Jackie’s Warrior vs. Life Is Good
 

This is one of the more interesting matchups on a great Travers card.

It reminds me a bit of Serengeti Empress vs. Gamine. Serengeti Empress seemed like the much faster horse early but Gamine had the faster final time figures coming in. So the question was what would happen when Gamine was forced to chase a much faster horse for the first time.

Jackie’s Warrior is as fast as they come early, but Life Is Good put up some very serious final time figures months ago and could be even better now with several months of development.

What happens when he chases Jackie’s Warrior?

Will he come back even better or is this too tough a spot off the bench for a new trainer?

Will he be so sharp off he layoff that they go at it so hard they set it up for someone else? There are some other very good up and coming sprinters in that field.

I’m not sure it’s the best betting race unless you are going to try to beat both, but it’s a great race.

On paper, at least, Life is Good will not be chasing. Eye to eye, head to head. Yes, Jackie's Warrior is quick. But I can't help but seeing that 21:4 opening fraction in LIG's only sprint. Sub :22 and :44:2 is a real possible start. Both will be tested, and it should be fun to watch.

Yea, Judge N Jury may get an excellent setup. He's fifth choice.

Much depends on the break, and whether the speeds hound Jackie's Warrior.
Jackie's Warrior looks very strong, and if he can break and weather the early storm, it's all his.

Life is Good is going to be a short price, and although Pletcher is tremendous with training a horse up to a race, there is a significant enough of a change here, that I need to project in my head as to how he will perform. I don't take short prices in those situations.

Some questions; Will Following Sea be used to harass Jackie's Warrior? Will Life is Good and Money Mike go 'mana o mano' right from the gate?
Is this race going to be conservative with the late season racing in mind?

I'm looking at verticals with :2: with some :1: and some :5: and whether it's worth playing.

I think it’s possible Jackie’s Warrior benefitted from the sloppy sealed tack last time. The last 2 races that day hinted the track may have changed. If it did, it may have helped carry him a bit off that rapid pace. IMO, that race may not have been quite as good as it looks. Normally I’d be looking to beat a horse like that. But even if you toss that last race he’s a terror off the prior race. So it’s not you’d be betting against a mediocre horse that may have been advantaged last time. He’s a high quality sprinter either way. Still, I don’t want him.

I think LIG is the better horse, but I’m not a big fan of betting layoff horses in Grade 1 races on the dirt even if the trainer is good with layoffs.

For me, the only option would be to bet against both of them. If I had a strong opinion on 3rd best and the track wasn’t being especially kind to speed, I’d probably try that. But even if they go at it hard early I may not come up with the right horse to pick them up. That next group is VERY promising, but it’s a lot to ask at this stage to beat BOTH of these horses and it’s not clear (at least to me) which one to take.

If LIG was still with Baffert. I wouldn't have a problem betting him, with Pletcher I'm not so sure.

With the way Pletcher's 2YOs have been firing this year in their first starts, I have a lot of confidence in his getting Life Is Good ready to fire his best off the layoff.

You have to look really hard for little wrinkles of late pace propensity in this crowd. There's just no obvious late runner to complement the speed matchup. Not that I'm expecting the race to fall apart outright—there's just too much talent here for that.

The best late pace projection from TFUS belongs to the :6:, and by some margin. It's the most accomplished with the least races, possessed the brightest prospects of its cohort, and figures to come back strong as can be here.

But betting against Jackie's Warrior in this sprint? It's not like there's much time to wear him down, and it won't be easy to pass him. But with a short enough price on :2: and decent second choice odds on :6:, that's the pick if I have to make one.

I wonder if :1: gets a smidgen overbet based on its victory over the favorite two back, and too much stock in a sloppy track excuse last time out. I'd want to see an odds gap to fourth choice on this one.

I don't think the :3: is quite as dismissible as 30-1 ML suggests, but only in the sense that it could round out the tri or super as well as any. It has those wrinkles of late pace interest, and ran fairly good figures in its early races compared with these.

I literally overlooked :4: at first. I wonder if others will too. Among the biggest figs in second and third races, albeit in shallower waters, and then muddied by the Haskell. Hard to see this one beating both the favorites, but a deserving third choice.

I wanted to make a case for the :5: as the least early pace determined, but four of these have greater late pace figs. Last performance maybe propelled by first time gelding. I kind of prefer the :3: as a darker horse.

Maybe a :6:/:2:/:3:,:4: trifecta punch? The :3: is probably an underlay there as the longest shot, and the :4: won't pay much at third, but that's kind of how I see the race.

:6: very live on the tote. May need to rethink my strategy. Or confirm it.

Interesting race. I'll be watching.

But not much betting opportunities IMO.

I went with a blah exacta bet of :2:,:6: / :1:,:4:

Odds will be interesting at Post Time.

Hot damn, what a race!

I mean, they didn't bite each other, but still pretty hot.

I was hoping Life is Good would lose. All it is going to take is one G1 win and Winstar is sending him to stud after the Breeders Cup. If we want any chance to see him at four he has to lose his next couple races.

This one lived up to the hype.

My guess is that Life Is Good was a bit less than 100% today off the long layoff. Even though I am sure they wanted that Grade 1 win today, they may have something bigger in mind down the road. Also interesting will be if Smith keeps the mount.

Great races today! Gotta love Travers Day

Great day in Saratoga, all first class

And if Pletcher keeps the horse.

Yeah , the younger riders are definitely taking over as the older ones tail off. That’s just how sports work. Mike Smith has to be close to my age it’s kind of remarkable he still does that well. That race was not much for betting and as it turned out many of the other races were the same way. The Sword Dancer was probably the most open race in the stakes tab. The only shot I had was Lake Avenue. She made a run but wasn’t gonna catch Gamine and at 18-1 the exacta paid a whopping 12.40. I hit a pick 3 and it paid 29.80 after the Travers. There were a couple of good, close races but it was about as chalky as it can get so I got beat. It definitely was not a good day for finding prices. I believe two horses paid over 5 dollars out of all the stakes races. And those two were not much over that. Not a lot of competition. Betting wise it was the worst Saturday so far .

Who knows what’s going to happen with the Baffert case, how long it’s going to take to resolve, and how some of his owners are going to respond when it’s over.

Over the years you can probably count on one hand the number of times I have criticized a ride. I did not like Smith’s ride. He used the horse hard enough to take a clear lead from Jackie’s Warrior! :eek: Then instead of saving some ground he rode like he was planning on floating some closer way outside or the rail was bad (it clearly wasn’t) and allowed Jackie’s Warrior to cut the corner (giving up a length or more) Then after using the horse to get the lead like that he didn’t start riding again until about the 1/8th pole. Then he started coming back. If I owned that horse I’d feel like he cost me a Grade 1 and have to make a change. Smith is an all time great, but that one shouldn’t be on his resume.

Like I said Mike Smith is almost my age, I’m 58 he’s 56. Try holding a race horse down at any age let alone our age. Have you ever looked closely at any riders arms…….? Even the girls have “Guns”. He’s at the end of a Hall of Fame career. He got outridden plain and simple. It’s the pattern of this entire meet. The younger guys take way more mounts and win more .,,,,, the older guys don’t. The faster the horse the more strength and endurance you need to hold it.

Agreed. It was terrible ride. If he takes the rail after he cleared and made Jackie's Warrior move outside I think he wins.

Life is Good ran well.

He wasn't quite up to his Baffert-level of 'generational talent', but he ran damn well. I didn't notice a significant drift. Galloped out as well.

Jackie's Warrior ran a big race.
Haven't looked at the division, but perhaps to be favored in the BC Sprint?



Surprised to see that the 'Dirt Mile' is still a Grade 1. Is that true??
Seems like a perfect fit for Life is Good.

He's always avoided the rail with the horse, seems by design. Must be a reason.

You might be right about that. LIG has had a tendency to misbehave a bit in the stretch. He could have moved in a path or so and made Rosario think about whether to go inside or outside. That was too easy.

Worse imo was sitting chilly until the 1/8th pole while JW was going past him. If he hadn't gone out so hard early I would say it looked like Smith gave him a prep race. :lol:

I would even have dismissed not going out really hard early given that Jackie's Warrior is ridiculously fast. But once you go and get clear, you can't sit there and allow the other horse to go past you and then start riding. The whole point of using him early was trying to gain the advantage. IMO overall he did worse than give it away. Again, the guy is a great rider. I just didn't like that one at all in a high profile race.

VERY SHARP POST

With a better rider the horse wins by 5, no doubt.

Was the horse even asked for speed the first 5 furlongs, sure didnt seem like it.

Notice the trip comment

LIFE IS GOOD had a post position edge over JACKIES WARRIOR and still lost. what happens the next time when the positions are reversed?

They are heading in different directions...

I would love for there to be a next time but that is not likely to happen. Jackies Warrior will stick to sprinting and Life Is Good will stretch out.

I will say this. With that race under his belt I would take Life Is Good over Jackies Warrior in any sprint no matter the post position.

Wow, that is a VERY BIG deal IMO.

As a former chart caller who wrote the footnotes I would have had to clear with the editor if I made a comment like that.

Not saying it's wrong, in fact it's one of a myriad of things I thought Mike did poorly.

A trouble note like that is very out of character for DRF/EQUIBASE.

VERY bold statement.

Enlighten us on what you think Mike did poorly.

If you choose to go balls to the wall to clear another speed horse. Taking that rival out of his game. Why would you now stay 5 paths off the rail allowing that horse to re-rally back into the game? If LIG had been angled towards the fence JW would have been forced to go around him and IMO never been able to beat him.

The margin of victory was a neck. We all saw JW lay his body down to get there first. Can't imagine him being able to muster enough to make up for the extra ground he "should" have been forced to cover.

Coupled with the urging the two horses were receiving which was all out by Rosario and described as tepid by the DRF Chart Caller regarding Smith.

I don't often knock rides. But this was just awful. Put Rosario on LIG and he wins on that horse. If that's not evidence of a poor ride and bad decision making nothing is.

Here's what the DRF/EQUIBASE footnote said.......

JACKIE'S WARRIOR bobbled slightly at the start, raced two to three wide in pursuit in closest aim of the leader prompting that
rival early on before being shaken off into the turn, came under coaxing at the five-sixteenths and continued two to three wide into
upper stretch closing in on the front, took over narrow command three-sixteenths from home, dug in under a drive in stark contrast
to his main rival who was tepidly handled and gamely prevailed at the finish. LIFE IS GOOD established the front and showed
the way in hand five then four wide down the backstretch before continuing four wide through the turn, slipped away midway on
the turn and was patiently handled through the latter portion of the bend, went four wide into upper stretch, got displaced from
the front at the three-sixteenths while remaining overconfidently handled, got placed to coaxing at the eighth pole and was shown
the crop to the off side through to the finish getting bested on the wire.

that is what horse racing is all about, you get to express your opinion at the windows, this is the real reason why this game is great. Too bad the racing game doesn't know how to take advantage of that.

Mike did not go balls to the wall to clear he established the lead in hand as the footnote said. As for being wide he's been wide in everyone of his races so far and almost all of his works I watched. I did see one work at SA where he came off the turn 2 wide, the jockey put him on the rail and he just exploded threw the stretch running the final 3/16 in 17 flat. My guess would be Mike keeps him wide so he relaxes somewhat and does not run off. No offence but I think Mike knows a little bit more on how to ride Life Is Good than you do.

No offense taken.

He may or may not know more about riding LIG than me.

Whether he does or not. IMO opinion the tactics he chose Saturday were a total disaster and the horse lost as a result.

The chart says 21.4 & 44 flat. He may have been in hand around the turn and into the stretch. But to my eye he looked to be sending, trying to clear for the first 2 or 3 hundred yards. Sitting still on a horse that fast "after" you got him rolling isn't rating. 44 flat is 44 flat regardless of what you're doing.

Truth be told when I saw what he was doing I thought it made sense. JW is all speed. Clear a speed horse, one that's always in front and you can take him out of his game. Throw some dirt in his race. I thought it was going to be a good strategy.

But then staying out wide wasted any tactical advantage he had gained. Put pressure on. Make a horse do something different. MAKE HIM GO FREAKEN AROUND. Rather than letting him re-engage like they were working in company.

Many are making a big deal about how he urged him though the stretch. Just showing him the whip. I saw only one true overhanded strike with the crop. I don't care much about that. He may very well know his mount doesn't respond favorably to heavy whipping. Maybe it's counterproductive. It's not a great visual if the horse loses. However, that aspect isn't for me to say.

Question: Do you think if the jockeys were reversed and Rosario had ridden LIG he would have won the race? I do, and I think the great majority of racing fans and bettors would agree.

One final note, just because I'm 6'4" 310 and have never ridden a race. Doesn't mean I don't know as much or more about that skill set than many who do it.

No
 

I heard on the broadcast that I think it was Life Is Good just had all aluminum shoes put on all around did I hear wrong? they said something might be wrong to make such a change.. Anybody have any input on that ? I'm just an old fart in the wind -- don't know much - so go ahead and insult me. I bet small and I bet JW so there's that.

Stuball

They mentioned Gamine had one, which I think she has had for a while but only NYRA gives that information. I don't remember hearing anything about Life Is Good.

Forget the whip. He didn't even start legitimately hand riding until the 1/8th pole.

I had a flashback to a prep race Forego once had at 7F. He was very wide all the way, Forego had the horse in front of him measured, and then he was hand ridden the last 1/8th to wear down the opposition and win. The only difference is that LIG is not Forego and this was a Grade 1 race. That's something LIP hasn't won yet that would look great on his resume in the event he doesn't win one later.

The entire thing felt like a prep race to me. It was like Pletcher said "We have bigger fish to fry later, get a good race into him, but don't kill him first race off the bench to win". I could almost live with all that even though it was a Grade 1 race. But if that's the case, don't use your horse hard enough to clear a horse like JW early and then sit until the 1/8th pole. Sit off him from the start, teach him something, and then finish. If you lose, OK.

I thought it was more of prep race as well. I have no problem with the ride given that it was prep race and he most likely was not 100% coming off the layoff. Looking at his 1st 3 races Life Is Good was in front every call so I was not expecting Mike to try anything different at least intentionally. I'm sure they would have loved to get the win but they got what they wanted which was a very good race into him.

Let's try your theory. Sit off Jackies Warrior from the start, teach him something and finish. Let's say it works to a tea and he get's beat. You have a bunch of people saying what a fool Mike was how could he just hand the lead to Jackies Warrior, he wasn't trying to win the race. If you try that strategy and it goes poorly you probably don't get anything out of the race and people still bitching about Mike's ride.