiming* races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...accaalwopt.jpg

It is also interesting that #8 Alex The Terror
came out of that Claiming Merry Go Round Trickery race the --- Life In Shambles incident:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=140535

At any rate, maybe you are on to something and G Sciacca pops a big price to hit the board with this horse!!!

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

Thank you, and since you brought up Engelhart, he is drawn just inside of the :8: in this race and puts Ortiz up. I really like the fact that Alex the Terror can see the main speed in the race from the start. Gives him a clear view of his target.

The other piece of good news is that Brown's horses have been struggling in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt at Belmont this year!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...salwoptbel.jpg

His Morning Lines less than 3-1 in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt so far have been struggling so #3 Favorable Outcome might get beat today!!!


*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

M A Hennig's Maidens have been hitting the board at a 67% rate on the Dirt at Belmont since May 5th!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...nnigmdsbel.jpg

You are getting an 86% return per $2 win place and show wager on his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont!!!

He has this Maiden on the Dirt today at Belmont:

6th race
#8 Fortune Street

Let's see if he can get this one to hit the board at a price today at Belmont!!!

Finger Lakes #8: 10/2/17

:11: 5-1

Draws the outside post and forces the jockey's hand. Wire to wire is the way this one goes.

When your need the lead horse is a step slow out of the gate and then never gets the lead, the only thing you can do is watch and see how far back he is going to finish.

Parx Race #3:


:6: Simplylucky 8-1

Two trainer angles to like, and if she fires one of her better races should be there at the wire. Three works during the break and the one on September 1st was catches my interest.

Belmont Race #9: 10/4/17


:9: Renewal 8-1

Claimed out of her 1st start where she attempted to stalk and pounce, finished a respectable 2nd. Moves up in class and tries turf for the first time. Breeding says she will take to the turf. A work showing after her last race, happens to be the fastest yet.

Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:

i am thinking more along the lines of 8 to 10-1.

That would be great....but don't think so.

Dead on, odds at post time were 6-1.

Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17


:8: Life In Shambles 8-1

2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.

Hey jay

That is the horse I was referring to in this post

Maybe after all the trickery he comes in today at a price!!

He's a lock to win it for sure