Pace Projection
 

How do you guys see the pace shaping up? Promises Fulfilled seems like he could be the rabbit and I could see a bunch of the heavy hitters being right up with him. Mendelssohn, Justify, Magnum Noon, etc... Could see a quick pace.

Its an interesting year, clearly this years best horses like to mix it up front. I would suspect it will be a quick but not insane pace. A lot of times with the really insane paces it was the cheap speed setting it, not the horses with solid chance of winning.

I highly doubt the best riders or going to compromise their horses when they know they have a chance to win.

That being said it will be quick, there will be a horse who wins the pace battle and has a lead mid stretch and the question is can he hold of the likes of My Boy Jack and Hoffburg (just picked 2 random closers).

Is My Boy Jack this years Giacomo? Nice trainer/jockey combo, who knows. I think the deep closers will be too far back to close on.this years horses that can run from the front or staying behind the front runners.

MBJ has slow times, 1:46 G3 win at 1 1/6, & 1:44 G3 win at 1 1/16........last time a Lexington stakes horse won the derby was Charismatic in 1999, he ran a 108 beyer finishing time of 1:41 flat......I don't see My Boy Jack doing jack.

very hard to compare Beyer figures from 1999 to today, all horses were considerably faster back then on a Beyer scale.

add Firenze Fire into the pace mix. Pace could be juiced

I think you are on to something with Promises Fulfilled and if he makes this race there will be a swift pace. I don't think he has much of a chance but he could throw a monkey wrench into the horses that are close early and take them down with the ship if they get caught up in it. If he breaks like he usually does the pace should be quick. He has put up fast fractions (since his first race) and they were cooking it in the Florida Derby. Probably can't hold on, may make it further if wet but ensures an honest pace if he starts and does what he usually does.

If Promises Fulfilled can somehow slow it to a crawl on the front end than maybe he can take them the whole way like he did in the Fountain of Youth, with that being said the KY derby almost never has that kind of walk the dog pace and the talent level of the horses stalking him will be off the charts, so it would be a shocker if he manages to pull it off, but as far as big longshots go he probably has the best chance.

Look at it this way if you throw a few bucks on him at least you know he’s going to give you a little excitement for the first part of the race lol

Right on LoneF, that's his only real chance and he's pulled it off once before in the FOY. The other thing is the riders seem to be less aggressive these days so he has that chance. But this just seems like a horse that needs the lead at all costs, so if he gets pushed it will be fast. With all that pressure to perform you gotta think someone else won't let him off easy. I'm thinking if this horse runs, it will be fast. But i could be wrong and your scenario has a chance the way these riders sometimes lay back its made speed even more potent.

One thing I observed with every horse that has secured a gate is the 3/4 call in final prep was in 1:11+. There is no lasting early speed unless we're presented with changing tactics. I'm gonna be nervous if my selections are not somewhat forwardly placed since I'm expecting a good chunk of the field to be bunched together and hitting the go button between the 3/4 and mile pole. There are at least half a dozen horses with solid final 3/8 fractions within a half second of each other. The more forwardly placed ones may have the advantage. If it does pan out the way I envision then the Brisnet pace figures from the Florida Derby suggest Audible and perhaps Hofburg could be quite dangerous. Yes, I might actually wager on a Storm Cat horse, just not the one most are talking about.

That just cant happen with this years field that features alot of horses with real tactical speed, many of them would go for the lead at the 3/8ths pole and I am guessing horses like Magnum Moon and Diversify, Mendelssohn will quicken much better than Promises Fulfilled.

A poor year to try and steal it. Slow pace would only help the better horses and make it impossible for horses like Good Magic.

Promises Fulfilled and Quip are two horses I think are really up against it.

Paco Lopez up.

There's your pacesetter folks.

not sure if serious?

With Repole as part owner of noble Indy and Vino Rosso any chance he can use Noble Indy as a rabbit?

I noticed this too. It may explain why several of the final preps were won by the horse that got the lead first without any real objections from the other horses for the rest of the race. If this is the case, the horses who want a shot are goining to need to grab the lead right from the start, or at least be close enough to pass whoever does when they hit the wall, if they can.

I loved Shackleford, still one of my favorite horses. Really thought he might just pull it off in the Derby that year when they turned for home, but he couldn't hang on.

I remember the reports before the races on him were always, "he's all washed out, looks terrible" and more often than not he'd just go out there sweating his ass off and run his race anyway. If I'm not mistaken, I'm pretty sure I've heard Promises Fulfilled has the same penchant for getting lathered up before races. Something to keep in mind if (((they))) try to talk you off of him.

I kind of like Promises Fulfilled, not to win, but I think he's got a shot to at least hang on for a piece of the superfecta like Shack did.