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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2271433)
Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.
I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.
So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However, you know over time that your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........
So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.
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I'm mostly a one race at a time guy. I play too many big prices to try to string them together. If I go 1 for 3, I want to get paid.
I do understand the appeal of a parlay. I though I mentioned that early on. I just also understand if that you are really cutting into your edge when you start linking bets together and letting the previous outcome ride. For example, lets say I love a 15-1 that wins and pays $32. To my mind, I'd be crazy to bet that all on the next 15-1 shot I love 5 races later. |
| AstrosFan |
02-03-2018 02:38 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2271340)
Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.
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Excellent post Poindexter:headbanger:
At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.
If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.
So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
(Post 2271444)
Excellent post Poindexter:headbanger:
At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.
If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.
So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time.
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The problem is tracks do all kinds of new bets that are worse and worse for bettors while failing to address the problem of the price of betting being too high. Putting lipstick on a pig still leaves you with a pig. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays.
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OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.
Think he'll come back? |
| Poindexter |
02-03-2018 04:58 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2271512)
OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.
Think he'll come back?
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Not a good example, in a 6 horse round robin he will parlay
123, 124, 125, 126, 134, 135, 136, 145, 146, 156,234,235,236,245,246,256,345,346,356,456
I am acutally not a fan of the extra parlays as was pointed out that are done in GB until you are more seasoned in this game. With 20 $5 parlays, our newbie will hit 4 of them. Assuming all 6 horses are 2-1, each parlay pays $135, so for his $100 he gets back $540. I think our newbie will bring all his friends next time. :)
or he can do a series of 2 horse parlay 1-2, 1-3.....5-6 which is a total of 15 parlays at $5 each, outlay $75 hit 6(1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4, 3-4) of them for $45 each and make $195(270 back less the $75 investment).
The advantage of doing the 15 2 horse parlays is that if you win only 2 you invest $75 and get back $45(lose $30 on a $75 play) where as on the first play if you don't hit 3 winners you lose $100, so that is obviously a lot riskier.
All this information should be provided for patron in the program and on the web site etc, so people can play it intelligently and geared toward what appeals to them. |
That is too much work. :eek:
I'll bet show and keep parlaying until I get a large beer. ;)
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| Poindexter |
02-03-2018 05:31 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2271569)
That is too much work. :eek:
I'll bet show and keep parlaying until I get a large beer. ;)
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Exactly, that is why if they do this right and incorporate round robins, they will add to the handle. We wont have to fill out 15 or 20 tickets we just mark round robin, 3 horse parlays in 6 races, mark the horses we like, the bets we want(wps...) and done. I wouldn't think twice on a day I like 3 or 4 horses of putting them in a little round robin. It is a fun action play. |
| Andy Asaro |
02-03-2018 06:00 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2271596)
Exactly, that is why if they do this right and incorporate round robins, they will add to the handle. We wont have to fill out 15 or 20 tickets we just mark round robin, 3 horse parlays in 6 races, mark the horses we like, the bets we want(wps...) and done. I wouldn't think twice on a day I like 3 or 4 horses of putting them in a little round robin. It is a fun action play.
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Right. Gotta have a round robin option. But, what do you make of the picture of the bet to lead the thread. It says six wagers so it is a round robin right? It was not this way the last time they had them. |
| Poindexter |
02-03-2018 06:44 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
(Post 2271614)
Right. Gotta have a round robin option. But, what do you make of the picture of the bet to lead the thread. It says six wagers so it is a round robin right? It was not this way the last time they had them.
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This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.
The ticket reads as follows
$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5
6 bets total $5
So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense. |
| Andy Asaro |
02-03-2018 06:59 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2271643)
This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.
The ticket reads as follows
$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5
6 bets total $5
So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense.
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That's the way I see it too. That's a new thing. Last time they had them it was impossible to bet this way. |
| betovernetcapper |
02-03-2018 07:30 PM |
I see a couple of problems with this. For starters, in all but your 1st bet, your betting into blind pools. There are a lot of horses I'd bet at 3-1 but would pass on at 3-5.
If you are successful on your 1st 2 or 3 bets, you could be dumping a large amount at the first flash of the tote for your next race. Probably wouldn't matter too much at SA, but if it were done at Sunland, you might even make a minus pool. :)
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| elhelmete |
02-03-2018 08:07 PM |
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...
What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.
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| Andy Asaro |
02-03-2018 08:12 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
(Post 2271682)
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...
What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.
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That is true. But many times you won't put the full amount on the second horse. Had I been able to take some out of my parlay I likely would have won half of what I did win. Additionally people who like to bet in the morning and don't have ADW's like them and of course there is the 6 horse show parlay or combination thereof. There are many times I have a few horses I like that aren't in consecutive races and they win but I miss the horizontals. I would put in a round robin at the beginning of the day with my best three and then do the other stuff. It's another option, it isn't a game changer by any means but it's certainly not harmful to anyone.
The reason it can tie in so well is IF they reduce breakage to a penny it will make WPS wagers more attractive. It all ties into churn with lower take on exactas as well IMO. |
| davew |
02-03-2018 08:15 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
(Post 2271682)
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...
What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.
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because you can't make a bet for $3.20 ?? |
| elhelmete |
02-03-2018 08:29 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
(Post 2271688)
because you can't make a bet for $3.20 ??
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That's all I can think of.
I do a lot of show (sometimes place) parlays when at the track in person with a group.
We all toss in a set amount and then one person picks one horse in 1st race and if we win the next person can either crap out or roll it all over to his pick. ANd then so on. At DMR two summers ago, we had it up to a 6 winner (show) in a row and friend #7 had a nice chunk of $$$ to bet and he got weak-kneed and we cashed out and enjoyed some libations and food...only to see his theoretical pick finish 2nd at 21-1.
Any loose change on our tickets we'd save for the end and cash them, never more than a couple bucks' worth of rounding error. |
| carlonr |
02-08-2018 12:04 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2270899)
Yeah, it is not really a good bet at all if it is using the straight pool takeouts, and really how else could it be done? The only advantage is that you get to pick the race to parlay. But from a takeout perspective, it is dreadful. Lets look at a simple P3 in SoCal. Win takeout is 15.43, P3 takeout is 23.68. Lets assume each winner had 20% of a 50,000 pool bet on it in each leg. These are the mythical payoffs:
Pick 3: $190.80
Parlay: $148.00
That is quite a premium to pay for picking you own races.
No thanks.
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The problem I have with so many of the comments regarding this wager is that the wager is treated as an either/or type of bet when it does not need to be. If someone likes a 15/1 in race 1 and a 15 /1 in race 7 and they walk into the racetrack and bet a $2 parlay, the "wager police" are not going to follow them around and make sure that they cannot bet any other wager.
One of the best handicappers I ever met was a dapper (he wore a suit and hat to the racetrack every day!) older gentleman named Mr. Rice who was a former professional baseball player with the Birmingham Black Barons. Every day, the very 1st thing he would do is make out a $2 parlay card of his 4 or 5 best plays (always ending with his last play to show). He would then proceed to make his other bets throughout the day. In his later years, I would drive him to and from the racetrack. I was amazed at how many times he would take his parlay wager up to the window after the last race of the day and cash out for hundreds of dollars.
It was an additional wager that he made every day for only $2!
It was not a wager that restricted him from making other wagers (multi-race or otherwise) throughout the day.
IMO, this can be a great wager if not viewed as a comparison versus other wagers. It more like an additional tool in the arsenal that can have a very low risk (in dollars) and that potentially has some high rewards especially if one is primarily focusing on their "price horses of the day" |
| Andy Asaro |
02-09-2018 05:48 AM |
This is a great thing as a first step to adding value.
I've been pushing to bring back parlays since they were taken away in 2007. In 2012 I proposed they bring them back at Hollywood Park with a bonus on net winnings for parlays of 3 to 6 horses. But Nooooooooooo. Ritvo now wants to do something similar which is great IMO.
I’d go 10% bonus on net profit for a three and four horse parlay
15% bonus on net profit for a 4 and 5 horse parlay
And 20% bonus on net profit for any 6 horse parlay
And there are more specific details to be worked out since they are really separate WPS bets.
There are smarter people than me on the board who would probably have a better idea than mine on how to pay the bonuses and how much they should be.
Additionally he proposed this:
I'm not one to sell a ticket when I have a shot to make a good score but I know a lot of people do. But I would imagine there are times when it makes sense. Be interesting to see if it's legal. Another innovative idea.
The big ones will be paying penny breakage and reducing exacta takeout to 16.5% if they have the guts. Only then will you be able to sell it as a gambling game of skill to the public. Churn Baby Churn.
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| fiznow |
02-09-2018 03:36 PM |
All tracks should offer parlays. It's not really a big deal is it?
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| dilanesp |
02-12-2018 04:58 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
(Post 2271682)
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time?
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From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes of +EV bets because you are ahead are terrible. I know why players do it, but they shouldn't.
So to the extent that an automatic parlay forces you not to bail on a good bet because you have too much riding on it, you can argue that's a good thing for some players. |
| horses4courses |
02-12-2018 05:37 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2271643)
This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.
The ticket reads as follows
$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5
6 bets total $5
So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense.
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I'm agreeing with you here.
This is potentially 6 bets, but it starts off as one $5 wager.
The only part that remains questionable is whether, or not,
breakage is allowed to roll on the parlay (which I doubt),
or your remaining funds are rounded down to the nearest $2 increment.
A novelty, for sure.
Not one that will set the pari-mutuel wagering world buzzing, though. |
| AndyC |
02-12-2018 06:48 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
(Post 2275784)
From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes of +EV bets because you are ahead are terrible. I know why players do it, but they shouldn't.
So to the extent that an automatic parlay forces you not to bail on a good bet because you have too much riding on it, you can argue that's a good thing for some players.
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Let's say you have 3 bets that are all 3-1 with +EV. If you make a $20 win bet on the first horse and win you will be betting 4 times as much on your second horse and if the second one wins you will be betting 16 times as much on the 3rd horse as you did the first horse. What would be considered idiotic money management if the bets were made outside of the parlay bet somehow become good for a bettor if done in a parlay?
Having +EV bets is only part of the equation when trying to win the other is proper money management. |
| dilanesp |
02-12-2018 06:54 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
(Post 2275817)
Let's say you have 3 bets that are all 3-1 with +EV. If you make a $20 win bet on the first horse and win you will be betting 4 times as much on your second horse and if the second one wins you will be betting 16 times as much on the 3rd horse as you did the first horse. What would be considered idiotic money management if the bets were made outside of the parlay bet somehow become good for a bettor if done in a parlay?
Having +EV bets is only part of the equation when trying to win the other is proper money management.
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I agree that parlays are stupid bets.
But it is ALSO stupid to want to hedge a +EV bet. In other words, if you really believe the last bet on the parlay is +EV, it is entirely superstitious to lose the courage of your convictions just because there is now a lot of money on the table. If you can't see it through, don't bet it in the first place. |
| Andy Asaro |
02-12-2018 06:55 PM |
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| Andy Asaro |
04-09-2018 07:45 AM |
2 Attachment(s)
This year I've bet 7 and hit 3. Can't bet'em online. only at www.striders.com in San Diego
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