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-   -   Stock Market Prediction (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133768)

lamboguy 12-21-2018 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike (Post 2409438)
I can't believe the VIX isn't going absolutely nuts to the upside, so I agree with your comment.

you can also look at the trin and come up with the same conclusion,,,

reckless 12-22-2018 01:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike (Post 2409437)
I went one post without violating what I just said, so call me a liar, but I can't let this pass. Who the hell appointed Powell? Yellen was an uber dove - that's what Trump wanted, but he couldn't keep an Obama appointee. So if Powell tanks anything, the Stable Genius owns it. No one, and I mean no one, thought Powell was as dovish as Yellen. Actually, he was thought to be the most hawkish Fed chair since Volker. Buck stops at DJT's desk. Sorry, he wanted all the credited, so now he takes all the blame.

All of the above said, I do wish you the best of luck with KO.

Mike, the Federal Reserve is 'independent' no? We are told this countless times when a Republican president is in office.

Bill Clinton publicly taunted Greenspan about re-appointment to keep him in line. Greenspan did as he was told and kept his job way beyond his usefullness. No one ever wrote or reported how 'bad' it was for Clinton to 'interfere' with the 'independent' Fed then.

Yellen was a dove as you say because the US and world economy was in the crapper. But, are you telling me no one spoke to her from the White House, ever?

This market has been almost straight downhill since October 3 or so when Powell said he'll raise rates 2-3 this year AND 3-4 times in 2019!!

Powell is yet another in a long string of Fed economists who has no clue about the real world. There was absolute no reason for the rate hike the other day and while Powell seemed to walk back the '3-4 rate hikes' in 2019, he was so vague, no one really knows what he was actually saying. These Fed people know so little about Main Street but are geniuses at double-talk. And he read from notes!!

He previously said the economy was too strong and that near total employment is a no-no. Only the Philips Curve idiots believe that GDP growth, wage gains and low unemployment is inflationary and bad for the economy. Only idiots think this, which many in the Fed believe throughout the USA.

Slower home and car sales were signalling a slower growth period 6 months ago but the Fed continuously raised rates. I agree with you that we are slowing down economically but still far from a recession. And there is no reason to raise rates, except to kill the economy and the stock market.

Trump cannot be held responsible for the actions of Powell even if he picked him. Anyway, the Yellen under Trump would not be the same Yellen she was for Obama.

Yellen would have acted the same way Powell has acted once Trump became president. You cannot tell me that politics don't play a role in this. It's played right in front of our eyes every day.

Thanks about my KO buy. I am a little surprised after all my years in the market -- never looked at KO. But I will give this company a chance to turn itself around -- and KO's issues were never like those at IBM and GE so I am very optimistic (as always). You should also do KO work for a possible investment.

Saratoga_Mike 12-24-2018 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless (Post 2409576)

Thanks about my KO buy. I am a little surprised after all my years in the market -- never looked at KO. But I will give this company a chance to turn itself around -- and KO's issues were never like those at IBM and GE so I am very optimistic (as always). You should also do KO work for a possible investment.

I'd be happy to respond to your first statement (btw, read "Secrets of the Temple," probably one of the best books ever written on the Fed), but let's take it over to the general section. I really try not to get into politics on this board (I know I violated that rule a few posts ago). I'm not even sure if it's board rule, but I'd rather talk to you about stocks/the market without politicizing everything.

On Coke, it's the right zip code for this market, probably declines less.

Saratoga_Mike 12-24-2018 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sour grapes (Post 2388276)
gee thanks for the heads up,after we have dropped 10% and many sectors are in bear markets you get a sell signal,ill take the contrarian view and predict we will be at new highs next year.Your TA is worthless.

Let's see, down an additional 11.7% since his post. His TA was not worthless. Charts are the collective intelligence of the market, but I wouldn't rely on charts alone, as I'm fundamentalist who respects charts.

ReplayRandall 12-24-2018 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall (Post 2392783)
Amazing the people that would buy into this market....Oh well, it's their funeral, I'm not bailing them out this time....Let the selloff commence..:rip:

I believe there's much more to come before any signs of a rally takes place.

lamboguy 12-25-2018 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike (Post 2410409)
I'd be happy to respond to your first statement (btw, read "Secrets of the Temple," probably one of the best books ever written on the Fed), but let's take it over to the general section. I really try not to get into politics on this board (I know I violated that rule a few posts ago). I'm not even sure if it's board rule, but I'd rather talk to you about stocks/the market without politicizing everything.

On Coke, it's the right zip code for this market, probably declines less.

this market is picking up steam on the way down. the multination's haven't really got hit yet, but i think it might be the worst place to be when its all said and done,

when you asked me about support i answered its pretty hard to find some solid spot due to how fast the markets went up at the end of its bull market. the recent tax cut did nothing but elevate it to the stratosphere. but your buddy, THE STABLE GENIOUS aka TRICKY TRUMP, is probably going to get rid of the Fed Chairman. that might bring some type of bounce, that will present some excellent shorting opportunities. if it was me i would probably get rid of the FED altogether and take the punishment and start all over. because at the end of the day, it's not only the president's policy that will kill these markets but the whole federal reserve system deserves the brunt of the blame.

Saratoga Mike probably hates me for writing this, and i only hope i am wrong, but in my eyes, i can only see some rotten spiral and bad things to come, and come real fast

lamboguy 12-25-2018 05:32 PM

if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an hour

Buckeye 12-25-2018 11:00 PM

The Market is in Panic Mode and just following the Fed so maybe we should just STOP talking about the Market?

"We're raising interest rates and furthermore we believe and project what will happen in 2019."

lamboguy 12-26-2018 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2410743)
if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an hour

i am done dancing for now, maybe sold to soon! beggars can't be choosers though.

lamboguy 12-26-2018 10:54 AM

Rex Tillerson
 
this guy is going to go down as the sharpest guy i have ever heard of. when he took the secretary of state job, he had to get rid of his holdings. he owned Exxon where he was the CEO. he got out at the high and didn't have to pay taxes on what he made over 30 points higher than what it is today. Exxon looks like it has plenty more downside to me now and the guy only had to work for Trump for just a year to get the sweetheart deal of the century so far!

Saratoga_Mike 12-26-2018 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2410665)
this market is picking up steam on the way down. the multination's haven't really got hit yet, but i think it might be the worst place to be when its all said and done,

when you asked me about support i answered its pretty hard to find some solid spot due to how fast the markets went up at the end of its bull market. the recent tax cut did nothing but elevate it to the stratosphere. but your buddy, THE STABLE GENIOUS aka TRICKY TRUMP, is probably going to get rid of the Fed Chairman. that might bring some type of bounce, that will present some excellent shorting opportunities. if it was me i would probably get rid of the FED altogether and take the punishment and start all over. because at the end of the day, it's not only the president's policy that will kill these markets but the whole federal reserve system deserves the brunt of the blame.

Saratoga Mike probably hates me for writing this, and i only hope i am wrong, but in my eyes, i can only see some rotten spiral and bad things to come, and come real fast

At a high level, there isn't much for me to "hate" here. If we transitioned back to a gold standard, as implied, I think it would be a painful process, as the Fed's money printing powers would be limited. Also, if you look at periods under the gold standards, there were booms and busts, just like today, but prospectively it would certainly curb incremental leverage (i.e., the short-term pain). As you've pointed out before (I believe), exiting the gold standard is what put us in today's predicament.

Saratoga_Mike 12-26-2018 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2410943)
this guy is going to go down as the sharpest guy i have ever heard of. when he took the secretary of state job, he had to get rid of his holdings. he owned Exxon where he was the CEO. he got out at the high and didn't have to pay taxes on what he made over 30 points higher than what it is today. Exxon looks like it has plenty more downside to me now and the guy only had to work for Trump for just a year to get the sweetheart deal of the century so far!

That did work out well.

lamboguy 12-26-2018 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike (Post 2410953)
At a high level, there isn't much for me to "hate" here. If we transitioned back to a gold standard, as implied, I think it would be a painful process, as the Fed's money printing powers would be limited. Also, if you look at periods under the gold standards, there were booms and busts, just like today, but prospectively it would certainly curb incremental leverage (i.e., the short-term pain). As you've pointed out before (I believe), exiting the gold standard is what put us in today's predicament.

yes but if you remember, Nixon had no choice but to close the gold window. the US operated in a fixed price for gold and at the time it was $35, at the same time other markets in the world traded gold at $42. we would have lost all our gold back then if he didn't close the window. today the US is the largest holder of gold at 8 tons of the stuff. this is important because this might be the only thing that can bail us out of our monetary problems. and to get out of its problems we are going to need a much higher gold price. i was thinking that oil might be the bailout method, but it looks like other things are going to replace oil for energy.

PaceAdvantage 12-26-2018 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2410743)
if you are good at dancing, there will be a bounce in the markets on Wednesday that should last for about an hour

That was some hour.

lamboguy 12-26-2018 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage (Post 2411104)
That was some hour.

not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.


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