So I asked Gary Stevens a question on twitter and his answer didn't surprise me
 

BTW anyone on twitter ought to follow Gary and his wife Angie. They are great.

I noticed that in a lot of his win he mentions the probable races shape and how that factored into his ride. So I asked the question.

That certainly does not surprise me. In fact, if you watch the races every day, it should be obvious to anyone. The depth of the jockey colonies at major tracks is drastically less than 15-20 years ago. And some of these guys don't do their homework.

Add the fact I am now watching each race on a 50 inch TV in HD compared to a 12 inch monitor in a box at the track 20 years ago. It is easy to see every mistake a jock makes now. That pretty much explains why my blood pressure is so much higher these days I guess.

I'd say the pace of the races the last 5 years have changed. The top jocks place their horses in the right spots early in the race.

A friend of mine is a statistician in Florida and he is into golf and noticed there was not any real analytics in that sport about 7-8 years ago so he took up the charge and started putting some together. He now consults for a solid group of tour pros, writes for Golf Digest and is on the The Golf Channel.

I always thought it would be beneficial for both an agent and a rider to have a professional player who could provide them really good information about race shapes, trips, etc on horses in the field rather than trying to digest it all themselves, in an area, frankly that they are not experts in. Given the real money that is at stake seems like a small investment.

Back in the day I used to have one jockey agent that would stop by my box and pick my brain. (This was before video was so readily available). I was good friends with several other jockey agents (one still a very successful one) and they were not particularly good handicappers and they did not bet. When we were out after the races we rarely if ever talked shop. I was always amazed at how good they were at their jobs. I had the opportunity to take a leading jockey in MD and could have been taught by the best, but I knew there was no way I was getting up that early every morning.

I think today most are good handicappers and there is just so much info out there, the job is probably a lot easier.

You don't watch a lot of NYRA races, huh?
Home of the Boston Stranglers.:D

Totally agree that it happens there more often than anywhere IMO

A lot of that has to do with the guy that controls the best horses there IMO, and often times more than one in the same race.

I think he instructs riders to go slow and save ground. Therefore, the best horses are not part of the pace. Longer priced horses make the front and of course are going to slow it down as much as possible trying to beat the favorites.

I'm not all that sure it is the best strategy. They go too slow many times and just make it a 200 yard dash to the wire where they don't have much of a head start over better horses.

Makes sense to me.

Richie Hunt?

yes, I have been friends with him for quite a while when we got back into golf about the same time during the recession, we are both TGM/MORAD students.

When I hustled I was surprised how rarely actual nuts and bolts handicapping came into play.

There were a few times I'd have to make choice based soley on who I thought would win. But not that often.

Personally, I think there's a sweet spot in slow paced races where if you go a 1/5th or 2/5ths faster and open up an extra length or two, that's better than the energy you save by backing it down further. But I am talking about very slow paces.

I'm going to redboard, something I hope I rarely do...I bet the winner of the Baruch because I had a feeling this exact situation was going to play out. Voodoo Song was so much lone speed I knew the rider would throttle him back and keep the others in shouting distance, and they were 100% to outfinish him in that scenario. I bet the winner and hit the exact playing a key box with him and three others, not including the heavy chalk.