jay68802 |
09-27-2017 12:57 PM |
Is This a good Longshot?
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.
Belmont Race #8:
Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
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TheOracle |
09-27-2017 01:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.
Belmont Race #8:
Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
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Hey Jay,
I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...flessmlbel.jpg
Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta
You never know
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AndyC |
09-27-2017 01:38 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.
Belmont Race #8:
Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
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If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.
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jay68802 |
09-27-2017 01:43 PM |
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey
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FakeNameChanged |
09-27-2017 02:03 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225182)
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.
Belmont Race #8:
Like the :4: here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
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So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
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Nutz and Boltz |
09-27-2017 02:12 PM |
I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.
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jay68802 |
09-27-2017 02:21 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
(Post 2225214)
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The :6: at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
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Funny you mention the :6: in that race, i have him as my second horse.
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Nutz and Boltz |
09-27-2017 02:52 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225204)
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey
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That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.
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jay68802 |
09-27-2017 02:56 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz
(Post 2225258)
That 6th race back was over 2 years ago.
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You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.
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jay68802 |
09-27-2017 07:18 PM |
Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.
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reason i would have avoided the 4 is
the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd:D
Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.
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jay68802 |
09-28-2017 12:15 AM |
Is This A Good Longshot?
Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17
:1: Smile Big 10-1
Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.
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thaskalos |
09-28-2017 12:43 AM |
A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.
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VigorsTheGrey |
09-28-2017 12:56 AM |
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TheOracle |
09-28-2017 10:54 AM |
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TheOracle |
09-28-2017 11:15 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225550)
Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17
:1: Smile Big 10-1
Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.
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I don't know about the #1 since I don't handicap but if I had to try to beat Brown's horse today I would go with D A Cannizzo's horse #8 Rachel's Temper
Cannizzo's horses have been doing well in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt as I see it going back to May 1st 2016
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...woptbeldrt.jpg
It might not win but it could hit the board at a decent price
*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming
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jay68802 |
09-28-2017 11:31 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
(Post 2225559)
A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.
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Correct, had a brain fart when I did that.
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DeltaLover |
09-28-2017 12:26 PM |
What makes you to believe that it is a good idea to start a new thread with the same name and topic with an existing one?
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PaceAdvantage |
09-28-2017 12:49 PM |
Threads merged
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jay68802 |
09-28-2017 02:22 PM |
Thanks PA.
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jay68802 |
09-28-2017 02:28 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
(Post 2225635)
I don't know about the #1 since I don't handicap but if I had to try to beat Brown's horse today I would go with D A Cannizzo's horse #8 Rachel's Temper
Cannizzo's horses have been doing well in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt as I see it going back to May 1st 2016
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...woptbeldrt.jpg
It might not win but it could hit the board at a decent price
*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming
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The decision a handicapper often faces, go with the hot trainer and jockey, as you have pointed out. :ThmbUp: Or go with the guy(Rudy) who has been on a bad streak of late but can turn around at any moment. Hopefully he can get his "juice" back from Navaro.:D
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jay68802 |
09-28-2017 11:33 PM |
Belmont Race #5: 9/29/17
:3: Cursor 8-1
Short field long price. Speed figures are a little light. Trainer or jockey do not have overwhelming numbers. Coming off a break with 3 nice works in a row. But I think this horse has 1 big advantage. The only closer in a race full of speed.
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jay68802 |
09-29-2017 10:36 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2225902)
Belmont Race #5: 9/29/17
:3: Cursor 8-1
Short field long price. Speed figures are a little light. Trainer or jockey do not have overwhelming numbers. Coming off a break with 3 nice works in a row. But I think this horse has 1 big advantage. The only closer in a race full of speed.
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Race went as I thought it would, and got a win. Did not think I would only get 7-2, thought it would be 9-2 to 5-1. Paid more to show than to win.
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jay68802 |
09-29-2017 10:48 PM |
Belmont Race #5: 9/30/17
:8: Alex the Terror 12-1
Another one with out the trainer of jockey. Get's a good PP, and from there has a very good trip. 3 wins at the distance, and the highest speed figure at the distance.
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TheOracle |
09-30-2017 09:13 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2226203)
Race went as I thought it would, and got a win. Did not think I would only get 7-2, thought it would be 9-2 to 5-1. Paid more to show than to win.
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Nice score bro
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TheOracle |
09-30-2017 11:12 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2226206)
Belmont Race #5: 9/30/17
:8: Alex the Terror 12-1
Another one with out the trainer of jockey. Get's a good PP, and from there has a very good trip. 3 wins at the distance, and the highest speed figure at the distance.
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I find it interesting that J C Englehart had #8 Alex The Terror
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...talwoptbel.jpg
G Sciacca has the horse now and has been showing some positive returns across the board in Allowance Optional Claiming* races
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...accaalwopt.jpg
It is also interesting that #8 Alex The Terror
came out of that Claiming Merry Go Round Trickery race the --- Life In Shambles incident:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=140535
At any rate, maybe you are on to something and G Sciacca pops a big price to hit the board with this horse!!!
*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming
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jay68802 |
09-30-2017 12:04 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
(Post 2226261)
Nice score bro
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Thank you, and since you brought up Engelhart, he is drawn just inside of the :8: in this race and puts Ortiz up. I really like the fact that Alex the Terror can see the main speed in the race from the start. Gives him a clear view of his target.
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TheOracle |
09-30-2017 12:24 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2226300)
Thank you, and since you brought up Engelhart, he is drawn just inside of the :8: in this race and puts Ortiz up. I really like the fact that Alex the Terror can see the main speed in the race from the start. Gives him a clear view of his target.
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The other piece of good news is that Brown's horses have been struggling in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt at Belmont this year!!!
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...salwoptbel.jpg
His Morning Lines less than 3-1 in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Dirt so far have been struggling so #3 Favorable Outcome might get beat today!!!
*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming
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TheOracle |
10-01-2017 11:08 AM |
M A Hennig's Maidens have been hitting the board at a 67% rate on the Dirt at Belmont since May 5th!!!
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...nnigmdsbel.jpg
You are getting an 86% return per $2 win place and show wager on his Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont!!!
He has this Maiden on the Dirt today at Belmont:
6th race
#8 Fortune Street
Let's see if he can get this one to hit the board at a price today at Belmont!!!
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jay68802 |
10-02-2017 12:43 PM |
Finger Lakes #8: 10/2/17
:11: 5-1
Draws the outside post and forces the jockey's hand. Wire to wire is the way this one goes.
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jay68802 |
10-03-2017 11:56 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2227105)
Finger Lakes #8: 10/2/17
:11: 5-1
Draws the outside post and forces the jockey's hand. Wire to wire is the way this one goes.
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When your need the lead horse is a step slow out of the gate and then never gets the lead, the only thing you can do is watch and see how far back he is going to finish.
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jay68802 |
10-03-2017 12:37 PM |
Parx Race #3:
:6: Simplylucky 8-1
Two trainer angles to like, and if she fires one of her better races should be there at the wire. Three works during the break and the one on September 1st was catches my interest.
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jay68802 |
10-04-2017 12:15 PM |
Belmont Race #9: 10/4/17
:9: Renewal 8-1
Claimed out of her 1st start where she attempted to stalk and pounce, finished a respectable 2nd. Moves up in class and tries turf for the first time. Breeding says she will take to the turf. A work showing after her last race, happens to be the fastest yet.
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ReplayRandall |
10-04-2017 12:17 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2228005)
Belmont Race #9: 10/4/17
:9: Renewal 8-1
Claimed out of her 1st start where she attempted to stalk and pounce, finished a respectable 2nd. Moves up in class and tries turf for the first time. Breeding says she will take to the turf. A work showing after her last race, happens to be the fastest yet.
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Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:
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jay68802 |
10-04-2017 12:45 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
(Post 2228006)
Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:
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i am thinking more along the lines of 8 to 10-1.
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ReplayRandall |
10-04-2017 01:46 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2228021)
i am thinking more along the lines of 8 to 10-1.
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That would be great....but don't think so.
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jay68802 |
10-05-2017 11:52 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
(Post 2228006)
Hoping to get 6-1 on this piece.....:ThmbUp:
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Dead on, odds at post time were 6-1.
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jay68802 |
10-05-2017 12:01 PM |
Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17
:8: Life In Shambles 8-1
2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.
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TheOracle |
10-05-2017 01:29 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2228367)
Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17
:8: Life In Shambles 8-1
2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.
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Hey jay
That is the horse I was referring to in this post
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
(Post 2226279)
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Maybe after all the trickery he comes in today at a price!!
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TheOracle |
10-05-2017 04:53 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2228367)
Belmont Race #8: 10/5/17
:8: Life In Shambles 8-1
2nd off the claim for Asmussen, Ortiz gets the ride. Draws outside and gets plenty of speed to heat the pace.
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He's a lock to win it for sure
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