Saratoga 2017
 

Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks

I've been having my ass handed to me for the last few months, so take what I say w/a grain of salt. I usually find that there are only a few races worth betting on a card, but I will find myself making 'action' bets due to boredom that reduces my bankroll.

I recommend learning pace handicapping (Tom Brohamer). You can find some decent success just by learning how to see the "shape" of the race without calculating a single number.

Question, how often do you play, and when you do play how much time can you invest?

Do you have any types of bets you rather play, win betting or exotics betting?

How do you apply Brohamer's methods, without calculating a single number?

What past performances do you use? Like Afleet stated I too am an action player. Can probably find a couple of horses I really like on the card, but when playing a meet like the Spa or Del Mar find myself playing every race.

Horse racing is a real tough game to bet imo. The high rake is one factor, and all the choices one has to make factors in greatly as well. Would also recommend using pace figures to handicap a race. Most players can not be professionals so maybe lower your roll and have some fun. Good luck.

Saratoga, the greatest race meeting in North America has everything a horseplayer would want, full fields, better horses , the best trainers, the best jockeys the best attendance at a beautiful track.

That being said BEWARE!! This meeting will test the discipline of even the most disciplined players, myself included. I find that I force more wagers at this meeting then any other. Every year I must work at monitoring my wagers to avoid playing the fringe selections that ruin the bottom line.

The things you should do for this meeting is QUALITY not quantity. Be very selective of your key plays and be certain you never make a bad percentage play, this is crucial. Your selection must possess value and a significant edge that can be validated so you end up in a scenario after the race that even if the bet was a losing one you would make the same bet again because it was a percentage advantage situation worth an investment of risk capital

No guesses, hunches or maybe's at this meeting. Yes it is tempting to get involved with these types of tease bets, but the game is too hard and you must avoid the fringe wagers and concentrate on your strengths, whatever they might be.

Myself, I am a win bettor with the occasional double or exacta box for the purpose of increasing the wagers R.O.I. and not to save a bet, to me that can involve in negative handicapping. You wager to win, not wager to not lose. this is how I think though I am sure smart players have found way and methods to protect their wagers.

Remember this winning money is not very hard, it's holding on to the winnings that is terribly difficult for the majority of players. Keep your bets at the same level for the most part meaning the same amount at 10/1 as opposed to 3/1. Be very aware of the lure of the exotics as you begin to see the massive payoffs through out the meeting. If you are going to get involved with these P4 P5 superfectas etc, keep the investment risk very low simply because these are low percentage transactions
worthy of making a huge score when you have a very solid key horse or two in the sequence so the percentages favor the investment.

Be wary of playing Saratoga on off tracks as it is a variable that changes the structures of the races and offers more freakish results thorough out the years. if you do get involved be very selective and, as always insist of top value.

Saratoga is a beautiful meeting to enjoy by betting smart and sticking to the percentages. I would suggest keeping a book of 'Whys', what I like to call a truth log. it is a book that you have to write down all wagers and the reasons you made the bet. it will prevent you from making chance, guesses, hunches or maybe's. it works.

Maintain a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses, this is very important as you must keep your focus on playing the best game you can play. Above all have fun and enjoy the meeting it will be fun and hopefully profitable for you if you make a plan ahead and stick to your plan to the exclusion of all else.

Good Luck!!

Ok, you can do parts of Brohamer's method (and I probably shouldn't be giving him all the credit for it because it's definitely not anything he invented, but I was introduced to it in his book so in my brain I'll forever associate it with him) without calculating. You can look at running lines and identify who are the front runners (E) and the closers (S) and the just off the pace runners (P), and you can find pace scenarios where there are a bunch of S horses and only one E, or a several E horses and only one P or S. It's not going to always fit that easily, and of course you can get way more in-depth and calculate fps and turn times and all that (and I do, I have a python program to do that for me), but when I'm in a hurry, like I just got in the grandstand with 6 minutes to post and nothing handicapped, I just assign everyone a letter and see if something fits. I wouldn't base my whole betting methodology on only that, but if you don't want to calculate I've had success just approaching it that way.

Brohamer's method was an exposition of the early Sartin Methodology. If you don't mind pushing a button on the modern day Sartin Methodology software RDSS, you can get a pretty good read on the main, real players in most races, including those not ranked highly on Morning Line or other mainstream analyses. You still have to form good bets, and stay away from bad bets. It's a bit of work to get oriented, and even more work to delve deeper, but that's the 'barrier' to maintaining mutuels, such as they are ...

You could also drop by our annual PaceandCap.com meeting in the Red Festival Tent, August 18 - 20. Always a pleasure to meet fans at the Spa!

Enjoy the upcoming festivities!

Ted

Saratoga could be easiest meet of them all. Just bet Chad Brown and Jose and Irad Ortiz and you are guaranteed to finish way ahead of the pack.

Double down when Irad or Jose are riding for Chad. Oh and pay attention to late money, that's guarantees a slam dunk. When you see that Baffert is entering a horse, triple down your bet.

Don't forget Chad Brown and bet all horses that Irad is on....:lol:

Along with your regular handicapping, dedicate the next month and a half to watching replays of the entrants on a Saratoga card. Other than the Chad Brown, Pletcher, Ortiz brothers angles this is a good way to dig out some prices. One previous awkward trip from a horse named Saharan, and a bet back on the same horse, made my whole 'toga meet profitable in the summer of '16.

If you find that you always run out of cash before your Saratoga vacation ends...then, maybe you shouldn't "Love the Spa". IMO...the first thing the "longtime horseplayer" should realize is that his loyalty should primarily be to his WALLET...and not to some over-glamorized racing meet, whose racing menu may not match up favorably with the particular handicapping skills that he possesses. Saratoga is an abbreviated meet, with many races for inexperienced horses...and many grass races. And the shippers from all over the country present their own unique difficulties...in an already difficult game. How you deal with these handicapping conditions will determine how long your bankroll will last at that place.

Here is the most "wisdom" that I am capable of:

Forget what people say about what track is "best", and what track is "worst". All of us here have our own particular peculiarities...and we follow different "systems and methods". Get to know yourself as a player, and find out what types of races your particular skill-set is best suited for. And then find a track that offers a preponderance of these types of races. The entire country is eagerly anticipating the Saratoga meet, even though the eventual betting results there are invariably negative...for all but the very few. To be honest...I can't see what this Saratoga "euphoria" is all about.

It seems to me that a great number of horseplayers out there are using the Saratoga meet as some sort of "test" of their handicapping prowess...and their "value" as players. "If they can make it there, they can make it ANYWHERE"...that sort of thing. I just like to keep reminding myself that the money is just as green anywhere else.

I'm going to give you a little "info" that you should watch.

The jockey agent for Rajiv Maragh and Hector Diaz Jr is Tony Micallef....

I would start following the mounts of these 2 riders at Saratoga, specifically who the trainers and owners are. Could pay big dividends, as Tony has been really working it for the past month....Different twists, get different results...Good luck Slim, you never know $$$

Sound advice Thask! He should treat Saratoga with the same respect of every other track by singling out the best percentage plays day in and day out. like they say a $12 winning ticket at Delaware is better then a $6 payout at the Spa.

I think it is worthwhile to pay attention to pay attention to a couple of things. First, note which trips are winning on the dirt. As long as I've been going there, the track does develop inside/outside and speed/closer tendencies at certain times. Second, on the turf note where the rail is set, especially on the inner turf where the turns are a little sharper anyway. There will be races where horses will get disadvantageous or advantageous trips because of where the rail is set and that is good information to have when handicapping subsequent races.

I don't know if somebody mentioned it already, but the Pletcher/Velasquez combo on debuting two year olds has a high percentage of wins, although rarely at a price. Statistically Pletcher always has better dirt than turf statistics at Saratoga because of his debuting two year olds.

Chad Brown is particularly strong with debuting juvenile fillies on the turf.

One other point. When a trainer gets hot, you can get some really good prices on horses that don't necessarily look great on paper. A couple of years ago I remember everything Juimmy Jerkens put on the track was going to give you a live run.

This is more than I expected. I can not thank you all for your good information.
Replay Randall, how do I know which jockey agent is good at what they do?

Mr. Thaskalos-I'm guilty as charged. Love the spa. Love the number of races, the history, the prices and the everything. I guess like Belmont said I need to bet less races and more of what I am good at. I like claiming races. The higher the class the better. There is so much information in these posts my head is wondering what I need to change before the spa starts.


Someone said its harder to keep the winnings and thats so true. Been up $1000 after race 2. Then race 10 comes and trying to break even. I tried to bet $100 a race but since I start with maybe $5000 for the meet, is that too much? I hate betting $100 on 1/1 and then $20 on 20/1. I like the longshot but have heard many ways to bet the right amount of money.

Thanks for all the replies!

I understand. But...does the spa love you BACK? The one-way romances are painful, and they don't last long. :)

One of those old racetrack sayings. Never bet a lot to win a little. Bet a little to win a lot.

If I'm going to go to the track, there is something about being at Saratoga that is special. I've been to a lot of racetracks, and they don't have the same feel or sensory stimulation as Saratoga.

On the other hand, if I see a good bet the track code is unimportant.

Not to be critical, but I hope the romanticism of actually enjoying a day at the track is something I never lose.

And I, in turn, am grateful that this sort of "romanticism" has never afflicted me...and I hope it never does. I've been to a number of racetracks in my life...and I honestly cannot recall any of the details which distinguish them. It's the handicapping of the RACES, and the BETS that I remember; the "ambiance" of the place adds little to my "enjoyment level".

It may be sad...but it's true.

Fair enough.

Magna Light excepted

PanamaSlim, you are asking the right questions. If the high claiming races/stakes work for you, then just focus on those. All great points that other posters have made are allowing them to enjoy the races.They may work for you or they may not. The challenge of this crazy game keeps us always looking for opportunities.
Saratoga is a great getaway for anyone, horseplayer or not. I go up there every year with a buddy of mine, and he LOVES superfecta wagering. I am always on the lookout for chaos races to point him to. I know that those races I honestly will have no chance and enjoy seeing if he can hit. Just be selective and remember that once you start letting races go you become a horseplayer and not a gamber.
best of luck

I will be up there the first full week, Whitney weekend, and Labor Day weekend. Wish I could go for the entire meet, for those six weeks there is no where else in the world I would rather be.

As for the betting, I play my pick 4s and 5s and relax. Unlike most tracks, for me it is more for the experience. If I hit something great but i also dont go crazy. Everyday I am there I get to the track about 630, claim my picnic table and set up shop. Hit the back stretch then off to breakfast at the triangle diner. Afterwards take a walk through congress park and visit the monster trout they have in the one stone basin. Takes every ounce of strength to not bring a fishing pole haha.

Walk down the main drag and check out some shops. Back when the gates open. Scratches, talking horses, a couple shandys, and take in the scenery.

I love the cigar shop in town, really nice set up. Usually bring my own and save about 50% based on their prices :D

Panama,

You're money management is a 'train wreck'. You need to establish three types of wagers (1) prime wagers where you have the majority of edges in a race and this must always include value, then you wager 5% of your bank as a guideline. You do not want to wager more then this figure as any horse can lose. (2)Less then prime wagers you can scale down to 1 or 2% of your established bank (3) Action wagers where you take a couple of dollars for a riskier exotic combo or such but only a couple of dollars.

Myself, I don't believe in action wagers as I know, for certain I am not profitable with these bets so I stick to the aforementioned two. REMEMBER QUALITY OVER QUATITY as your approach to wagering make sure you have a confident wager when you go to the windows because betting without this positive attitude and looking for a hunch, or chance or maybe is a recipe for disaster in the long-term in any gambling forum.

New main track composition
 

I've read that they have mixed more clay into the main track this year. What does anyone think? Is this something, nothing or a little something? Does it render all my par time prep work moot?

Hey Slim

Lot's of ways to enjoy this game.

based on what I've read in this thread, here goes:

1. First and foremost be a fan and a spectator. Sink your teeth into the meat and potatoes of the races. Handicap the races. Go on the NYRA website (and/or app), and check in about an hour early to follow along with the handicapping show. Get into the sport itself and have fun with it.

2. When you are just messing around, and want some action on a race where nothing really jumps out at you: ≤$24 on a Trifecta or Pick-3.

3. Be patient, and when you are following along with the sport, and see something really special: $50-$100 Win, or your usual wager style.


Would love to hear some of those stories!

Based on your criteria of being a “resident handicapper” I won’t qualify because I stopped the handicapping many years ago. It’s no secret that my only source of objective information for playing this game is derived from the tote board. I don’t look for Winners per se. I look for making Winning plays by using the contenders provided from an in-depth tote analysis.

So even if you do handicap, I would naturally suggest that to improve your game just pay more attention to the tote board. I realize that you can’t analyze all the betting activities, but it doesn’t take a genius to see a live horse when even just the odds are changing dramatically (especially in Maiden races).

Humble yourself to realize that you’re an “Outsider” playing an “Insider’s” game.
Saratoga is more unique than other tracks because the amount of money being wagered has a significantly greater volume. I mention this only because it takes A LOT more money to change those odds even a small amount when the WIN pool is much larger. These changes don’t occur from a bunch of $2 bettors.

My other suggestion would be to visit the Walking Ring where the horses can be examined before the race. Saratoga has it set up real nice, so that you can get up close. If you can recognize and interpret the typical pre-race physicality traits of the horses, it can only add more objective information to your decisions about playing certain entries.

Neither suggestion requires being "tech savvy", and as far as I'm concerned is more valuable than anything gained from subjective interpretations of the past performances.

GL @ the SPA

To me, the Spa is a meet that a lot of trainers make it a focus to have their horses ready for. The big name trainers are obvious and will bet by the public. I have always looked for the lesser known trainers who appear to have used Belmont or other tracks as prep races for this meet. George Weaver, Carlos Martin, Richard Violette, Mark Henning, are a few of my favorites.

A good example is in today's 4th at Belmont. Mark Henning has the #5 Cartwheel. The horse has a work at 5f in a minute, a slower work, gets a race into the horse. He will give the horse 1 or 2 more works and try to win at the Spa with it.

You may like this one,


Was betting meadows harness 1 night. Played consecutive numbers. 123 234 345 456 567 678 876 765 654 543 432 321.

Somehow, my fat fingers pressed 875. 876 came in, no one hit the tri!

That's my degenerate side. I admit, I have that side but it rarely comes out!

You guys have me thinking. A lot. Too much! Glad I asked though.

Bankroll is smaller this year. Just couldn't sock away like I wanted too. 8 days away though, can't wait!

Three little words.

Horses for courses.

If there was ever a track this axiom was for, Saratoga is the one.

Restrict plays to horses that have won at Saratoga before.

You will not be disappointed.

Allan

Great post!
Bottom line is, 2-1 pays the same at Saratoga as it does at Finger Lakes. The same grabbers and herders you cursed downstate will be grabbing and herding upstate. All horses poop, but you are more likely to step in some at Toga.

Don't over-think it - just play it and have fun.

Forget handicapping, your method or methods will come to you in time. However, Learn how to bet. By that I mean which POOL gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money. A smart bettor will always dominate a good handicapper.

There is no way to determine "which pool gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money"...unless you are a very good handicapper. It's the smart HANDICAPPING that unearths the "smart bets".

Excuse me Sir, I stand corrected. Based on your advice I will now focus on learning how to handicap and bet to SHOW and make mucho dinero.

So when is your book coming out with the "all new cliches" about horse racing, poker, sports betting, gambling, etc, etc.....??:popcorn::popcorn:

I will give you 2 truths.

1. Over 98% of people that play horses on a regular basis lose money.

2. The game is getting harder and harder as tracks continue to fall by the wayside and field sizes continue to restrict and online wagering of conglomerates dwindles payouts.

The game has never been harder, and it will only continue to get more difficult.

Now, knowing those 2 truths, do you have any questions?

You need to start by handicapping yourself. If you bet with an ADW that can give you the reports(such as Twinspires), simply run a simple report on each type of bet, win, place, show, exactas, trifectas................Where are you. If you are losing in the 0 to 10% range overall, you are like most of us, smarter than the average bear, but you will need rebates and more discipline to turn the corner. If your losses are in the -15% and above rate overall, you need to drastically change what you are doing. Now you also have to understand that these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. The nature of superexotics is that they wil have a terrible roi until you start hitting some hopefully nice ones. Lose $32 here, $48 there and the next thing you know you are -85% roi on a $1000 bet. Doesn't mean a whole lot, since they are all low probability bets and they take a long while to get in the long run.

If you are betting only on track you need to keep track of every bet you make. You need to know how much and what % on the dollar you are winning or losing on every type of bet. Without this knowledge how do you know where your strengths and weaknesses are. You may kill it with your win betting, but donate 3 times as much with trifectas. No data, no clue.

Now I have played very little Saratoga but my understanding is they have big competitive fields similar to what Del Mar used to have(not sure if that will be the case for either this year). The nature of this type of racing is that if you don't make a line there is a lot of tempting prices up on the board. I hear the talking heads from track to track saying what a great betting board it is because 6 horses are between 4-1 and 9-1. Nope, that isn't a great betting board, that is a wide open race. Now it would be a great board if you have a strong opinion on 1 or 2 horses, but that is the exception not the rule.

The point is that your adrenaline starts flowing and you cannot contain your excitement about all this great "value" you are jumping all over. Truth be told if you took the time to actually line the race prior, you will find out that much of this "value" really isn't even there. Just competivie fields offering what appear to be attractive prices on attractive looking horses. It isn't until you actually take the effort to line races that you realize that the field is so competitive that your strong A is only worthy of 3-1 and this top contender only 9/2. The nature of the racing is completely different than the parades of 6 and 7 horse fields we get used to all year long. This make even bets like exactas and daily doubles a lot tougher to hit. The reward is that if we are properly equipped the ability to find value is a lot better, but a lot of times horse players will find themselve betting too much, as they are accustomed to much higher probability bets all year long in all pools. Your runouts in this type of racing can be lengthy.

Which brings me to my next point. If you struggle with racing, line races. Not at 107% lines or 109% lines but at 100% lines. Even if rating horses 30-1 or 50-1 or 12-1 is a completely mystery to you, learn how to do it. Everything I do in racing brings me back full circle to lining races. I want to take on more tracks and more carryovers and I stop lining races, I lose my bearings, and utlimately I realize, I have to go back to lining races. Moreover, if you really want to grown and I don't even do this, but you need to post analyze races. Why was your 6-1 cruising home at 8/5, why was your 30-1 bet down to 8-1, why was your 4-1 at 12-1 etc. Were you right, were you wrong........ Keep recrords. How much value do you need, 50% above, double......With so many betting choices, we can make a really simple game really complex, but ultimately it comes down to value. You have to identify it and you have to limit your bets to those horses. Obviously in a pick 5 or super high 5 you can't exclude overbet favorites or you will never hit one, but somewhere in the bet has to be some legitimate value horses or your payoffs will never amount to enough to cover all your losing wagers over time.

For me the game has gotten easier since the advent of exchange wagering.

Whales knocking down a horses odds and me being forced to take it.

No longer, I lock in my odds (both play and lay) and sit back knowing what kind of return I will be getting if the result I want comes in.

When you almost always get a better price than the pm pools it's great.

Even in short fields you get a top quality price.

Allan