Good Magic
 

Anyone else think he’s overrated and a play against this weekend? I thought he tripped out in the Juvenile.

It's hard to find fault with Good Magic. I thought he was pace compromised in the Champagne and ran well, and then he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

They still need the points, so I think he will be cranked up.

I think he's better than Classic Empire. Similar breeding top and bottom, both Raise A Native, both Buckpasser-x. Both won the Juvenile and both an early favorite. Magic appears to be training brilliantly right now while Empire had some trouble last year. Magic is my pick, for now. If he does well this weekend then I will play him again in the Future 3 exacta pool the following weekend.

After thinking a bit more, Good Magic already has 24 points and can clinch a Derby spot just by running 2nd this weekend. Would he really be cranked up for this?

The points thing is kind of overrated at this point. All the big points races are coming up later and a 1-2 in any of them gets you in. Even a 3rd gets you in if unless you are coming in with none.

I'm having a tough time finding value in this race.

Yep. Just ran through it with a much respected guy, and we simply said "just watch and enjoy". It is a race in which you find the 'next out' kind of horse.

I think:2: Free Drop Willy is the only play in this race. I think he is sitting on a good move ahead after a decent prep race over this track.

He can't lose Tom because he is scratched

I'll go with the :4: here...I think that's your value

Looking for a hot pace to set up a late run by :7: Gotta Go

:8: Marconi looks like one Pletcher's Belmont Stakes tapit types ... not sure why he didn't go the Tampa route.

Has a good bounce to him.


I don't have any great ideas here :6::8:

1 MTP

Going with storm runner

That was a decent allowance race. :coffee:

Looks like the Derby TRail bypasses Florida this year.

3yos continue to underwhelm me.

Well I was right. Didn’t have winner though. So, it really does not matter. I really wish we had exchange wagering. Who took 3-5 on this horse?

Wouldn’t have had winner. Romans off a layoff at GP with a terrible post. No way. Love seeing a Shakleford win. What a tough gritty horse he was.

I think Good Magic is not a very good horse. I saw him live on Champagne Day and I was not that impressed in paddock. I really do think he just tripped out in the BC. His defenders will say he was short, but I’m not buying that CB would have him short.

Do the Ortiz brothers ever lose? Irad got the lead slowed it down to 112 .6 and that was it. Not a overwhelming bunch to say the least.

Yawn. This is starting to feel like a Giacomo or Animal Kingdom type year. Chad Brown rarely has a horse cranked after a layoff but the performance of Good Magic was quite uninspiring. Almost a spitting image of Classic Empire winning the Juvenile then tanking the Holy Bull. Still a legit Derby contender but I'm scouting for something else. I suspect the San Felipe will have more talent.

No one really knew.

Tornado-I think this is a huge plus, not a yawn. The yawn is watching chalks run around all day during the derby. Wide open is good. It's been five years of favorites for the biggest price day of the year.

I had this thought a few weeks back. The past handful of Derby winners have been among the favorites. We're due for a price. I probably won't play anything under 10-1 and might look more towards 20-1 shots and do a fairly cheap 'hope and pray' exacta.

Yes, the chances of getting paid Derby day just went up but watching a theft in slow motion (6F in 1:12 3/5) is yawn inducing. We still have some chalk potential in the San Felipe next week where we should see Bolt plus one or two quality Baffert colts.

Good Magic deservedly lost a lot of Derby futures' stock today, but he ran fine against the slow pace. He's a good horse, but he's not going to make his own trip, and he's not going to run a huge effort to overcome adversity. He could still be a top 3yo. Too early to tell.

The horse that surprised me today was the 9 Machismo. He closed as well as Marconi and he started his drive sooner. He will be one to watch for value.

Marconi ran fine as well.

He looks like he didn't mature much from a 2 to 3 yr old, didn't grow much, still he looked fit and sound but did not impress physically as you would expect this close to the big dance....:confused:

Orb (2013) is the only FOY starter to find roses since 1995. Good Magic did run fair, albeit uninspiring, and perhaps Chad Brown didn't have him fully cranked. The horse looked a bit green on the turn for home. Brown is the master at winning 3rd from the layoff which in GM's case could be the Kentucky Derby. I'm not dismissing him but that was a dismal slow race won by a Storm Cat (0-51 Derby) and placed by Strike Power, by Speightstown known for producing sprinters. Even the maiden claimers hit the 6F pole a tenth faster than these pokes. Perhaps this bodes well for the Florida Derby tote board since I don't expect any of these aside from perhaps GM to have enough to go 9F. My eyes are quickly turning to the California contingent. Over the past 25 years, with just a few exceptions, if the roses wearing horse didn't come out of the Florida Derby it came out of the Santa Anita Derby.

Calendar has turned March and the single race obsession(KY-DBY) has begun. Always enjoy the Fruit Loops like emotional swings for the next 2 months! Have at it!:)

Overrated?
 

The pace was slow after the first quarter, but Good Magic couldn't find an extra gear and finished a badly beaten third. He's going to have to prove that the Breeders' Cup was no fluke; he didn't do that yesterday.

I hope Bolt d'Oro comes through in his race; otherwise, I'll agree it's a Giacomo kind of year.

A slow pace can make a lot of horses look bad.

I agree with Robert's assessment that Good Magic, Machismo and Marconi all ran well enough considering the circumstances.

Probably biased and stuck on this horse because he was my daymaker for BC, love his looks and love some Jose Ortiz but anyway..I feel like Good Magic is right on schedule. Could get in the gate at Churchill just by hitting the board if I'm not mistaken? I think Chad made sure he wasn't asked a lot this past weekend.

:confused: probably just biased.

FWIW Stonestreet tweeted out that they thought he ran well and are looking forward to his next race

Good horses should at least make a move or contend with a slow pace. At least Catholic Boy engaged the leader in the stretch and McKenzie went by with ease and won with something left. I will give him a pass and watch the next race, he may have needed the race, some do. But if he runs as poorly as he did in the stretch in his next it would be a big red flag.

pull the juvenile out of his past performances and what does it look like? Id expect more for a million dollar horse with a million dollar pedigree.

Good Magic: Still an 'A/B' ??
 

How did we have him in the Juvenile?

I had him as one of several 'A's. My reasoning that day was that the favorite was Bolt D'oro, and that favorite had both some questions and a really bad post.
I used Good Magic, Bolt, and a couple/few others as an 'A'.
Someone could even justify using Good Magic as a 'B'. The main idea is that he was 'one of the contenders'.

He happened to win the Juvenile. That win kind of reinforced/justified the opinion that he was one of the good horses and could be one of several 'A's in a top 3yo race. As cool a horse as he is, and as good a trainer as he has, and even as cool as his name is, - I don't think he was suddenly to be considered a dominant Triple Crown winner.

Derby futures opened, and he was a (the?) favorite, based on being the best 'logical' known quantity.

I have a FB friend who got in line in LV and bought some futures on Justify @ 100-1. Haven't checked but I'd assume that the current or next updates will have Good Magic and
Justify rather close in odds, so he got an overlay. If he happened to buy a bunch or had the inclination to sell, he could 'book' the Justify futures and still hold enough for a score.

We all saw the Fountain of Youth. More questions than answers. If we 'extrapolate' the slow pace, then the winner and place horse are in doubt, and Good Magic, Machismo, and Marconi are all upgrades.
However, - 'extrapolation' is always a worse value than a 'known' truth.

I don't think Good Magic did so terrible as to not be the same 'one of several A's' type of horse. Or if you love another horse in the next race, maybe Good Magic is a 'B' and the horse you like is the lone 'A'.
A crude comparison may be someone like Cloud Computing from 2017. A very nice horse for Chad Brown. Didn't win every race or win the Triple Crown, but he happened to be a nice score for his backers on Preakness day. :ThmbUp:

I called that immediately, how do you bet this horse as a favorite in that spot --- 3 year old, early still in the season, with those odds? As may have been the case, they also might just be gearing him up.

Admittedly, I didn't have a horse I loved, so I stayed away. But I felt the toss the favorite angle was fairly easy in this one.

I use that angle every race

If Good Magic wins the Derby, it will have to be in spite of his pedigree - not because of it.