Post Santa Anita Derby 2017....
 

Mike had Reach The World too far back early on, had to check into the 1st turn, spotted Battle of Midway 12 lengths, was wide into the home turn, and extremely wide into the stretch...all to run fourth beaten less than 2 lengths...the path Reach The World took was the exact one that Arrogate took in the Dubai World Cup...thought RTW was the best horse in the SA Derby...disappointed.

There are no bad trips in slow races....

and that horse will struggle in the NW1X races

Why not Gromley on May 6? He hasn't missed a step to this point. This race seemed as good as the others today. It's the SA Derby after all. I'm still undecided. :coffee:

With just 10 points toward the Derby Trail, Reach The World would have to race in the Lexington or the Arkansas Derby next weekend to earn more points to get in...I'm pretty sure the team thought that RTW would run at least 2nd and get some points...What other runners does Baffert have to go in the Derby now...?

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_f...ard_4_8_17.pdf

Maybe the racing world will get lucky and many of the trainers of these plodders will pass the Derby and the points won't matter.

i thought his stablemate ran better than him even though he only managed third place.

i guess i have to wait to see the Arkansas Derby, but nothing looked that great to me. what i do know about these 3 year olds is that HENCE has been way behind the others in his crop and is just starting to put things together now, he might be a good stab if you have to play the DERBY.

He was beat a neck in that condition two back and beat 9 horses in the SA Derby. He will probably never see another NW1X race again because I'm sure it'll be all stakes from here on out... but what makes you think he will struggle with allowance horses?

The problem I see with this horse is he always takes money and will take even more now with that awful trip.

So true. I have lost plenty of $$ on horses with bad trips in slow races. He couldn't close into a 40 final 3/8.

He is taking a mild shine to me too. I think there will be ample speed in this Derby and Gunnevera is the best closer in the race IMO. Still Dreaming will have to reduplicate his best effort so I'm hoping he doesn't and G has a bit of a bounceback and blows by them all. That's where I am at right now. Even though the Arkansas Derby is the only big race left and we are all watching, these 3 dismal efforts yesterday with come home times of 38, 39, and 40 makes the AD all the more interesting. I still have the Southwest as one of the top preps thus far. If you take the theory that 3yo go through speed figure form cycles as real I saw Petrov potentially taking a regression back in the Rebel. Interested to see what he has.

Battle of Midway is a horse who is coming along very nicely. Yesterday was only his fourth career start. He didn't race as a two year old and will have to overcome that jinx to win the Kentucky Derby. I realize that they didn't finish with gusto yesterday, but his interior fractions were legit. It was only his second attempt around two turns and he did the real running being on the inside of a three way pace battle. His previous race, his route debut, was solid stalking with a wide journey and showing some grit when confronted by the Reach the World.
Jerry Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks on two occasions and he was going to win the Kentucky Derby in 1998 with Event of the Year. Yesterdays race should have put some solid foundation in him and he should take another step forward. I think Battle of Midway could be a sneaky play in the Derby at a fairly nice price.

While I dont think he had a good trip its more that I think he is pretty damn average and will almost always be overbet due to the connections.

I could not believe he was 2/1 or whatever yesterday as his form just did not justify it. I did like in that spot at say 8/1 but after the race I like him even less. Maybe baffert will figure him out i guess.

Yeah he's always over bet. But in a first level allowance race you said you thought he'd struggle.

To be honest they'd have a hard time filling a first level allowance if he was in.