Two year old races
 

For the last year and a half, I have been getting back into the swing of horse racing after a 40 year + layoff working for a living. As such, I am starting out handicapping and betting young horses only. At Saratoga, I have been betting a lot of two year old races with multiple FTS. What tools do you use when studying FTS? I have my list and the priority that I use, but what do others use to evaluate two year old races in addition to FTS?

I try to watch works on XBTV or the sale works (you can find works even if horse didn’t sell e.g. the 7 in 1st at Saratoga today)

That is an excellent site, I am playing Sweeping Giant and saw him work against his Dam. Maggie prefers the 2-1 favorite Doctor Davis, but I am sticking with the Curlin offspring Sweeping Giant.

How has this been working out for you?

FTS FACTORS.....

1. No other horse has run within 2 lengths of par

2. Sire FTS stats at least 11%
3. Trainer FTS stats at least 11%

4. Good workout within last 3-4 weeks
-bullet work
-bullet work that was a full second faster than the next one - double credit
-at 4 furlongs, in top 10% of at least 10 total workouts for the day
-at 5 furlongs, in top 20% of at least 10 total workouts for the day

I am not losing a ton of money, so not bad. I've had five winners and two seconds in 12 total races. The list I played is below. I was checking this morning and had I just stuck to win bets, I'd be ahead. I bet progressively more to place and show and that is where I lose money. I am reconsidering how to bet them.


Microbiome
Echo Zulu
Tough Street
Chattalot
Headline Report
Coinage
Good Skate
Chileno
Miss Interpret
Raw Courage
LaoBan's Legacy
Sweeping Giant

Looking at race two at Saratoga today, it looks like seven fillies will hit the lawn.

Silvery Rill and Barrett both appear to have the pedigree needed to win at this level. Blissful is another FTS who wouldn't be much of a surprise. Waterville out of Kitten's Joy could be dangerous. I bet Sweeping Giant yesterday and a Kitten's Joy offspring (Limited Liability) bested my horse for the win.

I watched the Silvery Rill workout on the site mentioned and she looked good working. Usually, I wait to see them in the paddock before betting but I have an event to go to today, so will sneak a bet in later.

Mick - They are not always right but if you watch Spa Babies at Saratoga on the DRF site, Nicole and Dan can offer some insight. Nicole is very knowledgeable about breeding.

Thanks Bennie.

I like Dan very much but I haven't seen Nicole before. The latest video I see on youtube was the race I took Raw Courage. Do you know if there is a more recent video on the DRF page? I couldn't find a section for Spa Babies.

The stats on FTS suggest that those that get bet are less likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than their win odds suggest. They tend to be more all or nothing than the typical horse probably due to gate and greenness issues. But the public is pretty sharp and bets them accordingly.

Yes, I see that there is a lot more information available today about FTS and lightly raced horses than back in the day. That is why there are fewer great odds on logical firsters.

What I like about these races is that those sharp handicappers that rely on computer statistics are less likely to be interested in these baby races. Pace scenarios are very unpredictable when you have 4-5 FTS in a race.

Mick - go to DRF.com , click on news and info at the top , then click on drf.tv. Just scroll down from there.

That worked like a charm. They put on a good show with insight about the two year olds.

Thanks

-Mick

Thanks to everyone for the help thus far. I was looking over race three today and checked work out videos and Dan Illman solo on Spa babies. Dan more or less confirmed most of what I had analyzed and added some pedigree information that I couldn't find.

I have whittled the race down to my final four:

1. Sire side is new but appears to be hot with FTS.
2. Nyquist as sire and a very fast 3F early workout.
3. Last race was very good and experience is on her side.
4. Her workout on the grass visually impressed me.

BreezeFigs, were are included in DRF Plus subscriptions, are very good.

You know, I looked at them over the weekend and the was one Toga horse listed in the A group - it won an paid $14+

Race one today is a good one but not a good one to hone in on a horse.

Yes, Boston Flagship ran well while rank at the distance but in a slow time so he has a leg up on others but can be beat. You have some Irish (Motion) and Australian (Ward) blood in two horses. You have some expensive horse flesh. And you have two who sprinted well and are stretching out today.

It's a toss up who I will take but whoever it is, he will be a price.

Race one today will no doubt be dominated by the Klaravich entry, in particular the Frankel filly McKulick but also Consumer Spending. I would be loathe to bet against Chad Brown and these two.

Load up your dollars and collect your nickels on these two.

Race six, I put an early bet on Popular Vote but scratched it when I saw her warm up. She appeared to be a head case in the warm up very similar to her first race throwing her head around.

I didn't bet and probably for the best as I never would have bet Dream Lith, except for the Diodoro factor.

Al

Your site is great, I had a NY bred 12-1 shot today named Daufuskie Island thanks to watching XBTV. I wish they had more works to view but I was visually impressed with Daufuskie's solo workout.

Thanks man!

-Mick

Sheet, Andy Sterling called me a red boarder last night for saying I bet Daufuskie. I was upset that he and Mr. Stabile seemed to mail in their selections for that race, I should have left it at that.

So today I post that I like Sue Ellen Mishkin ten minutes before post to prove I am no red boarder.

TLG certainly doesn't need me chiming into his biz.......but.....I have to ask......why were you upset about a selection he and Anthony Stabile made ?
How could that bother you ?
And...
How would you know they were mailing it in ? :confused:

Physicality. My best superfecta scores have been on lightly raced horses and I wagered based on physicality only.

i am going with GENERAL STRIKE in today's 6th race at the spa... i thought the horse was going to run about 3 months ago looking at the work tab, but he does show up today. i can only speculate that the horse could have bucked shins. the participants in the race look pretty dam tough as well.
watch him carefully in the paddock and on the track with tremendous NYRA feed (best track and paddock view anywhere). i was trying to pick something up with the Ellis feed yesterday, and that feed is not in the same solar system.

I think one of these outside horses wins it...9 10 11 12

make sure to get a good price

GB

I like :1::2::9::10:

but also use physically to add and subtract horses from my list, especially with so many never having raced.

$0.10 Superfecta (2-9-1-10) Paid $64.00

:ThmbUp:

I looked over the race beforehand carefully. The two horses with experience seemed pretty slow. Gimmedamoney was way back early in his first race and gained a little late. In his second race, he ran better early but not fast and the other horse they liked (Juggler) who was behind him. They both liked these two and picked a Chad Brown FTS in third. They barely spoke of another horse.

As to why I care, two words Quality Control. The show is a favorite of mine and I hope they keep standards high.

As to how I knew, I did y analysis and thought there were three horses better than theirs and two of them were ITM. They failed to mention horse stats and workouts that seemed significant to me. Usually, they are on top of stats and works but not that race.

I stunk it up today in the Saratoga Special. I totally dismissed the winner High Oak. He barely beat a horse first out, named Labarde, who ran twice since and ran up the track. I took the chalk thinking speed was ruling and he could break free on the turn. He had to work early to get a small lead and never could show the speed he had first out.

Back to reality.

He was a toss for me especially as the chalk. He won an off the turf race. Had an easy lead and only one start vs some horses who have run 2 or 3 races There was no way he was going to get that here against this group with the 2 horse being in there. The 2 ran a great race being on the lead and holding on for 2nd.

I totally agree about Gunite. He was my third choice because of his improvement. Brigadier General stunk it up last week, or he would have been in my top two picks.

I think Nakatomi ran well too, His one hole pp didn't help him early (if you watch the head on view, you will lose him coming out of the chute and he had to correct for that. That and the fact that he returned from Europe and dusted off some rust from the trip made it a tad difficult yesterday.

I wish I knew that Doctor Jeff's first race was scheduled for turf. It's easier to win on dirt if you are running against turf horses.

Not a bad start with a 2 year old race.

Attachment 30161

All good things come to an end, I swung big in race 2 with a live longshot Baj (32-1). He led to close to a mile but the race had another sixteenth to go and he finished a little tired in 4th place.

The other horses I liked ran 1-2, but I took a swing to win only looking for a big return. You never know when one of those will hit. (I had a 17-1 and 12-1 shot win this week).

He looked a little better on Thorograph than on other sets of figures, but he wasn't easy to come up with unless you were smart enough to project significant improvement off his recent much better works 2nd time out for Mott.

I find these 2yo stakes races especially tough now that they are basically often glorified NW1 allowance races. You know that some of the horses are going to jump up either from development or because they'll get a pace more favorable to putting up a big number and you know some of the horses with big numbers are just cheap speed that will fold if they are challenged or outrun to the lead. But it's not so easy to know which is which. One of the best clues is usually the connections, but there's not much value there.

When Mott's horse wins first time out especially with 2 year olds you have to think it will run even better next time out. He rarely has them fully cranked going first time out.

Yes, thanks to you and classhanidcapper, I am learning about trainers. Some have them ready to fire first out and others allow the horse to develop in a race or two. I heard Rusty Arnold is like that, allowing his 2 year olds to develop.

I think I've had more success in non-handicap races than the handicap ones.

I learned something yesterday that benefitted me today. Yesterday, a horse named Friend had four so so races at FanDuel (Fairmont Park). He surprised me when he ran second to the logical favorite and while I didn't bet, I wasn't going to bet him. In my notes, I said the horse had to be fittest of the bunch because of having four races and most others were FTS.

Today, I played two horses with good experience facing mostly FTS. Gromleys got Game paid $24 to win and Venice Beach paid $18 winning by a whisker over a FTS 3-2 shot.

Good job!!!

Develop some specific part of the game and you'll be OK...

By the way....Rusty Arnold is still around?

Mike

Race #3 today at Saratoga, Rusty has a (Nyquist) horse that I don't favor today, but could surprise or develop later named Lockstep. I will post my analysis

Race #3 at Saratoga
 

1. Pout - She's had three tries, the last two at $100K, seems to have been working on her speed not stamina. That said, you have to give this one credit for not taking the easy road and running against the best. She lost to On the ones and twos and Microbiome, who were the top two choices in the Adriondack. She didn't compete close to them but didn't disgrace herself against two fillies in the top ten of the country. If this $80K group seems weaker, she could find her spot.

2. Sea Pines - A FTS son of Connect. Dam (9 1-0-0) earned $42K. Siblings won (21 3-3-4) but not a lot of money. Connect's first crop are decent as sprinting (41 6-4-13) and 18% FTS. Trainer is 20% FTS. Decent workouts and I saw one that looked pretty decent (on lead against a son of Gun Runner). She could be ready to fire on debut.

3. Lockstep - Tried the lawn unsuccessfully for Rusty Arnold, I recall hearing he allows his young horses time to develop. He broke in a little took a light bump, looked green as hell the first 100 yards, fell back and took a lot of kickback from something other than grass (must have been real dry). He was faster than two horses and seemed to have a little more energy way back. He gets Jose O. and I wouldn't be surprised if a daughter of Nyquist fares better on dirt 2nd out than turf 1st out. You also get the turf to dirt angle with this one. Trust in rust.

4. Morning Matcha - He has two races, the last at Saratoga was restricted and a good one. First out saw her start slow against two good horses in Next Tuesday and Mainstay. She was never competitive or close to those two but finished well to nip another for third. Her second at Saratoga saw her slow of foot early again and last going into the turn. She passed 4 horses coming out of the turn and then showed a powerful turn of foot seemingly gaining a half length each stride. No doubt that finish is why she is the ML 2-1 favorite.

5. Fiftyshadesofrun - A son of Mineshaft had a decent start at Parx. She stalked the leader but could never make progress, more like idling in the stretch then tiring as the leader pulled away and a stretch runner passed her for second. Could she improve off that? Yes, but she would appear to be overmatched by at least two of the aforementioned horses.

6. G Money Liv - Another horse with one restricted race with poor performance. She was no matcha for Matcha in her first start but she didn't embarrass herself. her style was very similar to Matcha, running slow and green early, she led Matcha out of the turn and she encountered interference, with her head tilted. She gets blinkers today and Irad who wants that title bad. Second out she may get a faster start but can she improve enough to hold off Matcha at the longer distance.

7. Call Sign Charlie - A FTS son of Mission Impazible. Dam race record (11 3-0-2) earned $128K and won the AP Lassie stakes second out. Her offspring overall (31 1-0-5) and sprinting (8 0-0-2) have been a disappointment thus far. Sire 13% and 10% FTS is ok. Jorge is amazing 25% FTS. And she has had good works at Saratoga. She is the 9-2 ML third choice.

8. Love Unlimited - Another horse with a poor first performance. She broke ok, took a couple of love taps from an outside horse early, started falling back after a furlong, was last going into the turn, got encouragement to run while along the rail but could only pass one tired horse. I cannot recommend off that performance, but for those of you inclined to like her: Her breeding didn't suggest grass, so dirt may be better, she may have had something the team corrected since last race (though it is not apparent what) there may be some magic the trainer has worked on her. She is a hard NO for me.

9. Monshun - A FTS son of Unified. The 5-2 ML second choice. Dam record (13 3-0-2) earned $56K and won her MSW at Kee, but dropped to claiming later. The sibling sprint record (61 6-10-10) with the best earning $3K a race. Unified is a young and hot sire of dirt sprinters (17 6-3-3) and Sire to two Stakes winners (Behave Virginia and Roger McQueen) out of his first 10 starters. Trainer is 5% FTS. This one has a workout pattern I like, fast, then slow, fast then slow, primed for fast, so lookout.