how serious do you take destin
 

i guess you have to respect the TB derby more than ever. but destin's path looks cheap. outlook and brody came back to run big as well and makes destin even more attractive.

i just wish he would have taken a better prep

He raced very well in Tampa, broke the track record too, but the 8 week layoff & this horse never ran 1 1/8 mile. Scary to think he can win with 2 big angles against him, but its a matter of time before all the angles are broken.

I wish he had had another prep, but this group is so bad, he probably never really needed it.

Strong contender.

He's the fastest horse coming in and I'm of the opinion that you can't let a horse like that beat you out of the verticals and horizontals, considering the pools on derby day. He won't be one of the favorites either so you have more of a cushion against a possible bounce...

Keying him however is a different story... I'd be interested to hear if anyone is considering doing this

To me he's the Biggest mystery of the race.Off his race in tampa he looked like he was on course.Then TAP decided the race was too good and decided to layoff.He had no works for 3 weeks and now has 2 works of 4 and a 5f. 3 weeks to go and no long works so far. Last year in a radio interview He said his horses run best after 5-6 weeks off.if he gets 7f like AP did and is Sharp who knows. As of now I' m not sure.

destin is the kind of horse i usually like.

but it seems w/ each passing year trainers just want to avoid anything to get to the derby. or take the easy road to get there. i get that. but imo this raises more flags.

you don't usually equate the TB derby winner as a legit Ken derby horse unless they follow it up w/ nice G1 run after it..not racing destin in one of the races bothers me. it just screams we're happy to be here and we don't want to be exposed..yet.

but this argument loses some credibility as his tb deby was won in record fashion, and outlook won the wood, albeit barely against an 81-1 maiden.

you really have to like outlook as well because of it. and you almost have to use him as well in a box together.....and if you're thinking along those lines,you have to bump up the maiden that almost won at 80-1...but i'm sure most people won't

Somebody pointed out to me last year that Pletcher's horses perform the best in the Derby after coming off 3 weeks rest. I crunched the numbers after he said that and he was right;

He's ran 19 horses in the Derby off of a 3 week rest and has finished in the super 7 times (1-2-2-2 record) with them. He's ran 22 horses in the Derby off of a rest of 4 or more weeks and he only has but a single 3rd place finish to show for it by Revolutionary a few years ago (0-0-1-0 record). Two other runners of his ran off of a rest of less than 3 weeks.

His preference may be to rest his horses longer and the results may back it up in other races. But in the Derby itself it seems like 3 weeks rest is best for his horses and their results.

I'm skeptical of horses setting track records at 8.5F finishing fast at 10F. I'm also skeptical of any Storm Cat sire line as one has yet to win. I will continue not using on the top until one beats me. Beyond that, he looked good in Tampa has a couple oddball angles so I cannot entirely throw out of a tri bet. He has 28 dosage points but none in the solid or professional categories. His DI and CD are indicative of a horse that could run far and something I'd throw a few bucks at in the Belmont. He is female family 1-g. Family 1 has done well in the Derby but the 1-g not so much. I think only Impeachment hit the board 15 years ago. He has one of the better Beyer figures as well. I have Materiality fresh in my mind which doesn't help.

my gut says stay away. but sadly,..i've played worse horses in the KD derby..and if i'm looking for 5 horses will i really be able to pick one/two that doesn't have any less questions that i feel good about?

the racing pattern is crap and i think they're hiding him, because they can. i think destin NOT running speaks bigger volumes than the TR he set in the TB derby...to top it off, when was the last wood winner relevant in the KD?

The horse never went more than 8.5 furlongs 8 weeks off no works for 3 weeks after his last race.Now they want him to go 1 1/4 against 20 horses. Seems like a tough task.I can see him in it until the last eighth then fading.

http://gallery.mobile-phones.com.pk/..._thumb_330.jpg

sadly i want to ignore things i shouldn't ignore and use him on my ticket because the unknown and possible outcome is stronger than the likely outcome

I may have already said this but before you know it Todd Pletcher is going to have multiple derby wins under his belt. With the lack of a strong field maybe he picks up a win this year.

Since its Still 2 weeks to go.I think it I' ll wait until race day before making any definitive judgements on anybody.

I would not be surprised if Destin gets the 1 1/4 miles, and finishes it well. With 2 weeks, to go a lot can be done in that time period to sharpen his form. His pedigree says he can get the distance without much problem, it's just a matter of having him in peak form come Derby Day. 3 year olds, at a new distance, new track and surface for most, new surroundings and distractions, 20 horses in the gate and trying to get some position by the 1st turn, anything can, and often does, happen. Nothing will surprise me too much in the Derby.

I am also waiting to see if Destin and some others held their weight or even filled out and physically matured. 8 weeks is a good amount of time for a growth spurt.