Derby Hopefuls - Slow Beyers
 

Only 2 have cracked 100 - Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security


since Hidden Scroll's big Beyer now seems suspect (may have been due to an easy trip loose on the lead and loving the slop)

and Maximum Security's big Beyer was at just 7 furlongs - so it really doesn't count- he's never run anything other than a sprint - there's a pretty fair chance he's just a sprinter

right now the speed of this crop does not look at all impressive to me


Justify got a 103 in the KY Derby and a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby


not much time left for these colts to improve before the Derby but it is possible they will



https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer


Wow! the Derby really looks wide open now after both faves lost in the 2 Rebels

Disagree. Both Rebel division winners and runner ups time compares favorably to older horses Midnight Bisou, Elate, R Rated Superstar, Giant Expectations (who beat Accelerate in the past at 1 1/16), etc.

A few have posted decent BSFs but lackluster overall. I do think we will see some stronger figures in the 9F preps. That’s where it really counts anyway. If a horse doesn’t get a top eight BSF in a 9F prep then it generally won’t win the Derby.

here are some historical Beyers for the Preakness:



2009: Rachel Alexandra, 108

2007: Curlin, 111

2006: Bernardini, 113

2005: Afleet Alex, 112

2004: Smarty Jones, 118

2003: Funny Cide, 114

2002: War Emblem, 109

2001: Point Given, 111

2000: Red Bullet, 109

1999: Charismatic, 107

1998: Real Quiet, 111

1997: Silver Charm, 118

1996: Louis Quatorze, 112




this crop is not really even close to those figures right now



https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...=.89b7f8b6f35e

Beyers changed after 2009 IMO, comparing them to 2019 is foolhardy. Been discussed here many times.

Beyer himself has written a column in 2015 showing historical figures in the Derby from 1990-2014. The figures were higher prior to 2009. But Beyer says nothing in the article about changes in how his figures are calculated. If they did change, how his team calculated them, you would think he would mention it. He cites changes in breeding as the cause of lesser speed. He states that in 2015 Materiality earned a figure of 110 in the Santa Anita Derby.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.cb1aecd255d4

Thats an interesting stat. Top 8 on the prep season or top 8 in its final prep?

A bit disingenuous to compare numbers of 9F final preps, the Derby, and races in April and May for 3YOs vs numbers of shorter preps in February and March.


Back when Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011. Here were the BSFs of the winning horses of the Kentucky Derby and their 3YO preps prior to their Derby win. (Derby win in parentheses).


Animal Kingdom (103) 94 – 83
Super Saver (104) 98 – 93
Mine That Bird (105) 80 – 81
Big Brown (109) 106 – 106
Street Sense (110) 93 – 102
Barbaro (111) 103 – 95 – 97
Giacomo (100) 95 – 93 – 98
Smarty Jones (107) 109 – 112 – 95 – 97
Funny Cide (109) 110 – 99 – 87
War Emblem (114) 112 – 98 – 85 – 86


As we can see, only 3 of the 10 winners from 2002 - 2011 had posted a 100 BSF or better prior to a 9F prep, and only half had posted a 100 or better going into the Derby.



Either way, BSFs have lost a lot of their luster starting with the absurd 120 that Bellamy Road received in the 2005 Wood Memorial when he whipped a bunch of tomato cans. Beyer all but called him a walk in the Derby as he finished a well beaten 7th.

Well I am sure it was not intentional but either all the horses at all distances at the stakes level got slower or there was a change to the pars. I dont believe with modern chemicals that horses suddenly got slower.

I dont use Beyer figures anymore to rate horses, and have not for at least a decade.

that spreadsheet is truly great - very interesting

I've never seen anything like that before

thanks a lot

Final 9F prep. Even Giacomo and Mine That Bird had 8th best BSF from 9F prep in their Derby fields. Not a very discriminating angle however as it only narrows the field to eight. There was a trend where the highest last out 9F BSF wasn’t winning the Derby but Justify stuck a fork in that one.

true but it can be combined with some other angles. like a sub 38 final 3/8 of a 9f prep, buckpasser x, etc...

Interesting stat. These Derby winners seem to have undergone a growth spurt at the time of the Derby. Not unusual for young horses at that time of year.

Bellamy Road's Wood Beyer could have been legit. That huge effort cost him dearly. He bounced to the moon in the Derby after contesting an insane pace. I think he came out injured and was laid off for months. He returned to run a good second in the Travers with no prep having trained for a sprint. I don't recall him ever starting again.

My belief is Beyer has projected his figures too low with some races.
A couple of years ago, I posted a graph of the Derby and the BC CLassic for the last 20 or so years.

The winner's Beyer steadily declined in the Derby but held steady in the Classic.
Is he interfering with 3yo races too much?

Here is what he gave the 4 consecutive 8.5F stakes Saturday at OP.

Midnight Bisou 01:42.7 99
Long Range Toddy 01:42.5 95
Rated R Superstar 01:42.7 93
Omaha Beach 01:42.4 96

He obviously broke out 1 or more of them.
CJ's numbers look much better to me.

STILL, in the history of horse racing, the watershed moments are:

1, Starting Gate
2. Parimutuel wagering
3. Beyer Figures.

Gosh, could it possibly be that Beyer numbers give no consideration to the female side of the horse's breeding, or to their actual inherited stamina?

Imagine that!

FWIW, on a chart tracking 50 derby stats, BSF takes up 1 column. Why anyone would 'cap a classic distance race depending on BSFs is beyond me.

Remind me again what beyer's batting average picking the KY Derby winner for last 20 year is...

Horses like Justify, Amercan Pharoah, etc. aren't exactly hard to figure out...if you want to make 80 cents or so.