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-   -   My remaining matchup bets for the day (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158210)

CheckMark 05-23-2020 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2606686)
That's not what I'm looking for. I'm just looking for a source that predicts reasonably well the final market odds. Any such source will be wrong a lot but if they're right as often as they are wrong, that works for me.

So far in 80-90% of my matchup bets, the final market odds strongly disagree with TrueStats, e-ponies, and the morning line.

My bookie likely has some other source it's using to make their matchup lines and I'd like to know what it is. There is no way they have some in house savant handicapper that is making 50 sharp matchup odds a day at 3+ tracks.

CheckMark you, like me, look like someone who enjoys a race track burger, fries, and a side of gravy.

MDCnorthlands

Maybe try Nitro as he does good tote analysis?

And sure I guess you could say that.

Nitro 05-24-2020 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheckMark (Post 2606709)
Maybe try Nitro as he does good tote analysis?

Thanks for the compliment and I sometimes even share info in the Selection Forum.

I agree threads posting selections (with or w/o so-called handicapping) belong in the Selection Forum.
But who am I to question that basic concept? If the monitors donít give a shit why should I?

You see CheckMark the fella who started this thread obviously doesnít understand this game very well. Heís like many other Outsiders who think that itís only guys themselves who are doing the betting. They have no clue who actually makes up the betting population and how it affects every betting cycle. Until they do, grasping the illusive concept of how money impacts each and every race will always allude them.

Onesome 05-24-2020 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2606987)
Thanks for the compliment and I sometimes even share info in the Selection Forum.

I agree threads posting selections (with or w/o so-called handicapping) belong in the Selection Forum.
But who am I to question that basic concept? If the monitors donít give a shit why should I?

You see CheckMark the fella who started this thread obviously doesnít understand this game very well. Heís like many other Outsiders who think that itís only guys themselves who are doing the betting. They have no clue who actually makes up the betting population and how it affects every betting cycle. Until they do, grasping the illusive concept of how money impacts each and every race will always allude them.



CheckMark 05-24-2020 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2606987)
Thanks for the compliment and I sometimes even share info in the Selection Forum.

I agree threads posting selections (with or w/o so-called handicapping) belong in the Selection Forum.
But who am I to question that basic concept? If the monitors don’t give a shit why should I?

You see CheckMark the fella who started this thread obviously doesn’t understand this game very well. He’s like many other Outsiders who think that it’s only guys themselves who are doing the betting. They have no clue who actually makes up the betting population and how it affects every betting cycle. Until they do, grasping the illusive concept of how money impacts each and every race will always allude them.

Well maybe not the whole betting background of who the other big guy bettors are or what "really" happens but I think I have good handicapping skills and I never started this thread :pound:

MDCnorthlands 05-24-2020 11:40 AM

I doubt a single person here is making any money handicapping and betting into a pool with 20% takeout. I have been betting sports successfully for decades without knowing anything about sports, and it's the same story over there. Coach Potato Joe watches football every week and thinks he knows something millions don't. There is always an angle or a system. It's sad.

Open a handicapping thread here and it's the same if not worse. "The 5 horse is fast", "I expect to see 9 go for it in the post", blah blah. Just because you're sharing your vision with your selection doesn't give it any more weight.

But let me guess, you are all professionals... with 9-5 jobs.

MDCnorthlands

Onesome 05-24-2020 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2607091)
I doubt a single person here is making any money handicapping and betting into a pool with 20% takeout. I have been betting sports successfully for decades without knowing anything about sports, and it's the same story over there. Coach Potato Joe watches football every week and thinks he knows something millions don't. There is always an angle or a system. It's sad.

Open a handicapping thread here and it's the same if not worse. "The 5 horse is fast", "I expect to see 9 go for it in the post", blah blah. Just because you're sharing your vision with your selection doesn't give it any more weight.

But let me guess, you are all professionals... with 9-5 jobs.

MDCnorthlands

Lol

You come here asking if someone has the gift of accurately being able to forsee final odds in the future so you can exploit the 5dimes match ups to be given up freely to you while insulting pretty much everyone while offering up nothing of value to the community and you're surprised?

**** off.

MDCnorthlands 05-24-2020 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onesome (Post 2607102)
Lol

You come here asking if someone has the gift of accurately being able to forsee final odds in the future so you can exploit the 5dimes match ups to be given up freely to you while insulting pretty much everyone while offering up nothing of value to the community and you're surprised?

**** off.

Value to the community? Quit gambling!

MDCnorthlands

CheckMark 05-24-2020 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2607091)

Open a handicapping thread here and it's the same if not worse. "The 5 horse is fast", "I expect to see 9 go for it in the post", blah blah. Just because you're sharing your vision with your selection doesn't give it any more weight.

But let me guess, you are all professionals... with 9-5 jobs.

MDCnorthlands

I think everyone here loves Mikesal idea of doing a race of the day and having people chime in on who they like. I don’t think that people are caring that their selection is giving more weight, they just want to have a good time and congratulate the winners of their selections if they come victorious.

And no idk if we’re all professionals (maybe we are and definitely not me :lol: )but you can just piss off about this thread. And yes we may (or may not) have 9-5 jobs, but we respect each other. You midswell quit gambling yourself if you have nothing better to do that insult and whine on here. Good day good bye. :D:rip:

clicknow 05-24-2020 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2606426)
Any advice?

Yes. Don't look at other people's picks, and do your homework with PPs before the M/L odds are out (or black them out with a marker) so it doesn't influence your picks.

If you're looking for winning tickets from the sources you mentioned, you won't do well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2607107)
Value to the community? Quit gambling!

MDCnorthlands

I'm a recreational gambler.

Many women I see spend a whole lot more shopping for clothes, purses, shoes and makeup......and stuffing their faces in restaurants.

(And in all categories, lets just say many of them, as well as their closets, are already *overflowing*. :D)

I prefer to "waste my money" this way instead. Racing is a fun sport, and if you win big once in a while, it's even more fun.

And I don't get big credit card bills at the end of the month from charging stuff. I have a cash bankroll for the day for racing. Never go over it.

MDCnorthlands 05-24-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clicknow (Post 2607118)
Yes. Don't look at other people's picks, and do your homework with PPs before the M/L odds are out (or black them out with a marker) so it doesn't influence your picks.

If you're looking for winning tickets from the sources you mentioned, you won't do well.



I'm a recreational gambler.

Many women I see spend a whole lot more shopping for clothes, purses, shoes and makeup......and stuffing their faces in restaurants.

(And in all categories, lets just say many of them, as well as their closets, are already *overflowing*. :D)

I prefer to "waste my money" this way instead. Racing is a fun sport, and if you win big once in a while, it's even more fun.

And I don't get big credit card bills at the end of the month from charging stuff. I have a cash bankroll for the day for racing. Never go over it.

It's early, but I'm calling it. Post of the day!

MDCnorthlands

Nitro 05-25-2020 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2607091)
I doubt a single person here is making any money handicapping and betting into a pool with 20% takeout. I have been betting sports successfully for decades without knowing anything about sports, and it's the same story over there. Coach Potato Joe watches football every week and thinks he knows something millions don't. There is always an angle or a system. It's sad.

Open a handicapping thread here and it's the same if not worse. "The 5 horse is fast", "I expect to see 9 go for it in the post", blah blah. Just because you're sharing your vision with your selection doesn't give it any more weight.

But let me guess, you are all professionals... with 9-5 jobs.

MDCnorthlands

Listen pal I haven't had a 9 to 5 job for over 15 years. I rely solely on my playing abilities for all that extra cash that provides many of the things that I enjoy purchasing.

If you had a clue on how to play this game you'd realize that no matter what the takeout might be, the odds you see are the odds you get! The take out occurs BEFORE the odds are posted.

As far as sharing selections go, I can only presume you haven't spent much time exploring the Selection Forum. There are quite a few members here who have proven themselves to provide some very worthwhile information. The "weight" of their opinions becomes very obvious when you can appreciate the magnitude of the results of their posted selections.
.

ubercapper 05-26-2020 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MDCnorthlands (Post 2606405)
Almost every single one of my wagers perfectly predicted how the market odds would stray from almost every place offering odds predictions. :bang:

Equibase, eponies, ML all worthless! :eek::eek::eek:

MDCnorthlands


Morning line odds displayed at Equibase come from the track. Live Odds displayed at Equibase come from the tote system.

ChartingHorseValue 05-26-2020 06:20 PM

In my opinion most handicapping systems that fail to identify a win % for the horse and thus a fair odds to bet the horse are worthless. I need to continue to optimize my formulas and will be doing that. But I think I'm off to an awfully good start. And I do it completely myself not spending $140 per month to subscribe to a data warehouse. You would have to bet $14,000 per month to justify spending that much. I spend $1 for every race card which means I only need to bet $100 per race card. No problem.

Anyway, I'm a profitable better but do not consider myself a professional. I think my analysis is rock solid and I have a great time handicapping. You can check out the odds and analysis for absolutely FREE on my website at www.chartinghorsevalue.com

Any questions let me know.


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