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-   -   2019-2020 HONG KONG (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=154102)

woodbinepmi 08-28-2019 08:45 PM

2019-2020 HONG KONG
 
With the start of the 2019-2010 Hong Kong meet starting up in a few days, here is some observations that were made for every trainer in the HKJC with the exception of Douglas Whyte (starting his training career this year) last year. These are only observations, they are not percentages. I will refer to the meet in quarters, each quarter consist of 204 races

The categories are:
First, second and third time starters, first time starters in Hong Kong that have ran previously at other locations.
Off for more than 60 and 120 days, and second starts after those races.
Up and down in class
Track changes (Happy Valley to Sha Tin and vice versa and Turf to Dirt and Dirt to Turf)
Blinkers on/off
Positive jock switches (Top 3 riders on) and negative jock switches (Top 3 jocks off).
Distance switches: Short (1,000 metres) Middle (1,200-1,400) Long (1,600-1,800) Distance (2,000+)
Repeat Winners

J. Size
1st Qtr.: Repeat winners
2nd Qtr.: Up in class, second time starter and repeat winners.
3rd Qtr.: Up in class and repeat winners.
4th Qtr.: Up in class and repeat winners
Positive distances: ST 1,200 27%, ST 1,400 17%, HV 1,650 20% and HV 1,800 25%.
Negative distances: ST 1,000 4%, ST 1,800 5% and ST 2,000 6%.

J. Moore
1st Qtr.: First after 60 day rest, second race after 60 day rest and repeat winners.
2nd Qtr.: Happy Valley/Sha Tin, Sha Tin/Happy Valley, repeat winners and positive jock switch.
3rd Qtr.: Happy Valley/Sha Tin and repeat winners.
4th Qtr.: Repeat winners and positive jock switch.
John only had 1 first time starter win last year.
Positive distances: ST 1,000 19%, ST 1,600 22% and AWT 1,200 17%.
Negative distances: HV 1,200 5%.

F. Lor
1st Qtr.: First race after 60 day rest (especially with repeat winners).
2nd Qtr.: Up in class
3rd Qtr.: Repeat winners.
4th Qtr.: Turf/AWT
Positive distances: ST 1,200 18%, HV 1,200 19%, AWT 1,200 38% and AWT 1,650 17%.
Negative distances: ST 1,600 6% and HV 1,650 5%.

A. Cruz
1st Qtr.: Second race after 60 day rest and positive jock switch.
2nd Qtr.: Down in class
3rd Qtr.: Up in class, second race after 60 day rest, positive jock switch and repeat winners.
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,200 5% and ST 2,000 4%.

C. Shum
1st Qtr.: First race after 60 day rest, short/middle and blinkers on.
2nd Qtr.: Repeat winners
3rd Qtr.: Repeat winners
4th Qtr.: Second race after 60 and 120 day rest.
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,600 5%, AWT 1,650 5%, HV 1,000 3% and HV 1,800 5%.

C. Yip
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: Positive jock switch.
3rd Qtr.: Positive jock switch.
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,600 3%

Y. Tsui
1st Qtr.: First race after 60 and 120 day rest.
2nd Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley
3rd Qtr.: None
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: 1,200 23% and HV 1,000 17%.
Negative distances: ST 1,000 3&, ST 1,200 0% and AWT 1,650 4%.

K. Ting
1st Qtr.: Second race after 60 day rest (especially after the first month of the meet)
2nd Qtr.: Up in class (especially with repeat winners)
3rd Qtr.: None
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: ST 1,600 18%, HV 1,000 23%, HV 1,800 36%.
Negative distances: ST 1,400 5% and AWT 1,200 4%.

C. Fownes
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: Positive jock switch.
3rd Qtr.: Second race after 60 day rest.
4th Qtr.: Down in class.
Positive distances: HV 1,800 20%
Negative distances: ST 1,200 5%, ST 1,400 5% and ST 1,600 6%.

A. Millard
1st Qtr.: Happy Valley/Sha Tin
2nd Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley
3rd Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley and second race after 60 day rest.
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,600 5% and AWT 1,200 5%.

L. Ho
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: AWT/Turf and Turf/AWT
3rd Qtr.: AWT/Turf and Turf/AWT
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,600 4% and AWT 1,200 6%.

K. Lui
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: None
4th Qtr.: Second time starters
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: ST 1,000 3% and ST 1,400 6%.

T. Yung
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: Third time starters and positive jock switches.
4th Qtr.: Positive jock switches
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: HV 1,200 2%.

W. So
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: Repeat winners
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: AWT 1,200 0%.

R. Gibson
1st Qtr.: First race after 60 day rest and Sha Tin/Happy Valley.
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: Positive jock switch
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None

P. Yiu
1st Qtr.: First race after 60 day rest
2nd Qtr.: Middle/short
3rd Qtr.: Middle/short
4th Qtr.: Middle/short
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None

K. Man
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: Repeat winners
3rd Qtr.: None
4th Qtr.: None
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None

D. Hall
1st Qtr.: First race after 120 day rest (especially with repeat winners)
2nd Qtr.: Repeat winners
3rd Qtr.: None
4th Qtr.: Up in class and positive jock switch.
Positive distances: ST 1,800 31%
Negative distances: HV 1,200 3%

P. O'Sullivan
1st Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: Second time starters and Happy Valley/Sha Tin
4th Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None

D. Ferraris
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: None
3rd Qtr.: Repeat winners
4th Qtr.: Repeat winne
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None

C. Chang
1st Qtr.: None
2nd Qtr.: Positive jock switch
3rd Qtr.: Sha Tin/Happy Valley
4th Qtr.: Positive jock switch
Positive distances: None
Negative distances: None


These are the favourable and not so favourable distances from the 2018-2019 season for the jockeys in Hong Kong.

Z. Purton
Positive: All distances
Negative: None

J. Moreria
Positive: All distances
Negative: None

K. Teetan
Positive: None
Negative: ST 1,800 7% and ST 2,00 6%.

C. Ho
Positive: ST 1,800 25% and HV 1,650 17%.
Negative: ST 1,000 3% and ST 1,400 4%.

H. Wong
Positive: HV 1,000 36% and HV 1,200 18%
Negative: ST 1,400 6%.

C. Schofield
Positive: AWT 1,650 19%.
Negative: ST,800 0%.

M. Poon
Positive: None
Negative: ST 1,600 3%.

G. van Niekerk
Positive: None
Negative: HV 1,000 0% and HV 1,800 0%.

A. Rispoli
Positive: None
Negative: HV 1,000 0% and HV 1,200 2%.

H. Mo
Positive: AWT 1,800 43%.
Negative: AWT 1,650 0%.

M. Chadwick
Positive: None
Negative: ST 1,600 3%.

M. Yeung
Positive: None
Negative: HV 1,200 1%.

N. Callan
Positive: None
Negative: HV 1,000 0%, HV 1,800 0%, AWT 1,200 0% and ST 1,600 0%.

woodbinepmi 08-31-2019 05:04 PM

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. September 1, 2019… 1ST race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees 80% of Thunderstorms Wind: ENE 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190901_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 :5: Regency Legend (3-5) Has been away from the races since last January while on the Vet’s List with left hind issues. Was all out to get up in his last against lesser and now draws a legit Class 1 runners, will be a nice one if they can get the soreness issues taken cared of but at 3-5 and the jump in class I will try and beat him.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *351 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 2nd, 5th & 8th)
Race 6 :7: Eptiwins (17-1)

Race *742 (Winners: 4th & 5th, Second: 6th)
Race 6 :4: Ka Ying Master (9-2)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :7: Styling City (3-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 7 :3: Golden Sixty (4-1)
Race 8 :4: King Opie (5-1)
Race 8 :11: Playa Del Puente (6-1)
Race 9 :7: Winning Method (even)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 3 :5: Regency Legend (3-5)
Race 7 :3: Golden Sixty (4-1)
Race 9 :1: Multimillion (9-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 9 :1: Multimillion (9-1)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 :2: Seasons Bloom (9-1) After drawing in with the best miler in the world Beauty Generation in three of his last four races, he now takes a needed drop in class going 9 furlongs. After breaking a length slow to the field the South African van Niekerk had him placed mid-field racing on the rail next to eventual winner and betting choice Rise High, then at the 400 mark at the top of the stretch van Niekerk started looking for his exit door but unfortunately he was herded in behind the tiring Simply Brilliant, while the winner was making his money move. He was hand ridden for the majority of the stretch after given a couple crosses and a couple love taps with less than 50 metres to the line.

Race 5 :6: Sunshine Warrior (9-2) Had just missed by a half-length after a big close late in his previous race going 7 furlongs while breaking from the 14 post. Now he was adding another 200 metres and the crowd liked his chances making him 3-1 going to post, but as soon as the gates opened he was caught leaning back costing him at least three lengths to the entire field, he then started fighting Teetan for possession of the bit for the next 400 metres. Heading into the turn he was forced four wide without any cover, heading into the stretch he had managed to get within 3 to 4 lengths of the leaders but by then the damage was done and Teetan just rode him out to the wire.

Race 6 :1: Dancing Fighter (8-5) After winning his debut going 5 furlongs at Sha Tin in December he finally made his return and was bet down as the even money favourite while breaking from the three gate which is actually on the outside in the straight there. At the start he was caught off just slightly unprepared and spotted the field about a half-length, after 300 metres he found himself racing near the first time starter front runner Oversubscribed who eventually tired late in the race. With 400 to go Purton let him have a little reins and he quickly took control of the lead, then with 150 left he was engaged by Super Junior. Zac gave him a whack on his left side and at the moment he brought the crop back up to the reins it fell out of his hands and had to hand ride in for the last 100 metres, it most likely cost him the top spot to Super Junior. He was rewarded only 2 handicap points which will allow him to return at Class 4 for one more try.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 3 :7: Styling City (3-1)
Race 8 :4: King Opie (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 :6: Sunshine Warrior (9-2)
Race 6 :1: Dancing Fighter (8-5)

Longshot:
Race 3 :2: Seasons Bloom (9-1)

Nitro 09-01-2019 01:24 AM

HONG KONG - SHA TIN - SUN - 9/1/19
 
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Today starts another season and hopefully we won’t have disruptions due to the ongoing protests by the HK populace. However, I personally agree with what they’re trying to accomplish. It seems that the mainland Chinese government is trying to renege on their agreement concerning the HK autonomy.

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all to be run on Turf:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-1, (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck this season Woody! And Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1600M C5 (8F)T…...3-4-2 W/ 1-6 ……….1:00 AM

R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T…..14-9-5 W/ 13-7-6....1:30 AM

R#3– 1200M C1 (6F)T..….5-2-7 W/ 1 ……....…...2:00 AM

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T..….10-2-5 W/ 4-14-9 ...2:30 AM

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...5-11-7 W/ 13-6-7 …3:00 AM

R#6- 1000M C4 (5F)T…...1-4-2 W/ 13-5-6....….3:35 AM

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 6-9-7 W/ 1-2……........4:05 AM

R#8- 1400M C2 (7F)T….… 5-2-11 W/ 4-8-9….....4:35 AM

R#9- 1000M C3 (5F)T..… 7-3-10 W/ 1-4-5…......5:10 AM

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 13-9-10 W/ 11-8-1 ….5:45 AM

Nitro 09-01-2019 02:10 AM

Quote:

R#1- 1600M C5 (8F)T…...3-4-2 W/ 1-6 ……….1:00 AM
3-4-7-2– Dutch Win 20% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.50 Quinella

Nitro 09-01-2019 02:30 AM

UPDATE: R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T…..14-13-5 W/ 9-7-1....1:30 AM

Nitro 09-01-2019 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2513210)
UPDATE: R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T…..14-13-5 W/ 9-7-1....1:30 AM

13-2-8-14– Dutch WIN 70% Profit Margin / Late action on the LS Placer #2

Nitro 09-01-2019 03:08 AM

Quote:

R#3– 1200M C1 (6F)T..….5-2-7 W/ 1 ………...2:00 AM
5-2-6-7– Dutch Win 3% Profit Margin-Passed / $8.40 Quinella

Nitro 09-01-2019 03:39 AM

Quote:

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T..….10-2-5 W/ 4-14-9 ...2:30 AM
3-10-2-6– Dutch Loss 49% Profit Margin - Passed / LS Winner got pounded very late at 2mins to post!

Nitro 09-01-2019 03:53 AM

UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...5-11-6 W/ 13-2-7 ……3:00 AM

Nitro 09-01-2019 04:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2513218)
UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...5-11-6 W/ 13-2-7 ……3:00 AM

6-11-3-2– BIG Dutch Win 129% Profit Margin/ $54.20 Quinella

Nitro 09-01-2019 04:34 AM

UPDATE: R#6- 1000M C4 (5F)T…...1-4-2 W/ 13-5-7..….3:35 AM

Nitro 09-01-2019 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2513221)
UPDATE: R#6- 1000M C4 (5F)T…...1-4-2 W/ 13-5-7..….3:35 AM

4-1-5-6– Dutch Win 11% Profit Margin-Passed / $16.70 Quinella & $243.60 Triple

Nitro 09-01-2019 05:09 AM

UPDATE: R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 6-9-7 W/ 3-4…….....4:05 AM

Nitro 09-01-2019 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2513223)
UPDATE: R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 6-9-7 W/ 3-4…….....4:05 AM

3-6-7-4– Dutch Loss 42% Profit Margin-Passed / $7.10 Quinella & $161.80 Triple Box ($644.80 Quartet)/ ALL of that one!

Nitro 09-01-2019 05:38 AM

UPDATE: R#8- 1400M C2 (7F)T….… 5-2-11 W/ 4-1-9…...4:35 AM


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