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-   Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=96)
-   -   Stock Market Prediction (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133768)

Robert Fischer 10-02-2016 05:40 PM

this is the big one
 
going to have to put nets around all the tall office buildings

delayjf 10-03-2016 05:33 PM

A Pirates Looks at 50
 
All this gold, I'm buy a parrot, getting my crew together and yo-ho, yo-ho the pirates life for me. :cool:

whodoyoulike 10-03-2016 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

I think J Dimon reads this site for ideas. If he is reading today's ... You're Welcome.

Quote:

... "They have plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity," Dimon said during an telephone interview on CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "We want all these banks to get through because it's better for everybody."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/jpmor...-problems.html

Valuist 10-03-2016 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

OK, smart ass, here's the parameter: 18 months.

classhandicapper 10-03-2016 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.

A lot depends on your investment style.

If you are a day trader you have to be right within hours.

If you are at the other end of the spectrum (like me), several years is fine.

Then there is everything else in between.

Also, there could very well be new information that will cause me to take a less conservative stance.

barahona44 10-03-2016 08:27 PM

Don't those "The World is coming to an end" sandwich boards hurt your shoulders after a while? :)

sammy the sage 10-03-2016 08:33 PM

Replay Randle or Barn...either one could be right...the CORRUPT FED will determine...

Cheap money continues...Japan scenario....market keeps UP...artificially...like the LAST decade......not cheap...start raising rates...crashes....

not connected enough to know...and even those that are connected...so they THINK...some will GET sunk...

Tape Reader 10-03-2016 10:27 PM

When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

If it’s Hillary, anyone that has been following the market will know that “This will be the day that the music died”. Apologies to Don McLean.

All of Wall St. is so conditioned to “SELL!” when rates move higher. Makes no difference economically, they know this has been a Fed induced rally and the “music” of musical chairs has stopped.

Once the election is over, the jig is up.

P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

ReplayRandall 10-03-2016 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tape Reader
P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.

The OP of this thread prefers it stays here....;)

Parkview_Pirate 10-04-2016 08:51 AM

While I'm as bearish as the next person who understands basic arithmetic, I'm a bit skeptical the markets dive prior to the election unless TPTB would prefer Trump in the White House. The last big swoon in 2008/2009 seemed to correlate with the Fed drawing down excess liquidity. Not sure if they still have that kind of juice, but must assume so until proven otherwise. The global aspect and central bank coordination makes this bubble a bit different than ones in the past.

The doomsday market plunge view seems to be an awfully crowded trade as well, where as in the summer of 2008 there were fewer bears sounding the alarm.

With a due respect to RR, I'd anticipate the next plunge in the markets to coincide with a major war - which IMHO, would occur within 15 minutes or so of The Hag being sworn in....

Saratoga_Mike 10-04-2016 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tape Reader
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

.

How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."

barn32 10-04-2016 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."

Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

classhandicapper 10-04-2016 01:34 PM

I added a little to my gold mining shares this morning.

AndyC 10-04-2016 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barn32
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.

Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?

barahona44 10-04-2016 05:12 PM

I can see the market grinding to a 15 to 20 percent drop over the next year.Remember, it's been essentially flat (just 1 % higher) than it was 20 months ago, so that has already cooled off some of the excessive speculation.IMHO, 40 to 50 percent drops are unlikely .Negative predictions are always given more weight than positive ones.Nostradamus is taken more seriously than Pollyanna.Must be a psychological thang


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