I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him :ThmbUp: "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.

You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?

Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?

Valid point, but a low priced underlay will have a much greater affect on the overlay/underlay of a horizontal than a horse at 6-1 that should be at 8-1. In long horizontals (P4-P6) I make tickets based on coverage probabilities and then play or not play based on the perceived value of the entire ticket.

If certainly wouldn't play Justify on top of any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or as part of any DD or P3 if I thought he was an underlay.

Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.

Off topic, but what will happen to the value of those American pharaoh win tickets if justify wins? Will they always have value because he was the first in 37 years? DRF sent me one in the mail that year a few weeks after the race

My thoughts exactly.

Toss.

Like cookies.

I hope Audible runs, because he will take money & I don't think he will hit the board.

TBH I don't think a TC will really make any difference for the sport. We just had one. Made no difference. American Pharoah was kicked to the curb by Arrogate-mania like he was a big hunk of horse manure stuck on everybody's shoe. All that did was say the TC ain't as big as one big ass Timeform rating and race call announcing the reincarnation of Man O'War.

I have to amit, the schadenfreude from that whole episode was pretty sweet.

TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?

You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.

I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.

Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.

My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't. And Justify has kept winning. Win streaks in any sport are hard. So I always tip a hat to them.

Ummmm...yeah...ok....whatever bro.

That's right, in the long run you're better off taking a shot against these big favorites in the Belmont. With Secretariat and Seattle Slew, it was different, they were freakish super horses that looked unbeatable and looked like a cinch for the triple crown after they won the Derby. But the other horses you mentioned, the only one I picked to win the Belmont was Smarty Jones and I wasn't confident.

If you think he is the likely winner then why not play him. Looking for value is bogus as the preakness tri returned $148 for a $1 so there is "value" playing the favorite. Horzontals are also an option as it would only take one tote buster or a beaten 4/5 to make P3 and P4 a good option. I will probably play him as a single in the P4 for $1 and then come back with a saver with Bravazo, Audible and one other for .50.

I play the exchange. Price is EVERYTHING. Repeat PRICE is EVERYTHING.

Justify is the most likely winner of the BELMONT, there is little debate in my mind about that. so what price are you willing to accept on him. 1-10, 1-5, 3-10.....what. It all comes down to Price.

Price. Price. Price.

Allan