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ReplayRandall 10-02-2016 01:28 AM

Stock Market Prediction
 
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

lamboguy 10-02-2016 05:40 AM

i just invested in 2 gold mining stocks and plan to stay in them whether the market goes up or tanks. if these 2 depreciate by 20% i am out and will look for a new entry. i like MUX McEwen Nining and NGD New Gold. both stocks have recently received a haircut. i am looking for triples or more in these 2 within 15 months.

forced89 10-02-2016 10:12 AM

Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.

chadk66 10-02-2016 10:14 AM

bubble is going to burst really soon. we desperately need another great depression to help right the ship.

lamboguy 10-02-2016 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by forced89
Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.

i like US eagles, i can buy them for about $2 over spot. i get the sealed green monster boxes from the mint.

Tor Ekman 10-02-2016 10:28 AM

I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

reckless 10-02-2016 12:00 PM

I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.

barn32 10-02-2016 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

I predict just the opposite. I guess we'll find out who's right.

Saratoga_Mike 10-02-2016 12:11 PM

RR - are you a technician, fundamentalist or some combo thereof? Please flush out your call more. Thanks.

pandy 10-02-2016 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

That sounds like a good idea. Better to be safe than sorry.

PICSIX 10-02-2016 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.

Very nice :ThmbUp:

classhandicapper 10-02-2016 02:50 PM

I am normally 100% invested in stocks other than money I need for living and emergencies. The only time I have extra cash is if I recently recently sold something or accumulated some savings and didn't have any new good investment ideas yet. I have even been on margin up to about 30%. This bullish strategy goes all the way back to the late 80s with only a few more conservative stances.

Right now 100% of my IRA and 401K funds are in cash except for a couple of small positions in gold mines and a physical gold/silver security. My non retirement account has 1 stock and the rest in cash and the same gold mines.

I'm a patient man. I invest for the very long term. I am more than willing to miss the top to avoid the debacle I anticipate. The timing is just a matter of how much the Fed and other central banks are willing to print, whether they are willing to take rates even more negative, and whether they are going to eventually buy stocks directly like they are in some places.

Valuist 10-02-2016 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.

whodoyoulike 10-02-2016 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless
I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.

I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

_______ 10-02-2016 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist
I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.

If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

Robert Fischer 10-02-2016 05:40 PM

this is the big one
 
going to have to put nets around all the tall office buildings

delayjf 10-03-2016 05:33 PM

A Pirates Looks at 50
 
All this gold, I'm buy a parrot, getting my crew together and yo-ho, yo-ho the pirates life for me. :cool:

whodoyoulike 10-03-2016 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

I think J Dimon reads this site for ideas. If he is reading today's ... You're Welcome.

Quote:

... "They have plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity," Dimon said during an telephone interview on CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "We want all these banks to get through because it's better for everybody."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/jpmor...-problems.html

Valuist 10-03-2016 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

OK, smart ass, here's the parameter: 18 months.

classhandicapper 10-03-2016 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

A lot depends on your investment style.

If you are a day trader you have to be right within hours.

If you are at the other end of the spectrum (like me), several years is fine.

Then there is everything else in between.

Also, there could very well be new information that will cause me to take a less conservative stance.

barahona44 10-03-2016 08:27 PM

Don't those "The World is coming to an end" sandwich boards hurt your shoulders after a while? :)

sammy the sage 10-03-2016 08:33 PM

Replay Randle or Barn...either one could be right...the CORRUPT FED will determine...

Cheap money continues...Japan scenario....market keeps UP...artificially...like the LAST decade......not cheap...start raising rates...crashes....

not connected enough to know...and even those that are connected...so they THINK...some will GET sunk...

Tape Reader 10-03-2016 10:27 PM

When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

If it’s Hillary, anyone that has been following the market will know that “This will be the day that the music died”. Apologies to Don McLean.

All of Wall St. is so conditioned to “SELL!” when rates move higher. Makes no difference economically, they know this has been a Fed induced rally and the “music” of musical chairs has stopped.

Once the election is over, the jig is up.

P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

ReplayRandall 10-03-2016 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tape Reader
P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

The OP of this thread prefers it stays here....;)

Parkview_Pirate 10-04-2016 08:51 AM

While I'm as bearish as the next person who understands basic arithmetic, I'm a bit skeptical the markets dive prior to the election unless TPTB would prefer Trump in the White House. The last big swoon in 2008/2009 seemed to correlate with the Fed drawing down excess liquidity. Not sure if they still have that kind of juice, but must assume so until proven otherwise. The global aspect and central bank coordination makes this bubble a bit different than ones in the past.

The doomsday market plunge view seems to be an awfully crowded trade as well, where as in the summer of 2008 there were fewer bears sounding the alarm.

With a due respect to RR, I'd anticipate the next plunge in the markets to coincide with a major war - which IMHO, would occur within 15 minutes or so of The Hag being sworn in....

Saratoga_Mike 10-04-2016 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tape Reader
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

.

How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."

barn32 10-04-2016 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."

Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

classhandicapper 10-04-2016 01:34 PM

I added a little to my gold mining shares this morning.

AndyC 10-04-2016 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barn32
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?

barahona44 10-04-2016 05:12 PM

I can see the market grinding to a 15 to 20 percent drop over the next year.Remember, it's been essentially flat (just 1 % higher) than it was 20 months ago, so that has already cooled off some of the excessive speculation.IMHO, 40 to 50 percent drops are unlikely .Negative predictions are always given more weight than positive ones.Nostradamus is taken more seriously than Pollyanna.Must be a psychological thang

Saratoga_Mike 10-04-2016 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barn32
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

The beauty of Trump is he surrounds himself with the best people. Great advisors. Great managers. It's really great. Therefore, if Mr. Trump defers to Carl Icahn on such matters, he must be the man to listen to on such matters. Many would object by saying, "Mr. Icahn isn't really a macro investor," but I trust Mr. Trump is well aware of this.

highnote 10-04-2016 07:22 PM

My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.

A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)

The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.

The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.

If Trump wins then all bets are off. :confused:

highnote 10-04-2016 08:01 PM

There was a long break from 1993 to 2009 where the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio over a 10 day period never triggered the buy signal by hitting 2 to 1.

On January 8, 2009 it hit 1.96 to 1 -- close enough. The S&P was at 1289. Six months later, on July 8 the S&P was at 2195. Nice gain.

On July 24 the ratio hit 2.34 to 1 and the S&P was at 2172. Six months later on January 24 the S&P hit 2575. A 400 point gain. Not bad.

On February 17, 2014 the ratio hit 1.97 to 1. Again, close enough. Six months later the S&P was at 1971 -- a 100 point gain.

On July 12, 2016 the ratio was 2.19 to 1 and the S&P was at 2152. Where will it be on January 12, 2017?

Historically, the gain has been about 5% after 3 months. So by Oct 15 I would not be surprised to see the S&P at 2259 -- up about 100 points.

Parkview_Pirate 10-05-2016 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyC
Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?

I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.

ReplayRandall 10-05-2016 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.

Not bad Parkview, not bad at all......Solid post..:ThmbUp:

pandy 10-05-2016 10:13 AM

I understand the technical analysis, and the artificial boosting of the markets with quantitative easing and low interest rates. But, I noticed that no one in this thread mentioned corporate profits. Is growth in China, India, South America, and other emerging economies, going to stay strong enough to support U.S. corporations in the next year or so?

delayjf 10-10-2016 01:30 PM

Saw this an thought it applied here. I'm no economist, but I'm starting to see businesses and restaurants closing here in my hometown reminds me of 2008.

http://www.newsmax.com/Economy/bankr.../10/id/752515/

ReplayRandall 10-31-2016 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189

VigorsTheGrey 10-31-2016 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189

Don't be too hard on yourself Randall, the drop may still arrive and like you say better 6 months too early than 1 minute late..Gerald Celente of Trends Journal has been predicting a collapse for at least 5 long years now to no avail so go figure....I think the market is sideways or lower now for awhile so what is the point of staying in now? But as long as the globe is awash in oil like it is now and they can print up money out of thin air like they do at the FED, the market ought to be able to stay sideways for awhile baring the unforseen at least....but obviously I'm no expert so who really knows.....?

highnote 10-31-2016 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189


I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.


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