| Dave Schwartz |
03-16-2018 06:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
(Post 2290851)
4% whale handle.
Doubt it gets that low, or anything like it
If that were true , any decent handicapper would mint money
|
The pools are massive at SA compared to (say) MNR. |
| green80 |
03-16-2018 06:38 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jahura2
(Post 2290692)
In everyone's experience are there any tracks that are less "whale watched"? Or are all tracks being watched from Aqueduct to Zia Park?
|
Yes, there are less whale friendly tracks, Oaklawn is one that comes to mind. Just check around the adw's and see which tracks have the lowest rebates and the whales tend to avoid those. The tracks with a very low handle are not to the whale's benefit either. Whales bet where they think they have an advantage, do do you homework and you will see which tracks to avoid. |
| green80 |
03-16-2018 06:46 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
(Post 2290681)
this isn't the CRW. they don't have access to the pools after the races start, its simply someone that does have access, someone and somewhere we don't know yet. someone is getting live c-band feeds and taking advantage of the game.
all this game needs to do is nothing to stop after the bell, or for the non-believers, the perception of after the bell going on and it will continue to die a slow death.
|
How much of an advantage would a live c band feed give? Is it seconds, a minute, more? Then you still have to get the bet in and if the ADW's are shut out how does one get the bet in? Do some whales have a direct hook up to the tracks? Just trying to understand how this works. |
| AltonKelsey |
03-16-2018 09:27 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
(Post 2290888)
The pools are massive at SA compared to (say) MNR.
|
This we know. I expect the whales also know this, and bet accordingly, increasing their handle along with the pool size. 4% , even 10% would be leaving a lot on the table.
It can't be 4%. Bet its 15-20% |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
(Post 2290948)
This we know. I expect the whales also know this, and bet accordingly, increasing their handle along with the pool size. 4% , even 10% would be leaving a lot on the table.
It can't be 4%. Bet its 15-20%
|
Wouldn't it be harder to find an edge with a higher effective takeout, which I'm sure SoCal tracks have? |
| AltonKelsey |
03-17-2018 01:08 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2290999)
Wouldn't it be harder to find an edge with a higher effective takeout, which I'm sure SoCal tracks have?
|
I concede that, but there's also the much greater liquidity to consider making for higher NET profits, which is all that really matters. You can't actually spend a higher ROI. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
(Post 2291003)
I concede that, but there's also the much greater liquidity to consider making for higher NET profits, which is all that really matters. You can't actually spend a higher ROI.
|
No doubt, I'm just saying percentage wise the amount would be smaller if edges are harder to find. That percentage, though, would obviously be a much higher dollar amount than a bigger percentage at a smaller track. |
| jocko699 |
03-17-2018 03:52 PM |
R2 today at SA. I put a couple of bucks on first time starter :2:Lucky Val with Tiago up. Horse goes off 16-1 , stays 16-1 the entire race, and he wins and than it changes to 15-1 and pays $32.20.
|
| green80 |
03-17-2018 05:15 PM |
anybody ever seen the winner go up in price? I heard a million stories like this where the winner drops after the wire but never one where the winner went up in price. If these guys aren't past posting they sure are on the winner 99.9% of the time.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
(Post 2291288)
anybody ever seen the winner go up in price? I heard a million stories like this where the winner drops after the wire but never one where the winner went up in price. If these guys aren't past posting they sure are on the winner 99.9% of the time.
|
Of course there are some that go up in price. There are some high profile guys on twitter that point them out. But the percentage is highly in favor of horses dropping in odds. This doesn't mean it is past posting. It means the late money is the smartest money, which isn't really a surprise. |
| jay68802 |
03-17-2018 06:20 PM |
It happens, and more than people think it does. within the last 2 weeks I played a exacta that went from $25.00 to $32.00 and had a horse at Golden Gate win, and go from 6-1 to 8-1 and paid 12-1. Want to help your game? Follow the late money at your track. Profile the horses the late money goes on. You will find some are easy to spot. Today at Tampa a horse I played won and went from 7-1 to 5-1. The nice thing is that I bet more money anticipating the drop in odds. You are also going to learn what trainers are connected to the late money. Suprise, surprise, the late money has some pretty good connections.
|
| Dave Schwartz |
03-17-2018 08:15 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by [B
cj[/B];2291294]Of course there are some that go up in price. There are some high profile guys on twitter that point them out. But the percentage is highly in favor of horses dropping in odds. This doesn't mean it is past posting. It means the late money is the smartest money, which isn't really a surprise.
|
Please listen to this voice of reason.
It is absolutely dead on the money.
And why do the odds move more today than they did 20+ years ago? Because a gigantic percentage of the late bet money is concentrated in a handful of people.
If that money was spread over even a few hundred people instead of certainly less than 10, there would be more variation.
Now, here's the final piece: When a particular track has a big "favorite day" the big boys lose money because the pie was sliced too many ways. That is, they were in agreement and killed each other's prices.
I hope that makes sense.
Dave |
| dasch |
03-18-2018 02:50 PM |
Santa Anita Sunday Race 1.......
The 4 is 5-1 early 12 seconds into the race then her number goes out of the top 4
Comes flying down the stretch.....new odds 5-2
Perception is HORRIBLE, how do you explain THAT to a new fan?
|
| dilanesp |
03-18-2018 03:29 PM |
The fact that late money is smart money is a big reason to do something about large wagers near post time. They are obviously creating an information asymmetry by betting at the last second.
The fundamental problem has got to be that the tracks don't want to lose this handle. If that were not the case there are things that could be done.
|
| thaskalos |
03-18-2018 03:42 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch
(Post 2291648)
Santa Anita Sunday Race 1.......
The 4 is 5-1 early 12 seconds into the race then her number goes out of the top 4
Comes flying down the stretch.....new odds 5-2
Perception is HORRIBLE, how do you explain THAT to a new fan?
|
What "new fan"? |
| jay68802 |
03-18-2018 03:45 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
(Post 2291670)
What "new fan"?
|
All the "sports bettors" that are going to wager on horse racing when it becomes legal. |
| thaskalos |
03-18-2018 04:05 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2291672)
All the "sports bettors" that are going to wager on horse racing when it becomes legal.
|
Don't you mean it the other way around? :) |
| Dave Schwartz |
03-18-2018 05:31 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
(Post 2291662)
The fact that late money is smart money is a big reason to do something about large wagers near post time. They are obviously creating an information asymmetry by betting at the last second.
The fundamental problem has got to be that the tracks don't want to lose this handle. If that were not the case there are things that could be done.
|
Typical horse player mentality would be to think that the later I bet, the more it improves my chances.
:lol:
It only improves your chances if you have a way to improve your selections late. |
At this point it might be more fair if nobody knew the odds until pools were closed.
|
| thaskalos |
03-18-2018 05:50 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
(Post 2291742)
Typical horse player mentality would be to think that the later I bet, the more it improves my chances.
:lol:
It only improves your chances if you have a way to improve your selections late.
|
IMO...the average horseplayer would benefit greatly if he waited until the last seconds to place his bets. He would save a ton of money by repeatedly getting shut out of the wagering. |
| jay68802 |
03-18-2018 06:02 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
(Post 2291680)
Don't you mean it the other way around? :)
|
You are correct, I was Posting Under The Influence again.;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
(Post 2291742)
Typical horse player mentality would be to think that the later I bet, the more it improves my chances.
:lol:
It only improves your chances if you have a way to improve your selections late.
|
And if you did not catch the 11th at GP today you missed a easy one that paid 4-1. It ended up taking 16% of the last dump. |
This one was as bad as I've seen in a while, and of course the horse won.
|
| AltonKelsey |
03-21-2018 04:47 PM |
I don't have the pp's for that , but the horse was 15-1 on the ML , won last, and was ridden by an Ortiz.
Clearly , some serious steam there.
But plenty of those lose, just never get mentioned. So it leaves the impression that big betdowns are locks.
Some big bettors find out that the horse is 110% and they send it in. Just a matter of how much they want to crush their own odds.
|
| Lafecs |
03-21-2018 05:03 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
(Post 2292628)
I don't have the pp's for that , but the horse was 15-1 on the ML , won last, and was ridden by an Ortiz.
Clearly , some serious steam there.
But plenty of those lose, just never get mentioned. So it leaves the impression that big betdowns are locks.
Some big bettors find out that the horse is 110% and they send it in. Just a matter of how much they want to crush their own odds.
|
That’s not steam. That’s Ortiz’s uncle paying for his new BMW. . .:) |
| AltonKelsey |
03-21-2018 08:10 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafecs
(Post 2292640)
That’s not steam. That’s Ortiz’s uncle paying for his new BMW. . .:)
|
Could be, I know I was born into the wrong family, no jockeys. |
| jay68802 |
03-21-2018 09:01 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2292616)
|
Took 43.4 percent of the money from when they put the 1st horse in the gate. Or 7/5. |
| acorn54 |
03-21-2018 09:24 PM |
we live in a capitalistic country. if you don't like the rules that the racing authorities want to offer, don't accept them. move on caveat emptor.
|
| cutchemist42 |
03-21-2018 10:33 PM |
And posters here claim its not a problem and that they can predict it........
Im so glad to be back on Betfair.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
(Post 2292726)
we live in a capitalistic country. if you don't like the rules that the racing authorities want to offer, don't accept them. move on caveat emptor.
|
Sadly, many people have moved on. |
| Prioress Ply |
03-22-2018 05:54 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
(Post 2292726)
we live in a capitalistic country. if you don't like the rules that the racing authorities want to offer, don't accept them. move on caveat emptor.
|
Great attitude that has served the industry so well. |
| lamboguy |
03-22-2018 04:53 PM |
they just got me good in the 9th at Gulfstream. i bet way before the race thinking the horse was going to come from just off the pace. he opens up 5 and odds drop in half from 16-1 to 8-1.
what a tough game and i try to stay away from early speed.
|
| Denny |
03-22-2018 05:22 PM |
Investigation on GP?
There are just too many occurrences at Gulfstream Park for them to be anomalies. There's got to be something crooked going on.
Someone needs to launch an investigation into the goings-on there.
But, who???
Who's responsibility is it to protect the public from this?
The racing media seems to be turning a blind eye. (HRI for example online. Don't want to lose those advertising dollars JP?)
|
| PaceAdvantage |
03-22-2018 05:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
(Post 2290201)
Anyone can get the exacta matrix. I'm losing hair reading the constant rebuttals from people in the industry against the claim "people have direct access to the tote". Perhaps some one has some magical terminal to read odds changes quicker than you or I can (directly from the tote), but I have yet to see anyone post ANY proof that ANY bettor has access to the tri/super/p3/etc matrices.
It's getting to the point where I'm convinced most (all?) of the people who are complaining are losers searching for a boogyman.
|
It would be very simple for someone to post an anonymous video of such a thing, if it exists.
I'm betting it never surfaces...or if it does, it's a hoax video...:pound: |
| PaceAdvantage |
03-22-2018 05:28 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
(Post 2290267)
Has nothing to do with better handicapping and everything to do with someone consistently being allowed to bet after the masses do. Let's say you're the best handicapper in the world and I'm just very good, you know a horse should be 2-1 and it's 7-2 at zero MTP. You of course place your bet, now they're loading and I'm able to sit at the hub with a hook in the system, when the gates pop I know this horse is actually closer to 3-1 at that moment and the windows will lockout in say 5-10 seconds. The difference at this point isn't handicapping, the difference is my advantage when betting this late, you're a sitting duck now, you have no defense.
I simply bet just enough to take the horse down to 2-1. Let's say you're correct and long-term this horse wins at 2-1, you break-even at best and I break-even plus I get a big rebate check. These people will rarely end up getting paid back less than their odds-line, for everyone else it's inevitable to land on too many underlays, especially at tracks like Mountaineer where an absurd 48% of the pool is coming in after 0 MTP.
|
What's stopping you from sitting in front of your PC at your favorite ADW (especially one that accepts batch wagering), and dumping tons of bets into the system as they are loading into the gate...thereby "being allowed to bet after the masses do."
You can do it too...what's stopping you? |
| PaceAdvantage |
03-22-2018 05:29 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
(Post 2290272)
sorry you are 100% wrong. if you are a $25 million a year bettor, i will be able to get you a consul that hooks up directly to the tote. if you are that bettor please contact me, i will be more than happy to get you hooked up.
|
If this is true, then you'll be able to explain to me, in great detail, EXACTLY WHAT BEING "HOOKED UP DIRECTLY TO THE TOTE" means...EXACTLY.
I'm hooked up to the tote too...:pound: |
| PaceAdvantage |
03-22-2018 05:30 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
(Post 2290301)
What does this mean? It's repeated over and over and over and over again
|
Man, you sound just like me...I was having this argument on here just a few weeks ago, saying the exact same things you are saying...
I'll give you a word of advice...don't waste your time.
People are going to believe whatever it is that makes them feel better. |
| PaceAdvantage |
03-22-2018 05:42 PM |
So Dave says with one of those terminals (or something like it), you get a "Tick Feed" of the bets...kind of like a stock market? You get to see the individual bets come through? You get to see, perhaps, what the highest individual win bet has been on a particular horse?
Pretty cool...is that what lambo means when he says you'll get things that will blow you away?
That wouldn't really blow me away. It's kind of cool, but that's about it.
|
| lamboguy |
03-22-2018 05:48 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
(Post 2293170)
If this is true, then you'll be able to explain to me, in great detail, EXACTLY WHAT BEING "HOOKED UP DIRECTLY TO THE TOTE" means...EXACTLY.
I'm hooked up to the tote too...:pound:
|
i believe it means you are hooked into the host track directly without going through a hub. |
| JerryBoyle |
03-22-2018 05:53 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
(Post 2293175)
So Dave says with one of those terminals (or something like it), you get a "Tick Feed" of the bets...kind of like a stock market? You get to see the individual bets come through? You get to see, perhaps, what the highest individual win bet has been on a particular horse?
Pretty cool...is that what lambo means when he says you'll get things that will blow you away?
That wouldn't really blow me away. It's kind of cool, but that's about it.
|
From Dave's description, I don't think you got any special or new data that you couldn't get by scraping an ADW's site. You just get it at the time it's being aggregated from all tracks before being disseminated to the ADW's. Basically you're hooking in to the hub that the ADW's are hooked in to.
That being said, I don't believe that's where the advantage is coming from for the successful large players. My roi wouldn't suddenly skyrocket if I got access to it. And it's not unfair, as we can all get access to it |
| JerryBoyle |
03-22-2018 05:55 PM |
Most importantly, it does not give you access to any tri/super/p3/etc matrices
|
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